Market Risks

Why Deutsche Bank Isn’t Lehman Brothers

10/03/2016

Germany’s biggest bank has problems, but they aren’t  likely to spark a crisis.

The EU’s Taxing Behavior

09/02/2016

The EU’s recent actions highlight the increasingly hostile reaction to free trade.

Subprime Auto Loans: Not Another 2008

03/22/2016

Subprime auto loans aren’t another crisis waiting to happen.

There Won’t Be an All-Clear Signal

02/23/2016

It’s almost impossible to call market lows, and it’s not necessary to do so to reap stocks’ growth over time.

Presidential Change Has Limited Range

02/09/2016

Can the President of The United States affect sweeping change on his or her own?

Rounding Up Start-of-Year Fears

01/07/2016

A look at the various factors most pundits allege are behind this week’s volatility.

Junk Bonds’ Funk Does Not Mean Stocks Are Sunk

12/08/2015

Recent weakness in high-yield bonds doesn’t necessarily mean stocks are destined for a fall.

Dry Powder Doesn’t Pay

08/31/2015

Waiting for a correction to buy stocks is a fruitless exercise.

Congressmen Attempt to Invite Monetary Error, Fail

03/12/2015

Has the Fed become politicized?

Growing Up With Dodd-Frank

07/22/2014

Dodd-Frank is now one year shy of kindergarten age. And it has as much growing-up to do as your typical preschool tot.

Wholesale Change?

12/03/2013

The skinny on Fed proposals to crack down on short-term money markets.

Writing Down the Volcker Rule

10/02/2013

Regulators are racing to nail down the Volcker Rule by year-end.

SIGHprus

03/26/2013

Cyprus and the EU hashed out bailout terms, but there’s precious little to like about the agreement.

Unintended Stress

03/11/2013

Data from the FDIC show the Fed’s QE is arguably more stressful than the economic environment itself.

A Break in the Regulatory Clouds

01/08/2013

Central bank chiefs eased a key provision of the Basel III banking standards, which should help ease ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

Slow and Steady Spain

05/11/2012

Spanish woes are nothing new, but announcements Thursday could help alleviate uncertainty around its banks.

As Oil Prices Rise, So Do Theories

02/27/2012

Oil prices have risen lately, resurrecting some old theories regarding their impact.

Same Greek Dance, Different Italian Song

02/10/2012

Eurozone officials continue to show ample willingness to forestall a sudden and disorderly euro breakup.

After the Pause

02/02/2012

We expected 2011 to be the pause that refreshed the bull market. So what should 2012 have in store for investors?

Greek Déjà Vu

09/23/2011

New Greek austerity proposals were met with a fresh round of worker strikes. Though unpopular, the incremental changes reflect what Greece most likely needs right now.

The Greek Shuffle

09/19/2011

Greece was in the news—again—last week. Some still await a dramatic end, but is that a likely conclusion?

From Whispers to Murmurs

09/13/2011

Amid heightened rumors of a Greek debt default, a look at Monday’s flurry of Greece-centric headlines.

Politicking and Progress in Europe

08/30/2011

While debate over EFSF changes continues, Greece appears to be making some small headway.

The High-Frequency Debate

08/22/2011

Is the blame often heaped on high-frequency trading for stoking volatility proven beyond a reasonable doubt?

After the Downgrade

08/09/2011

Global markets experienced a sell-off Monday, as investors contended with S&P’s US credit rating downgrade and the ECB’s Spanish and Italian debt purchase plans.

The Politics of Fear

07/27/2011

White-hot, fear-based rhetoric is flying around the debt ceiling as politicians try to sell their positions. And, some links.

Huddling Up on Greece

07/25/2011

Agreement was reached on the newest plan to quell peripheral European sovereign debt issues. What does the deal accomplish?

Grading on a Curve

07/19/2011

Eurozone bank stress test results were released recently to widespread criticism.

French History Lessons

06/28/2011

France announced a plan Monday to help Greece avert a total debt disaster—a pleasant departure from France’s historical record.

PIIGS Political Posturing

06/21/2011

Negotiations over Greece’s bailout took three steps forward on Friday —but two steps back on Monday.

Below the Radar

06/20/2011

If it’s risks you’re assessing, it’s a mistake to stop at headline news.

A Grueling Hike

06/14/2011

Though global stocks aren’t yet down 10% from their peak, this pullback has some characteristics of a correction.

Foggy Financials

06/08/2011

Though regulatory uncertainty is troubling Financials shares, banks are healthier than most think.

What Bubble Hunters Miss

05/20/2011

Hunting bubbles is a popular pastime these days, but is it timely?

Marking to Footnote

05/16/2011

Continuing a trend away from FAS 157, the Financial Accounting Standards Board announced a change to fair value accounting rules Friday.

