How have stocks typically acted around presidential elections?
This MarketMinder Minute evaluates the limited authority and potential market impact of a newly elected president.
Forget FOX, MSNBC, CNN, talk radio and all the rest: Everything investors need to know about this election, they can learn from Charlie Brown.
Falling uncertainty as elections approach tends to boost stock market returns.
Britain and Oz and Japan—oh my!
When weighing politics—even Brexit—investors must focus on actions, not talk.
What does Brexit signal about future European elections?
Getting closer to an election won’t automatically roil stocks.
The red briefcase wasn’t the only symbolism in Britain’s budget.
While politics are an input for stocks, bias can exaggerate the degree of importance.
Super Tuesday helped the Presidential race come into focus, but it’ll be another two weeks before markets get meaningful clarity on the eventual nominees.
The referendum is on the calendar, but Brexit talk is still mostly noise as far as markets are concerned.
Can the President of The United States affect sweeping change on his or her own?
Some candidates won, the polls lost, and it’s still too early to handicap November’s race.
The US government passed and signed spending and tax legislation Friday and it was surprisingly good.
Political rhetoric on China doesn’t overlap much with reality.
Stocks care about policies, not personalities.
While Congress’s bipartisan budget agreement dominates headlines, its macro impact is limited.
Like a bad movie sequel, we suggest paying little heed to the latest debt ceiling chatter.
Monday, Canadian voters hit the polls and delivered a new leader a surprise majority. But the broad headwinds facing Canadian stocks and its economy aren’t likely to change soon.
A look at recent political developments shows changes—both potential and real—don’t seem likely to alter markets’ direction.
Greece got its bailout money, but plenty of hurdles remain.
We take a look at one presidential hopeful’s plan to address “quarterly capitalism.”
The UK government’s plans to pass a balanced-budget rule are sociologically sweeping, but their economic and market-moving scope appears limited.
So-called fast-track Trade-Promotion Authority legislation hit the skids Friday, when the House rejected a related bill, hampering US involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Should the rise of populist parties in Spain concern investors?
The UK election’s outcome hasn’t increased political risk for stocks.
Those warning a hung Parliament in Britain risks repeating 1974’s UK stock market plunge overlook several key points.
Oh the places this election could go!
The Debt Ceiling is back—here’s what that actually means.
The 2015 Budget marks the kick-off of UK election season.
Has the Fed become politicized?
Did the new Greek government just #U-turn?
Greek and eurozone leaders said some things and made some plans.
What to make of noisy negotiations between Greece's new anti-austerity government and their European creditors?
President Obama's decision to scrap plans to tax 529 savings plan distributions probably won't have a direct market impact, but it illustrates why stocks like gridlock.
Greece has a new anti-austerity government, but a disorderly euro exit is as unlikely as ever.
Politicking over a Greek exit from the euro resumes.
Four years in, Greece fears are still false—and false fears are bullish.
Did economic reform in Japan just become more likely?
Does Greek political turmoil mean the euro crisis has returned?
What should investors take away from this year’s lame duck?
Whether midterm election results leave you enthralled or enraged, the gridlock they bring is the real reward for investors.
Midterm-election speculation abounds. But what do the likeliest outcomes mean for investors?
Greater collaboration between the Fed and Treasury doesn’t ensure better policy.
Will the House’s big upset put stocks in a pickle?
What does President Obama’s new environmental plan mean for investors?
European politicians’ stance on foreign investment? It’s complicated.
European Parliament elections are quickly approaching—is a bigger euroskeptic movement nearing, too?
Congress’s latest debt ceiling vote doesn’t mean much for markets, but it does shed light on 2014 midterms.
Your holiday gift from inside the Beltway is a lack of new laws.
On the anniversary of his election, reviewing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s progress thus far might prove insightful for Japanese reform in the near future.
Eurozone politics got a little clearer on Wednesday.
Don’t sweat Congress’s latest shenanigans—we still won’t default.
Despite what our President, Treasury Secretary and House Speaker say, hitting the debt ceiling doesn’t mean imminent default.
Should investors fret a possible government shutdown?
What’s next for German Chancellor Angela Merkel after Sunday’s election?
As the federal government prepares to go to the mattresses, should long-term investors be worried if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling?
German elections are a month away and, currently, polls indicate a re-election for Chancellor Angela Merkel. In our view, this apparent lack of political uncertainty is further evidence the eurozone isn’t as bad as feared.
In June, headlines decrying the student-loan rate’s upcoming July 1 rise seemed par for the course—so was politicians’ late-to-game solution this week.
