The Fed is signaling well-ahead balance sheet reductions may be coming and, as with rate hikes and QE tapering, this should prove benign for markets.
Why a Fed rate hike should be fine for stocks.
If QE is the bee’s knees, why did no one tell the Japanese?
Fed governors’ recent announcements don’t provide any more insight about the next interest rate hike.
Uncertainty tied to negative yields has fallen.
Once again, the Fed’s Jackson Hole jawboning yielded no useful insight.
The BoE’s recent measures intended to boost growth likely won’t do very much, but that’s okay.
Friday’s disappointing US unemployment report should have little to no weight in your analysis of stocks’ direction.
This MarketMinder Minute looks at negative interest rates and what they mean for the global economy.
A flatter yield curve doesn’t mean recession is around the corner.
Inside the wacky world of “helicopter money.”
The Fed’s relatively new practice of publishing individual members’ forecasts isn’t adding transparency.
The ECB offers an antidote to negative rate fears.
Investors may be starting to notice central banks’ monetary gimmickry is misguided.
The Fed never really penciled in four rate hikes this year.
Rumors of the Fed’s impact on Emerging Markets are greatly exaggerated.
Assessing the impact of rate hike cycles on fixed income investments.
The US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point rate hike Wednesday, the first since 2006.
This MarketMinder Minute examines the impact of initial Fed rate hikes on stocks.
The Fed’s new limits on emergency funding shouldn’t prevent it from acting as lender of last resort in a crisis.
First folks feared the end of quantitative easing, then the first rate hike. Up next: the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet.
An initial Fed rate hike doesn’t automatically mean a stronger dollar.
More quantitative easing would sedate the eurozone, not stimulate it.
What Janet Yellen didn’t say was more interesting than what she did.
Forecasting Fed moves is an exercise in futility, as two financial writers illustrated Thursday.
The Bank of England served up more data, but rate hikes remain impossible to forecast.
The media's mixed message on the Fed's deletion of patience illustrates the folly of Fed timing.
Once again, headlines read way too much into Fed communications.
Has the Fed become politicized?
Here is the history of market action pre- and post-initial rate hike, in a very messy line graph.
Do diverging global central bank policies really spell trouble for the bull market?
Trying to guess what central bankers will do next is a fruitless endeavor.
ECB QE is a thing and we expect similar results as the US, UK and Japanese versions: Misperceptions galore and little economic stimulus.
How central bankers say they’ll act on economic data won’t tell you when the next rate hike is coming.
Did the Fed just tell you when short-term rates will rise?
The punditry has taken to diagramming central bank chiefs’ sentences to figure out their next move. We do the same to show you why it’s all poppycock.
Contrary to the old Wall Street saying, the Fed’s interest rate moves often mean little for stocks.
Is the ECB sleepwalking its way into a deflationary spiral?
If only the Fed were a lot more boring.
ECB President Mario Draghi threw out a slew of measures aimed at boosting eurozone growth and inflation Thursday—but landed far from the target in our view.
Interest rates are up, but so is household lending.
Some suggest the Fed’s decision to continue tapering disregards its negative impacts on Emerging Markets. In our view, a taper isn’t the problem—quantitative easing’s end will be a market positive.
The small reduction in Fed bond buying is a step in the right direction, but likely not a big market mover.
Will rising long-term interest rates choke the US economy?
The only QE left in Britain is Queen Elizabeth, and it seems their economy is better off for it.
Is Japan taking the easy way out with its uncompetitive economy?
A quick reminder for Fed head nominee Janet Yellen: Simpler is often better.
Speculation abounds over monetary policy’s future with Janet Yellen in the Fed’s big chair—but history shows action often deviates from expectations.
Despite media speculation the Fed would begin tapering asset purchases this month, the FOMC held off—at least for now.
While Japanese policymakers and headlines debate a forthcoming sales tax increase, Abenomics’ Third Arrow has seemingly gone by the wayside.
