Inconvenient Truths

Don’t Be Swayed by Downgrades


Credit rating agencies continue to downgrade sovereign debt, but this doesn’t mean nations’ finances are imperiled.

No, Slowing Buybacks Aren’t Bearish Either


Pundits flip-flop on stock buybacks but still don’t see reality.

History Shows Election Nerves Don’t Stress Stocks


Getting closer to an election won’t automatically roil stocks. 

The Elusive Passive Investor


That investors are flocking to passive investment products in droves doesn’t make them passive investors.

Living Wills Are No Way for Banks to Die


Bank living wills likely won’t prevent future bailouts or make the next crisis less severe.

Who’s Too Big to Fail Now?


Recent developments suggest the “too big to fail” regulatory environment may be changing.

Britain Doesn’t Need Balanced Growth


Recent data reinforce the notion Britain doesn’t need booming heavy industry to grow.

Does Kris Kringle Make Stocks Jingle?


Whether or not stocks rise around the holidays isn’t important or predictive.

Myopic Media Mind Tricks


A primer in analyzing the supposed “cause” of market volatility.

Abenomics and Other April Fools


With a sales tax hike about to bite an already weakening Japanese economy, the Land of the Rising Sun looks even more like the Land of Rising Disappointment.

A Common Thread Between Horse Manure and Peak Oil


Many Peak Oil theorists’ bleak view of human creativity and lack of understanding of modern science are fatal fallacies.

Macbeth and Mirrorballs

Macbeth is Shakespeare's shortest play, and perhaps his most instructive for politicians. Swap out witches for lobbyists divining the future in a swamp, and it's not Scotland—it's modern day DC.

Michigan’s Tragi-Comedy

Unless you're a Lansing fourth-grader or a Latin geek, it's unlikely you can translate: "Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam circumspice.” But all Michiganders know "if you seek a pleasant peninsula, look about you.”

Deregulation . . . Regulation . . . What’s the Difference?

The problem with the past decade of financial deregulation is there hasn't been any deregulation.

An Army of Willing Dupes

Recently, while waiting to pay an exorbitant premium for organic tomatoes at Whole Foods, I had a revelation. No, it wasn't that the marketing term "organic” is simply the most impressive scam ever widely perpetrated on humanity—though it is.

Gap Schmap


"Income inequality" is the story that refuses to die, and is likely to persist throughout 2007.

Chavez, Gore, and a Yale Tenor Walk Into a Bar...

Good news for Prius-driving San Franciscans.

The Annual Hoff Report

The Hoff report is an annual forecast, not of capital markets, but impending news headlines.


Scanning recent news articles, one cannot help but wonder if the journalistic position de rigeur is the US is a crumbling empire, and the demise can't come soon enough to satisfy The New York Times.

Flipping Housing Bubble

You are in mortal peril.


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