As Australia’s carbon tax U-Turn shows, legislation can and does change—something investors should remember when considering portfolio moves.
A proposed tax on municipal bonds likely doesn’t get through Washington gridlock.
Manufacturing, the Fed and a couple of PIIGS provided a mix of news for investors early this week—some good, some not-so-good and some simply political.
Election updates from the land Down Under to the Land of the Rising Sun.
Snippets from around the web illustrating the market impact of our currently gridlocked government.
If no calamity or even remotely negative consequence ensued from suspending the debt ceiling for three months, why should it return?
Political scandals distract politicians from legislating—a great thing for stocks.
Despite a seemingly pro-business move lowering some taxes on Monday, Hollande’s future legislation likely doesn’t stay on this, or any, set path.
It seems Japanese economic reform may be on ice for now as Abe takes aim at the constitution.
After six rounds of voting, Italy has a president who can now work toward establishing a government.
The Italian presidential election and Germany’s approval of Cyprus’s bailout dominated eurozone news on Thursday.
Chavez’s heir apparent seems set to take power. Whether he maintains it remains to be seen.
The latest efforts to “fix” too big to fail seem unlikely to pass, but their unintended consequences still bear scrutiny.
The tenor of political debate has little economic impact.
The death of a brutal tyrant could be an opening for the Venezuelan people.
The sequester likely has little overall economic impact—and may in fact be useful to both parties.
Financial news exploded with cheers and fears over Italy’s parliamentary elections Tuesday—but the story moving forward seems to be a familiar one.
Roundly viewed as DOA, it seems the Simpson-Bowles plan may get a new life—for now.
With just under two weeks remaining before March 1, the lines seem drawn for a political debate over government spending cuts.
This year’s State of the Union had few concrete economic plans—but the big one, a free trade deal with Europe, should bring big rewards over time.
North Korea staged its third nuclear test. Now what?
Politicians often seem in search of problems for their solutions—so seems the case in the UK’s banking industry.
Silvio Berlusconi’s potential comeback bid may add some drama as Italy’s election draws near, but pro-euro politicians look most likely to emerge victorious.
Congress reached a last-minute fiscal cliff-averting deal—which effectively sets us up for a similar conversation in just a couple months.
If the US falls off the “dairy cliff,” will milk prices double?
A look at the debt ceiling and the Treasury’s extraordinary measures to keep politicians politicking.
Just as the holiday season is reaching its peak, so are debates about the fiscal cliff … At least, they seem to be getting there.
France's attempt to conserve energy use may have unintended consequences.
No matter the political hubbub that follows, Britain’s 2013 budget plans clearly show austerity is still a misnomer, at least in the UK.
Politicians globally were up to their usual games Tuesday—here’s a brief look at a couple instances.
What does China’s leadership transition mean for its economy?
Investors concerned about the impact on stocks from Obama’s second term should consider some key factors.
Politicians engaged in attempting to allocate scarce resources in the Northeast could easily do more good by letting markets do what they do best.
The President’s recent proposal of a new Secretary of Business seems more likely to add to government bureaucracy than to streamline it, whatever the stated aim.
A global glance at economic data to put political rhetoric in context.
Does September’s unemployment rate imply anything about the two presidential candidates’ employment prospects?
The UK announced plans to create a state-backed development bank—a rather odd way to help boost lending, prompted by a rather odd bit of political theater.
Various government bodies are considering changes to the way the financial system is monitored and regulated—and the suggestions don’t strike us as the best ideas.
As the US presidential election draws closer, it provides an opportune time to look at other elections globally.
While we find nearly every politician equally abhorrent, we can find a few issues that shouldn’t sway your vote.
A bifurcated jobs report on Friday likely adds fodder to the political debate over unemployment.
Politicians allegedly reached an agreement to agree to a budget by the end of September—but is the deal worth a gold medal?
While European politicians seemingly took a step forward Friday, Aussie politicians circled.
The Supreme Court declared 2010’s health care reform bill constitutional on Thursday—what does the decision mean for stocks?
Why we don’t need the government to help direct a possible natural gas transition.
Greece formed a coalition government earlier this week, making a Greek exit from the euro even less likely. But Germany would like to escort the Greeks out of another Euro before the week ends.
Capitol Hill’s misplaced (and often contradictory) observations can lead to confused legislation—and, quite often, capital confusion.
The US’s growing service sector, Argentina’s adventures in resource nationalism and the latest on Spain and Germany.
Politicians worldwide played politics as usual Tuesday—here’s a brief sampling.