A Retrospective Call for Introspection

05/09/2011

Friday marked one year since the widely discussed “Flash Crash.” But is the right response increased regulation or increased introspection?

Let’s All Say on Pay

04/26/2011

US firms are beginning to allow investors to “say on pay,” a popular Dodd-Frank provision that likely does little to prevent future disasters.

The Dodd-Frank “Act” Strikes Again?

04/21/2011

The Federal Reserve released yet another proposal in response to provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, but practical details were few and far between and likely unnecessary.

Level 7, by Label Only

04/13/2011

The Fukushima nuclear accident was upgraded to level 7—on par with Chernobyl—but that’s likely where the similarities end.

Iberian Bailout

04/08/2011

Portugal formally requested a bailout Thursday, removing some uncertainty, but questions about eurozone stability remain.

It’s Not What’s Possible That Counts

03/14/2011

Two events Friday highlight why investing based solely on what’s possible is wrong.

What Portugal Portends

03/11/2011

European banking and debt woes are a ways off from a more permanent resolution, and as politicians work on refining one, transparency and clarity are advisable.

Greek Prologue

03/07/2011

Greece’s credit rating took another hit Monday—but what’s really news is what’s happening in the rest of the eurozone.

Muni Meltdown Myths

03/04/2011

Fears of a US muni market meltdown are spreading, but even if defaults reached their worst levels historically, the fallout would likely be relatively limited.

Oil’s Ominous Overhang?

02/24/2011

As oil prices rise, many speculate about the future using comparisons to recent history. But it's important to keep historical comparisons in perspective when making forward-looking decisions.

Unrest at Oil's Door

02/23/2011

Unrest in Libya could have a material impact on global energy supplies and prices.

Fearing Foodflation

02/18/2011

Recent food price increases have many fearing inflation. But foodflation and inflation aren't necessarily one and the same.

Vaguely Inconclusive

02/08/2011

The EU held an economic summit last week—but concrete results were lacking, with dissent across the board.

Egyptian Unrest

02/01/2011

Tensions in Egypt escalated over the weekend as riots continued—but global economic fundamentals remain strong.

Hitting the Mark-to-Market

01/28/2011

The FASB's actions speak louder than the FCIC's words.

Iberian-Induced Anxiety

01/14/2011
Despite successful auctions by Portugal and Europe's periphery, sovereign debt fears remain. However, the worst-case scenario—a disorderly EMU breakup—remains unlikely in 2011.

Astonishingly Average

12/03/2010

The eurozone is on track to post an average year of economic growth.

Getting Hibernia Out of Hock

11/19/2010
Ireland moved closer to a bailout Thursday—and while the media fretted, markets cheered.

Dear Prudence

07/21/2010
Though austerity has its risks, a balanced perspective shows the measures taken could have long-term benefits.

We’re Not Out of the PIIGS Pen, Yet

06/15/2010
Though Greece continues to rattle, market jitters over PIIGS could be short-lived.

C’est Un Bazooka

05/11/2010
The EU unleashed a bazooka-sized rescue package on Sunday.

Goldman on Trial

04/19/2010
Goldman Sachs has been charged by the SEC for allegedly failing to disclose material information about CDOs.

Extra-Special Bulletproof

04/12/2010
Are credit ratings agencies really all that different from other forms of financial analysis? Nope.

Freer + Butter = Better

04/07/2010
We don't often think much of Washington's "bright” ideas, but clearing houses could be a good thing for some credit derivatives markets.

Natural (In)effects

03/02/2010
Though tragic, natural disasters and terrorist attacks have historically relatively minimal effects on markets.

Time and Again

11/17/2009
Time and again, market timing proves to be an attractive—but elusive—pursuit.

Buy Apple Pie

06/24/2009
Rising American protectionism is provoking retaliation. But history's hardest lessons should stem the tide.

No Surprise Here

04/14/2009
Markets are discounters of known information, so they can be jolted by surprises.

Little Air in Deflation Fears

02/10/2009
Deflation is a near-term risk worth watching, though a severe deflationary spiral is unlikely to take hold in 2009.

The Four Corners

12/30/2008
What should investors be vigilant of now? Look abroad.

Our Erratic Queen

11/28/2008
Rapidly falling prices have many worried about deflation.

Monsters Under the Bed

11/06/2008
New data is helping to bring the CDS market out of the shadows.

Ghosts of Lehman’s Debt

10/13/2008
Could part of this past week's volatility been caused by ghosts of Lehman's debt?

Study Abroad

10/01/2008
At the close of a wild third quarter, and with the US Congress taking a day off, we examine global responses to recent financial events.

