Contrary to the crowd, we believe interest rates will end the year lower.
Using apples-to-apples comparisons to underlying assets, the U.S. could afford even more debt.
Corporates shine in 2016’s back half and should continue to start 2017.
Why a Fed rate hike should be fine for stocks.
The Bank of Japan’s latest monetary gimmick doesn’t change much.
Historically low global bond yields don’t mean stocks are in trouble.
Assessing the impact of rate hike cycles on fixed income investments.
The US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point rate hike Wednesday, the first since 2006.
Recent weakness in high-yield bonds doesn’t necessarily mean stocks are destined for a fall.
US deficits and debt are not problematic for the economy.
Pundits offer plenty of explanations for bond market volatility, but bond markets aren’t very volatile by historical standards.
Here is the history of market action pre- and post-initial rate hike, in a very messy line graph.
Do diverging global central bank policies really spell trouble for the bull market?
Trying to guess what central bankers will do next is a fruitless endeavor.
When all news is bad, it's a sign stocks have more wall of worry to climb.
Did the Fed just tell you when short-term rates will rise?
The punditry has taken to diagramming central bank chiefs’ sentences to figure out their next move. We do the same to show you why it’s all poppycock.
It was a Fed-filled week, here’s a look back.
Don’t waste your time overthinking Fed forward guidance—it is merely marketing spin.
Interest rates are up, but so is household lending.
Will rising long-term interest rates choke the US economy?
What do rising interest rates mean for stocks?
Some headlines say a bond bear market is in the offing. What should long-term investors do?
As the Fed eyes QE tapering, how should investors think about bonds?
Interest rates may be up a bit, but the US’s debt is still plenty affordable.
Though interest rates have been rising lately, we don’t see this as cause for concern.
Lower rates at Portugal’s bond auction seem the rational response to improving conditions.
Economic reality doesn’t seem to have influenced Moody’s downgrade of France as much as political pressures likely did.
Amid rising rates globally, recently elevated Spanish and Italian yields Thursday might not mean what many folks think.
The Fed’s increased transparency is an incremental positive, but we reserve judgment on whether it has any material impact.
The Fed announced it will begin releasing its forecasts and longer-term plans for interest rates starting this month—but is this move positive, negative or somewhere in between?
Spanish yields, the ECB and Hungarian politics dominated European news on Tuesday.
An alternate perspective of Italy’s debt costs shows today’s levels are low by historical standards.
A look at what’s in store for Italy’s new Prime Minister, Mario Monti.
With the Fed holding its annual Jackson Hole symposium, talk of QE3 is escalating.
Understanding and separating the negatives from the positive realities can help guide your investing decisions.
Debt ceiling dramatics came to a conclusion Tuesday, leaving many frustrated in its wake. Here’s a look around the news at what’s poking that frustration—and largely unnoticed remedies.
China increased interest rates again in its ongoing battle with rising inflation.
|Inflation was up in 2010, but 2011 shouldn't bring materially higher prices. |
|US bank lending to smaller and medium-sized firms is on the rise. |
|China continued tightening economic policy Monday. But Chinese growth should continue even as other Emerging Markets increasingly realize their potential.|
|Recent bond yield bumps allude to investors wanting more bang for their bucks.|
|Upticks in interbank borrowing rates are alarming some—but rates remain near historic lows. |
|Does an April uptick in Chinese inflation mean its explosive growth is unsustainable? Not just yet.|
|Greece is once again making headlines, with government bond yields hitting historical highs this week.|
|Bonds can lose value too. 2009 was an example. |
|Credit card interest rates are rising in advance of a new law—a good example of regulation gone awry. |
|The US yield curve steepened to its biggest spread in decades last week—bullish for economic growth. |
|The 10-year US Treasury bond yield recently spiked to a six-month high. Rather than cause for concern, it could be a sign of improving conditions ahead.|
|Don't be discouraged if the market takes a breather after two months of climbing. Many underappreciated positives can move markets higher in the months ahead.|
|Members of Congress grilled top bank executives Wednesday on why their institutions haven't been lending. |
|In yet another attempt to address housing market concerns, the feds announced a plan hoping to aid new homebuyers and support housing prices. |
|Central banks and governments around the world have taken up the call to arms. |
|Folks generally associate steep yield curves with inflation—should they? |
|The recent Loan Officer Survey paints a dour picture on lending, but a closer look reveals far different results.|
|America's and Europe's central banks have coordinated in an innovative way to make capital available to troubled banks, which highlights the variety of liquidity sources available today for banks.|
|As the FOMC prepares to meet, the media predicts they'll drop rates again to help "save” the economy from a credit crunch. We continue to view credit crisis fears as overblown and largely psychological.|
|Long-term rates have been moving lower lately, a remarkable story almost entirely ignored by the media.|
|China's inflation rate is soaring. While that's unlikely to derail China's economy in the near term or infect the global economy with higher prices, the problem underscores a still fragile and developing nation fraught with peril for investors.|
|Yesterday's Fed action won't have much impact, which is good news, since our healthy economy requires no rescuing. |
|Today's semi-surprise rate cut of 0.5% by the Federal Reserve featured some bewildering messages, but on balance the move will probably do little to bolster or hinder the economy other than provide a short-term psychological boost.|
|Expectations for a Fed interest rate cut to "save” the economy next week are overblown. Cut or no cut, it makes little economic difference—today's fervor over Fed meetings is more about psychology than reality. |
|What do corrections and family vacations have in common? Way too much.|
|Today's rate cut from the Fed is more symbolic than it is potent…but it may prove to be just the antidote for today's skittish investor sentiment.|
|The freak-outs continue. Dread that credit blood is flowing in the streets of the global economy received another seeming affirmation today. |
News of a faltering credit environment persists, but fundamentals still appear conducive to a robust cash-based M&A market. This week's equity sell-off is likely normal turbulence and not a harbinger of a credit crunch, or a new bear market.
|Today's bond market is not what the bears would have you believe.|
|The 10-year US Treasury has hit a five-year high.|
|For millennia, yogis, sages, Buddhas, and general seekers of wisdom have contemplated the labyrinthine passages of life's mysteries through meditation with mandalas.|
|Yogi Berra made this quote famous: "When you get to the fork in the road, take it.|
|The scramble has begun! More art than science, more augury than empiricism, the pundits and pinheads are dissecting the Fed's newest statement, fresh off the presses.|
|FOMC meetings are some of the most closely watched market events.|
|The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States is 6.|
|The European Central Bank (ECB) is a strange animal.|
|Here's a familiar refrain among our investing peers (tell us if you've heard this one before): The number of outstanding high-risk loans (specifically in the mortgage arena) will eventually lead to an unprecedented number of defaults once we hit the next recession.||
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