The Dutch government’s collapse and France’s first-round vote highlight a far-right resurgence, but today’s populism doesn’t necessarily dictate tomorrow’s policies.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s political cat-and-mouse game with European Commission officials seems a little closer to resolution—though the country still faces hurdles ahead.
A look at some historical facts in honor of 2012’s tax day.
Viewing the economy and markets through a political lens can easily lead to investing mistakes.
Before regulators suggest banks dial back their criticisms of planned rules and regulations, perhaps they should keep their confidence in check.
Greece continued to make incremental progress Thursday, and additional signs of the eurozone’s multispeed economy emerged.
Recent news and plans on taxes show politicians globally seem to misunderstand some pretty basic concepts.
A look at falling Italian and Spanish debt yields.
President Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday received the traditional level of scrutiny from both sides—but the chances much actually comes of such political speeches are typically quite low.
Tuesday marked the first US trading day of the year—here’s a quick rundown of some primary stories.
The US Treasury seems poised to request another debt ceiling increase soon. And this time, the exercise seems even more meaningless.
While troubled PIIGS have taken incremental steps forward, eurozone politicians continue to take necessary measures to prevent a disorderly breakup of the union.
The US budget super committee delivered not-so-super results.
Political goofs and missteps are part of the game. Today, we bring you last week’s best of the worst.
GDP was nicely positive, and the eurozone finally seems to have a plan.
The government announced a new plan to shore up underwater homeowners. But will it work?
Connecting the dots between seemingly unrelated events—especially those orchestrated by politicians—is critical to successful investing.
That banks have started charging fees for debit card use didn’t surprise us much—but it seems to have caught politicians off-guard.
Long-stalled free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama appear set to move forward—an incremental positive for the US.
Here's a look around the web at America's overly complicated tax and regulatory codes—and a comparison to put them in perspective.
While the Fed took an incremental step intended to buoy the economy Wednesday, Congress seems committed to quite the opposite tactic—doing nothing.
A Friday look at things recent—and things remembered.
A collection of stories making headlines around the web Tuesday.
President Obama will address the nation Thursday on the current domestic jobs situation—but it’s unlikely solutions come from politicians on either side of the aisle.
Brazil’s latest moves provide investors with an excellent reminder of the importance of thinking globally.
It seems were going to have fewer nonsensical federal regulations following a recent government review. But let’s hope this baby-step doesn’t conclude their efforts.
White-hot, fear-based rhetoric is flying around the debt ceiling as politicians try to sell their positions. And, some links.
Agreement was reached on the newest plan to quell peripheral European sovereign debt issues. What does the deal accomplish?
Eurozone bank stress test results were released recently to widespread criticism.
US manufacturing is alive and well, making government claims there’s a need for a “national strategy” dubious at best.
The US was warned its debt rating is on review, tied mostly to a political debate over an arbitrary marker—something that has happened before with no ill effect.
Recent legislation and its unintended consequences have us asking for a little more conversation and a little less action.
Republicans and Democrats agree—the US has a lot of unnecessary regulation. If only they’d take it a step further.
Pending FTAs with Panama, Colombia and South Korea are caught in yet another political battle.
US firms are beginning to allow investors to “say on pay,” a popular Dodd-Frank provision that likely does little to prevent future disasters.
The Federal Reserve released yet another proposal in response to provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, but practical details were few and far between and likely unnecessary.
S&P downgraded the US’s credit rating outlook by a notch, but it shouldn’t mean much.
Politicians are duking it out in a timely battle over taxes, debts, and deficits. But what will be the market impact when a winner emerges?
Legislation that interferes with free markets can and frequently does have completely unintended consequences—sometimes undermining the very purpose of the legislation.
Talk swirled of a potential government shutdown Friday, but let’s separate the economic wheat from the political chaff.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans continue to battle over the budget.
Recent local elections suggest gridlock is taking hold in Europe.
China recently revealed the blueprint of its economic policies and objectives for the next five years.
Neither the yuan—nor any other currency—will upstage dollar dominance anytime soon.
President Obama revealed his 2012 budget Monday—and true to form, lawmakers are already bristling over proposed spending cuts and tax increases.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner presented three proposals for reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Friday.
Regulations and agreements like the UK's Project Merlin may make unhappy taxpayers feel better, but they're more likely to do harm than address the actual issues.
The FASB's actions speak louder than the FCIC's words.
The President dropped a tempting teaser in his State of the Union address Tuesday night when he discussed deregulation. We've got some ideas of where to start.