Monday’s Markets

09/30/2008
After one of the largest down days in years, some new information came to light while other issues remained unresolved.

A Shot in the Dark

09/19/2008
Curtailing short selling is at best a regulatory shot in the dark.

Too Big to Fail

08/19/2008
Will the Fed's expansion of powers prove to be a terrible precedent or a pertinent innovation?

Don’t Fear Failure

07/15/2008
Investors fearing bank failures shouldn't—failures make way for progress.

Speculation Accusation

06/17/2008
Speculation is being blamed for high oil prices, but it's largely a political scapegoat.

Global Inflation Conflagration

06/16/2008
Don't fret inflation shock stories—global inflation remains benign.

The Good, the Bad, and the Not So Bad

04/03/2008
Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony on Wednesday seemingly supports calls for recession in 2008. Scaling the problems reveals slower growth, but a recession remains unlikely.

New Rules for the Street?

04/01/2008
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced an "overhaul” plan for U.S. financial markets. But the plan, if it survives, will likely look very different.

Goldilocks Government

03/28/2008
A "Goldilocks” government solution—just the right amount of government intervention and regulation—in economic markets is merely a fairytale.

Trial by Fire

03/14/2008
Treasury Secretary Paulson's new policy recommendations intended to strengthen financial markets could prove to be more bane than boon.

Let the Market Do Its Thing

02/28/2008
Hidden in the credit crisis clamor, a little noticed development makes us smile—no sweeping legislative or regulatory change has taken root.

The Circle of Life

01/18/2008
Bond insurers are struggling to keep their heads above water as ratings agencies evaluate credit ratings. But new companies are entering the market and increased competition promises an improved industry over the coming years.

A Hundred Bucks a Barrel

01/03/2008
Headlines are making much of oil's new milestone, but price milestones are meaningless and tell us nothing about the economy or market direction.

Top Market Stories of 2007

12/31/2007
A look back at the top market stories of 2007.

But Wait, There’s More

12/12/2007
America's and Europe's central banks have coordinated in an innovative way to make capital available to troubled banks, which highlights the variety of liquidity sources available today for banks.

MarketMinder’s Letter to Santa

12/10/2007
As 2007 draws to a close, we consider just a few of the market conditions that could help fuel a continued global equity bull market.

Resilience

12/07/2007
Pearl Harbor reminds us of the resiliency, strength, and versatility of the United States and its citizens. By comparison, today's perceived economic problems are mere trifles.

Dour as It Gets

11/07/2007
Stocks took a walloping today as media coverage of the economy reached its most dour levels of the year. But volatile markets and grim headlines are nothing new for this bull market.

The Real Risks

10/09/2007
Sensational headlines about subprime woes, a weak dollar, the "credit crisis,” etc., distract investors from seeing legitimate market risks. But never fear—the risks we identify here are unlikely to develop into major market negatives at this point.

Live Long and Prosper

10/02/2007
By not assuming a long enough time horizon or trying to "get conservative,” many investors make critical investing errors seriously impacting their ability to meet long-term investing goals.

October Horrors

10/01/2007
Is another Black Monday waiting for investors this October? Probably not, but expect to see endless headlines warning of coming trouble tied to the 20th anniversary.

Fed Focus

08/16/2007
Will the Fed save the day? Better question, do they need to?

Bearing with Bulls

08/14/2007
Is there anything that could make us bearish right now? Sure, but none seem very likely at the moment.

Free Trade Imperiled

08/08/2007
Is Congress trying to make the media's baseless proclamations that the US economy is dead come true?

Terror’s Toll

07/02/2007
Global stocks just aren't shocked by terror attacks.

House of Horrors

06/28/2007
What's more frightening for investors than the bird flu, a housing bubble, and a subprime implosion combined?

Run Bull! Run!

06/04/2007
As global markets knock new highs, an inevitable question arises: At four and a half years, is this bull done running? Before answering, think if you've heard anyone questioning the longevity of this bull market before.

A Political Punch

05/31/2007
Yesterday's market commentary ("Timing Tortillas") reminded us of one compelling fundamental likely to drive great stock returns this year.

I Dream of China

05/11/2007
Today, Chinese officials announced Chinese commercial banks will be allowed to make foreign stock investments.

Soak the Rich

04/16/2007
Ah, Tax Day! The one day Americans stand united in their utter contempt of their state and federal government.

Do-Nothing Market Heroes

04/04/2007
Our politicians are on a roll with a rash of ill-considered legislation.

Separating the Muck from the Mire

03/01/2007
A couple bad days of trading and—literally—people are starting to lose it.

Don't Go Blind from the Subprime

02/20/2007
If you picked up a newspaper in the past few weeks, you probably saw at least one article detailing the downward spiral of the subprime mortgage market.

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