Market Cycles

Making Sense of Credit Spreads


Tightening credit spreads have some worried about a bubble in the bond markets, but healthy credit markets and historical perspective suggest fears are overblown.

Happy Expansioniversary!


In which we celebrate our elementary school-aged economic expansion.

Market Insights: All-Time Market Highs


This Market Insights video examines all-time market highs and what they mean (or don't) for the market moving forward.

No Easy Bull, Reprise


There are a lot more toeholds up the Wall of Worry.

The Unabridged History of Postwar Elections and Stocks


How have stocks typically acted around presidential elections?

Bear Market? Correction? Why You Shouldn’t Presume All Negative Markets Are Equal


How you can differentiate types of market negativity.

Think Global, Invest Global


Despite recent US outperformance, a global strategy still provides many benefits.

Think Global, Invest Global


Despite recent US outperformance, a global strategy still provides many benefits.

Seven Years Ago Today


A bull market was born.



Some high-profile dividend cuts illustrate the danger of chasing yield.

Valuations—and Valuation Fears—Rebound


Are stocks really overvalued?

Dry Powder Doesn’t Pay


Waiting for a correction to buy stocks is a fruitless exercise.

Are Recession Rescuers Tapped Out?


Many unnecessarily fret the government is out of ammunition to fight the next recession, whenever it arrives.

When Cheap Doesn’t Mean Value


Should investors steer clear of regions that look pricey?

Around the World in All-Time Highs


Are recent all-time highs a warning sign the bull’s end is nigh?  

It’s a Big World After All


US stocks have been hot lately, but a global portfolio remains vital.  

That (Wonderful) Wall of Worry


We’re not out of the woods yet, and that’s bullish.

Mean Reversion and Other Mathematical Fairy Tales


How high is too high for stocks?

MarketMinder on All-Time Highs


Chart Fest 2013!


If a picture says 1,000 words, here are 44,000 bullish words.

Rising Rates, Stocks and the Myth of the Yield Chaser


What do rising interest rates mean for stocks?

Much Ado About Bonds


Some headlines say a bond bear market is in the offing. What should long-term investors do?

The Bull Market Drama Continues


While few investors enjoy volatility, it’s commonplace amid bull markets—don’t let short-term swings scare you out of markets.

Growth, Then Jobs


While Friday’s jobs report was mostly positive, don’t be fooled into thinking the data has a future impact on stocks.

All-Time Highs … and Still Undervalued?


Stocks don’t need gangbusters economic growth in order to keep marching higher.

It’s the (Multi-Speed) Global Economy, Cupid


Japan and the eurozone rang in Valentine’s Day with data showing economic contraction, but overall global growth likely continues as the stronger bits pull the weaker along in the world’s multi-speed economy.

Turning Toward Earnings


Aggregate S&P 500 earnings growth was flat in Q3, but this bull market still has room to run.

Big Takes the Stage


As the bull market matures, what categories of stocks likely lead, and why?

The Bull Turns Three


Friday marks the close of the bull market’s third year—and, in our view, likely the start of a more robust fourth year.

Manufacturing on the Mind


Upon closer inspection, fears of manufacturing’s long-term decline are unfounded.

Unemployment, Overall and on Average


Is a still-high unemployment rate that unusual?

Resetting Expectations


There are two ways to think about recent market negativity—forward or backward. Let’s consider both.

Defining Double Dip


Before understanding if a double dip is likely, it’s important to understand what one actually is.

A Grueling Hike


Though global stocks aren’t yet down 10% from their peak, this pullback has some characteristics of a correction.

April Showers Bring May Myths


May has arrived, and along with it, the often-repeated investing  advice to sell and go away.

America Express


US economic growth is accelerating faster than most of the developed world—boding well for American stocks.

Indicator Acrophobia


Investors should take a cue from stock markets and ignore when indexes hover at round number thresholds.

Ho Hum Housing

The housing market continues to see ups and downs—but we needn't rely on its full recovery to see continued economic growth.

When Parts Move the Whole

A few industries, comprising only a fraction of a sector, can have significant impact on overall performance.

Even Mules Budge

The recent increase in US payrolls suggests a broader economic recovery may be underway.

Paring Shares

US companies' share buybacks have been increasing—shrinking overall stock supply.