The Dodd-Frank financial reform law mandated myriad studies, and they're beginning to roll in—to a chorus of yawns and questions.
|The FCC voted 3-2 to regulate Internet access.|
|The tax rate extension compromise is now law. And predictably, there's both undeserved criticism and unwarranted lauding of the deal.|
|The Dodd-Frank legislation calls for the end of the rating agency oligopoly, an outcome we guardedly support. |
|Will Chinese price controls curb global growth?|
|In a week packed with news, the Fed's policy announcement and midterm elections were mostly as expected and good news for stocks. |
|With midterm elections at hand, many Americans are thinking in terms of donkeys or elephants. Monday's financial news, however, came in the shape of a bull.|
|Financials are finding ways around new regulations faster than Washington can enact new ones. |
|Will big British spending cuts bring down its public deficit without bringing down the economy?|
|US legislation targeting China's currency policy seems ill-advised. |
|Increased political gridlock looks likely—and investors should cheer |
|Japan intervened in currency markets to help its exporters—but will intervention have the desired results?|
|As US midterm elections approach, much of the heated debate surrounds the economy. But buying into their accounts is potentially dangerous for investors. |
|Is there enough political will to pass a contentious energy bill?|
|Even a more stringent look at Europe's banks show they are healthier than many expect. |
|Correction fears continued cycling Wednesday, even as fretted "crises” show signs of moderation. |
|Congress celebrated reconciliation of financial reform on Friday—but there's a lot more paper than substantive reform targeting major factors driving 2008's financial panic. |
|German politicians recently banned naked short-selling of sovereign debt and bank shares. |
|Goldman Sachs has been charged by the SEC for allegedly failing to disclose material information about CDOs. |
|We don't often think much of Washington's "bright” ideas, but clearing houses could be a good thing for some credit derivatives markets.|
|The House of Representatives passed the Senate health care bill Sunday night—what does this mean for stock markets?|
|The White House is hoping to breathe new life into the health care legislation—but is it just a dead bill walking?|
|Senators are dragging their feet over Fed chair Bernanke's confirmation vote, but it's very likely he'll get another term. |
|President Obama proposed further regulation of large financial institutions on Thursday, but lacking details, sent markets into a tailspin. |
|Emerging markets are leading the global economic recovery, but events in Venezuela show not all emerging markets are equal.|
|Japan's new leadership continues to shake things up—leaving investors wondering what's next for the country's stock market.|
|The world is full of rotating characters, and some acts have more power to move markets than others.|
|Besides a talent for haikus, what will the new EU president bring to the table?|
|The financial crisis appears to be over, but thanks to onerous regulations and political scrutiny, Financials' woes aren't.|
|In efforts to get re-elected, Republicans and Democrats alike will continue moving toward the center or risk losing seats. |
|Irish voters overwhelmingly approved the Lisbon Treaty—after saying "no” to the treaty last year.|
|The German parliament is set to shift toward a business-friendly, center-right majority. But the status quo, not significant change, is probably what's brewing. |
|Though Treasury and White House speak of "exit strategy,” financial regulation proposals could mean continued government involvement in the financial sector.|
|Predictably, President Obama nominated Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for another four years Tuesday.|
|If current polls are correct, Japan may soon be saying sayonara to its long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party. |
|Washington's legislative loggerheads could benefit stock investors.|
|The financial regulation debate is raging again.|
|Well before the current round of fiscal stimulus has been fully deployed, let alone allowed to work its mojo, a confused (but ever louder) chorus is calling for the encore. |
|Almost drowned out by the King of Pop and King of Con, a recent Supreme Court decision may negatively affect banks down the line. |
|Big banks are eagerly trying to escape TARP, but it isn't easy. |
|The government's looking overseas for extra tax revenue. |
|When Democratic presidents learn to appeal to voters beyond their party base, history shows markets do very well in their inaugural years.|
|Ambitious cap-and-trade legislation won't get through Congress easily. That's good news for the economy. |
|Political rhetoric continues to focus on banks—this time touching on the idea of nationalization. |
|The 3.5 million jobs promised by the stimulus package is based on fuzzy math, but it doesn't matter much for investors. |
|Government capital infusions to help banks lend appear to be sticks disguised as carrots. |
|TARP's strings are tightening around the banking sector. |
|President Obama's first term may be less revolutionary than expected—and for markets, the less change, the better. |
|President-elect Obama's economic Cabinet picks are experienced economic and political veterans—the usual suspects. |
|The US elected a new president Tuesday night, removing one key uncertainty. |
|Major indexes have declined 20% or more from their highs, indicating a bear market. With the US presidential election at hand, investors face a critical juncture. |