If a picture says 1,000 words, here are 44,000 bullish words.
As folks realize their QE tapering fears are false, their relief should propel stocks higher.
Since the UK stopped asset purchases late last year, it has shown signs of a strengthening economy. In our view, tapering QE in the US likely brings similar results.
China’s had a rough road lately, but the country’s financial growing pains and market wobbles appear unlikely to end the global bull market.
The Fed held steady at Wednesday’s meeting, but Chairman Ben Bernanke said QE may wind down later this year—a bullish outcome, in our view.
In our view, it’s harder to explain away a healthy US economy with Fed policy when overall US and global economic data are also steadily improving.
The Fed and European Central Bank continued policies this week we view as counterproductive to their stated aims.
The Bank of Japan seems poised to move forward with long-expected monetary easing plans.
Data from the FDIC show the Fed’s QE is arguably more stressful than the economic environment itself.
Word has leaked Japanese Prime Minister plans to nominate Asian Development Bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda to steer the Bank of Japan. What can we expect from the likely new chief?
The BOE passed on more quantitative easing—for now.
Japan’s new $117 billion stimulus package may provide a short-term boost, but it doesn’t address Japan’s long-running economic issues.
According to some, a $1 trillion platinum coin wouldn’t just be a sight to be seen—it’d be a solution for the US debt ceiling.
Following more QE, it seems to us many in the media are worried about the Fed’s exit strategy when the entry strategy is actually more problematic.
The Fed announced more quantitative easing Wednesday—which we think rather ill-advised.
Global central banks’ recent actions have some folks fearing hot inflation once again.
The Fed announced QE3 and the continuation of Operation Twist Thursday, but what does it mean moving forward?
Friday, all eyes were on Jackson Hole, but the real action happened in Frankfurt.
Friday, all eyes were on Jackson Hole, but the real action happened in Frankfurt.
Following Olympic swimming relays earlier this week, central bankers had their own relay on Thursday. But what impact will their actions (or lack thereof) really have?
The Fed announced it will extend Operation Twist through year end—but does it give investors a new reason to dance?
Amid rising rates globally, recently elevated Spanish and Italian yields Thursday might not mean what many folks think.
Roughly three and a half years after its hotly debated birth, TARP’s bank bailout doesn’t seem much like the black hole many feared.
Investors should beware allowing popular misconceptions and common media assessments to blindside them when it comes to assessing the economy’s and markets’ overall status.
Greece continued to make incremental progress Thursday, and additional signs of the eurozone’s multispeed economy emerged.
A look at falling Italian and Spanish debt yields.
The Fed announced it will begin releasing its forecasts and longer-term plans for interest rates starting this month—but is this move positive, negative or somewhere in between?
Italian debt auctions this week resulted in incremental improvements in yields to round out a bumpy 2011.
Spanish yields, the ECB and Hungarian politics dominated European news on Tuesday.
Wednesday was a busy day in headlines and markets alike. Here’s a look at some of the day’s more prominent stories.
While the Fed took an incremental step intended to buoy the economy Wednesday, Congress seems committed to quite the opposite tactic—doing nothing.
The Fed’s attempted to increase transparency recently—but has it succeeded, and has it had the intended impact?
With the Fed holding its annual Jackson Hole symposium, talk of QE3 is escalating.
As the free-floating dollar turns 40, we survey the web’s reaction.
Debt ceiling dramatics came to a conclusion Tuesday, leaving many frustrated in its wake. Here’s a look around the news at what’s poking that frustration—and largely unnoticed remedies.
China is likely poised to avoid a hard landing and continue growing, but that doesn’t mean Chinese stocks are set to soar.
The curtain officially descended on QE2 Friday—but given the fanfare it was greeted with, its departure has been fairly quiet.
Many seem to think the Fed has a magic wand it can wave to solve the economy’s woes. But folks seem to believe in monetary policy sometimes and not others.
With June’s arrival comes the last month of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing purchases.