And So It Ends

NBER announced the recession officially ended in June 2009.

Lit Crit 101

The IMF's latest outlook, while laced with pessimism, has plenty of good news.

All Else Is Never Equal

Correction fears continued cycling Wednesday, even as fretted "crises” show signs of moderation.

The Fundamental Focus

As stocks waver on euro-worries, global economic fundamentals continue their strong showing.

Wonka Wonka Wonka

The wonks at NBER are delaying declaring the recession's end—but investors needn't care about an "official” declaration.

Timing (Isn’t) Everything

Global markets seem to be back on track after the early 2010 pullback. But expect volatility ahead—it's only normal.

Bottoms Up!

A year after the bear market bottom, we look at how far global markets (and economies!) have come.

Remind Me

Amid recent stock market volatility, it's easy to forget why this bull market will continue. Allow us to jog your memory.

Here Comes . . . a Little Sun

Falling inventories, little talked about, signal continued economic improvement and could help stocks rise over time.

Correct Correction Behavior

After a strong bull market run, a correction this year wouldn't be surprising and shouldn't be feared.

Fall Classic

The global stock rally busted many investing myths so far this year, but don't expect universal acknowledgment any time soon.

Bare Bottom

As the global economy recovers, bare-bones inventories need to rise to keep shelves from becoming equally bare.

Rare Earths

Materials and Emerging Markets are two equity categories likely to lead market recovery. Rare earths, a small subset of Materials, show us why.

Chip, Chip, Hooray

Global semiconductor sales climbed for the fifth month in a row—a confirmation of Tech's stock outperformance so far this year.

The Tortoise and the Hare

Stock prices haven't come too far, too fast. On the contrary, outsized returns are typical for the initial stages of a bull market and are likely to continue.

Alphabet Soup Recovery

Contrary to popular belief, the stock market and the economy don't move in lockstep. Markets can recover in a V—even while the economy L's, W's, or Q's for a bit.

Brainlessly Buoyant?

Stocks' fast pace has some fretting bubbles.

‘Tis the Season

This earnings season, try to remember: Corporate profitability doesn't require improved economic conditions.

Trial by Volatility

Pullbacks are to be expected during market recoveries.

Choose Rubber

Stocks continue to stage a massive rally—despite plenty of bad news.

It’s Okay to Double Dip

At the end of bears and beginning of bulls, lows are often retested. Investors shouldn't fear.

Days of Future Past

Investors can use history to help frame future expectations.

Oxymoronic Growth

That so many want to classify the economy today as being in recession is probably more a function of dour sentiment than economic reality.

Resurrection in Rainbows

As old as myth and Mother Nature, creative destruction is essential to economic progress too.

Soldiers and Generals

A little-noticed change is taking place in market leadership. Small cap stocks are giving ground to large caps and the shift will likely continue.

Let’s Do the Time Warp Again

This market looks a lot like 1998—a great year for stocks!

A Question of Semantics

The question of "correction” vs. "bear” is really a question of semantics.

Fear and the Fed

Market action today isn't warning you to sell—rather, now is the time to remain disciplined and ride out market turbulence.

You Call that Volatility?

There's nothing unusual or alarming about recent market volatility. Though we may not remember it this way, market volatility is normal and should be expected.

Happy Anniversary!

Yesterday the bull market celebrated its fifth anniversary. Hooray! Too bad few are noticing what a great run it's been.

Who Wants to be Normal?

When you were young, did you dream that one day you would grow up to be fairly normal? Maybe you really set your sights high and hoped to live an amazingly average life? No? We didn't think so.

Flying Off a Cliff

Just about every time the markets hit new highs the financial media dig up a veritable cornucopia of old stories from the last time it happened, change the numbers around a bit, and republish them almost verbatim.

With a Little Bit of Time…

Stocks are riskier than bonds, right? We're not trying to trick you.

Production Junction; Market Functions

A lot of economic theory deals with creating value, which we can loosely define as the value of an activity leftover after subtracting from it the cost of doing it (and if you want to get technical, also the opportunity cost of not undertaking an alternative activity).

Much to Be Thankful For

We're a little lethargic from all the turkey and fixings yesterday.

Housing Won't Haunt Real Estate, or Stocks

Most people think of just housing when they read about real estate.


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