|With the 2008 presidential election in full swing, taxes are a hot topic. What impact might tax policy changes have on markets?|
|The 2008 farm bill passed the House and Senate. That's okay, because it amounts to little more than election year pandering. |
|Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced an "overhaul” plan for U.S. financial markets. But the plan, if it survives, will likely look very different.|
|A "Goldilocks” government solution—just the right amount of government intervention and regulation—in economic markets is merely a fairytale.|
|Treasury Secretary Paulson's new policy recommendations intended to strengthen financial markets could prove to be more bane than boon.|
|Whether you fear a Democrat or a Republican in the White House, you can rest easy. Either way, markets historically perform just fine.|
|Hidden in the credit crisis clamor, a little noticed development makes us smile—no sweeping legislative or regulatory change has taken root.|
|Political changes are afoot. While noteworthy developments, they don't amount to a hill of beans for the global economy and financial markets.|
|The recent Loan Officer Survey paints a dour picture on lending, but a closer look reveals far different results.|
|Bond insurers are struggling to keep their heads above water as ratings agencies evaluate credit ratings. But new companies are entering the market and increased competition promises an improved industry over the coming years.|
|2007 was a year of political rhetoric in the US where virtually nothing got done.|
|As 2007 draws to a close, we consider just a few of the market conditions that could help fuel a continued global equity bull market.|
|A new proposal to aid those in mortgage default danger is bad economics and bad public policy.|
|Australia's new leader, Kevin Rudd, talks a big game of change and reform, but when the political dust settles, expect the status quo.|
|Contrary to popular opinion, a Democrat President and Congress doesn't guarantee a tax hike. Rather, it's conceivable the Democrats maintain the tax cuts for political leverage.|
|In a bizarre twist of irony, the British government exacerbated credit problems by blocking a merger between banks earlier this year. The episode underscores both the perils of government intervention and the gross misunderstanding of today's so-called "credit crunch.”|
|One of the most ridiculous tax bills in US history was proposed today. Good thing it has no chance of passing.|
|Congress is at it again. Their proposed fixes for troubled subprime borrowers are unlikely to solve anything, and most likely will have unintended, negative consequences.|
|Big proposed tax changes and political turmoil in Britain may turn out to be a tempest in a teapot. A simpler tax system may be in the cards for Britain, but British politicians have a long time to foul up positive proposals.|
|While the media focuses on the US 2008 presidential election, many forget the importance of politics on global stock returns. Today, an update and analysis on global politics.|
|Politicians continue to hem and haw, but no legislation of consequence has passed in 2007—a great thing for stocks. Bush's veto of new healthcare legislation is the latest example. |
|Fraught with scandal, gaffes, and general embarrassment, the end of Japanese Prime Minister Abe's reign was closer akin to watching Benny Hill shuffle around the stage than a dignified exit. Antics aside, this doesn't appear to be a crippling event for stock markets or the Japanese economy.|
|How will President Bush's tanking popularity impact the stock market this year?|
|There are two countries about to enact new laws.|
|Here come the Fuzz.|
|Some call him the Ronald Reagan of France; some call him the new Margaret Thatcher.|
|Tony Blair is set to step down as Prime Minister.|
|Our federal government has banged its booming drum today, delivering a baffling decree heading into what's an otherwise blissful spring weekend.|
|Giant, poisonous toads capable of killing crocodiles are bedeviling Australian farmers (as we reported yesterday).|
|According to Investopedia, a Poison Pill is: "A strategy used by corporations to discourage a hostile takeover by another company.|
March Madness is in the air. Everybody's got their favorite to win the men's collegiate basketball championships, and the odds-makers in Vegas are hard at work determining the appropriate lines for each game. In honor of the NCAA tournament, we're breaking down the state of the current US Presidential race, bracket style.
Congratulations are in order to Mr. Al Gore, inventor of the internet and former Vice President, for winning an Oscar in the "best documentary" category for his film denouncing humanity for it's carbon burning ways in "An Inconvenient Truth".
|2007 marks the 300-year anniversary of the Treaty of Union between England and Scotland.|
|One of America's shortest running presidents was also its longest lived.|
|Democratic Senator Timothy P.|
|You may be tempted to view the recent elections in Latin America as further evidence of a growing red tide sweeping the region.|
|The media blitz is on.|
|With the media giddily anticipating tomorrow's mid-term elections, headlines are dominated by breathless commentaries, wild predictions, and 11th hour campaigning.|
|Throw your pencils and notebooks in the air! The 109th Congress is out for the year and they've all gone home.|
|While pundits, the press, and pollsters pine away for results of the US mid-term elections deep into the night on November 7th, we'll be tucked in for a long autumn slumber.||
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