News out of Europe on Monday refreshed PIIGS worries.
S&P once again downgraded Greece’s rating—but EU officials are likely to continue to provide financial support as necessary to avoid a collapse of the euro currency.
Portugal announced preliminary details of its bailout package Wednesday. But are bailouts really the heart of the matter?
Congressional Democrats and Republicans continue to battle over the budget.
The QE2 debate’s already begun, and unsurprisingly, officials and politicians are heavily divided on the subject.
The Fed’s latest stress test will permit select banks to increase their dividends. Hooray! But are the tests asking the right question?
Lost amid the headlines, eurozone officials made positive strides in overhauling bailout fund terms—but there’s still plenty of work to do.
Sharp food price swings are stoking inflation in some countries, but monetary policy likely isn't the answer.
China's attempt to avoid overheating without imperiling growth is a timely reminder of the diversity of Emerging Markets countries.
|The Fed remained cautious in their most recent policy statement even as retail sales confirmed continued economic recovery on the verge of renewed expansion.|
|Irish bailout details failed to calm European nerves, but US investors managed to shake off some of the gloom on encouraging Thanksgiving retail sales. |
|The question of will they or won't they is falling wayside to questions over how much?|
|Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's testimony revealed a weaker outlook for growth—but also expectations for a continued recovery.|
|Greece is once again making headlines, with government bond yields hitting historical highs this week.|
The Fed raised the discount rate Friday—a baby step toward normalizing monetary policy.
|Senators are dragging their feet over Fed chair Bernanke's confirmation vote, but it's very likely he'll get another term. |
|President Obama proposed further regulation of large financial institutions on Thursday, but lacking details, sent markets into a tailspin. |
|The European economy overall continues to show signs of recovery.|
|That some countries are mulling stimulus exit plans is a positive sign the global economic recovery has legs. |
|A year after financial panic compelled the Treasury to insure money market funds, the program peacefully expired last Friday.|
|The financial crisis was a big test, but there's little need to fear the FDIC will run out of money—even as bank failures continue rising. |
|Inflation's absence tells us the Fed's monetary punch is mixed just right. |
|Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke detailed current and future monetary policy in congressional testimony and a Wall Street Journal editorial Tuesday.|
|The government is expected to announce the delay (perhaps a permanent one) of the Legacy Loans Program. |
|Last Thursday's failure of BankUnited was the largest bank failure of 2009, but there's no need to panic.|
|Don't fret the recent rise in long-term US Treasury yields. |
|Beltway bumbling remains a risk to bank stocks but doesn't preclude a broader market recovery. |
|The Fed proved it's a force to be reckoned with, unveiling three additional strategies injecting up to an additional $1.15 trillion into capital markets. |
|Deflation is a near-term risk worth watching, though a severe deflationary spiral is unlikely to take hold in 2009. |
|What's the right pace for monetary stimulus? The answer is not yet certain, though it's likely a severe financial crisis needs an aggressive response. |
|Fed policy makers will likely exhibit both force and caution in their scheduled meetings this week. |
|Rapidly falling prices have many worried about deflation.|
|Cutting the federal funds rate is just one monetary policy tool of many. |
|Central banks and governments around the world have taken up the call to arms. |
|Everyone knew the Fed would hold rates steady—what folks really cared about was what the Fed said. |
|Freddie and Fannie may be proxies for Financials woes in many ways, including in the distortions of mark-to-market accounting. |
|Don't fret inflation shock stories—global inflation remains benign.|
|The Bank of England is redecorating, and the US Fed is their interior designer of choice. What do the new curtains look like? |
|Global central bank activity abounded yesterday. While worth noting, such small moves don't matter much. |
|The recent Loan Officer Survey paints a dour picture on lending, but a closer look reveals far different results.|
|As the FOMC prepares to meet, the media predicts they'll drop rates again to help "save” the economy from a credit crunch. We continue to view credit crisis fears as overblown and largely psychological.||
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