GDP

Golly Gee Whiz Willikers, It’s Q3 GDP!

12/02/2016

We looked at the second estimate of Q3 US GDP so you didn’t have to.

Don’t Fret Low Productivity

11/18/2016

Slow productivity growth is no reason for investors to worry.

Q3 GDP Shows More Growth for US and UK

11/03/2016

The UK defies post-Brexit slowdown fears one more time, and US growth figures get a touch overhyped.

Checking in on US Growth

07/05/2016

Recent data suggest the US economy gained speed in Q2.

The Global Economy Is Growing at Now, Now

05/26/2016

May’s data show a blooming world economy. 

Quick Hit: A Few Bullet Points to Shoot Down Lingering Eurozone Fears

05/18/2016

The eurozone economy is on much more solid footing than is widely appreciated.

The ‘Retail Recession’ Label Doesn’t Fit

05/13/2016

Department stores’ recent woes aren’t a sign the US economy is headed for recession.   

Don’t Fret the Q1 US GDP Slowdown

04/29/2016

While growth was slow in Q1, it isn’t a harbinger of worse to come.

Strong Services Sustain Britain

04/27/2016

Another UK GDP report, another round of worrying about the allegedly unbalanced UK economy.

Tapped-Out Britain?

04/04/2016

The UK economy isn’t overstretched, built on sand or any other similar cliché.

Drilling Down On Energy’s GDP Impact

03/31/2016

State-level GDP data provide more evidence Energy’s woes bear the most responsibility for any apparent US economic weakness.

Growth Makes the World Go Round

03/11/2016

The global economy is in better shape than most folks think.

Drilling Deep: How Did Energy Influence US Q4 GDP’s Slowdown?

01/29/2016

Digging into US Q4 2015 GDP growth.

A Dose of (Mostly) Growthy Data

01/20/2016

Most recent economic data run counter to widespread global recession fears.

Beneath US GDP’s Surface-Level Sharp Slowdown, Healthy Growth

10/30/2015

US GDP slowed sharply, but a look at components show this is a function of volatility in one volatile component.

How Real Is China’s GDP?

10/20/2015

Whether or not China’s 6.9% y/y Q3 growth estimate is artificially high, the country should still contribute just fine to global GDP.

Global Economy: Look Beyond Manufacturing

10/08/2015

There is more to an economy than just building stuff.

Nine Straight Quarters of Eurozone Growth

08/17/2015

Despite rampant fretting, the eurozone has now grown for over two straight years.

Four Growthy GDP Reports

08/03/2015

Recent GDP reports show fundamental support for stocks.

China Hits the Target

07/16/2015

Chinese GDP growth matched the official target in Q2, but some fear struggling mainland stocks will soon take an economic toll.

Not All Soft GDP Reports Are the Same

06/01/2015

We have to dig beneath the surface to see what weak GDP reports really mean.

US GDP: Statisticians Will Replace Fuzzy Math With Different Fuzzy Math

05/29/2015

Whether or not US GDP’s Q1 contraction is eventually revised away, nothing here bodes ill for the economy.

Eight Straight and Counting: The Eurozone’s Underappreciated Growth Streak

05/14/2015

The eurozone grew for the eighth straight quarter in Q1, but most pundits are only now noticing.

Why US Q1 GDP’s Potential Negative Flip Is Positive

05/07/2015

Trade surged in March, triggering confused growth fears.

Britain’s Balance

04/29/2015

The UK economy doesn’t need its politicians’ help.

US Q1 2015 GDP: A Widely Expected One-Off Slowdown

04/29/2015

Q1’s GDP report reveals what everyone already knew: Winter weather was nasty, oil drillers cut back, and dockworkers struck.

Pundits Already Lowering Expectations Bar for Q1

03/27/2015

Q4 GDP was revised again Friday, but the real story here is analysts' low expectations for Q1.

A Second Glance at Growth

03/04/2015

Data confirm growth around the world.  

Eurogrowthy

02/17/2015

Eurozone growth defies the skeptics. Again.

The Eurozone’s Underappreciated Improvement

02/10/2015

The eurozone economy has several little-noticed positives.

Global Growth Hasn’t Run Dry

02/05/2015

Actually, new data suggest it’s still plenty hot.

US Q4 2014 GDP: About That So-Called Slowdown

02/02/2015

While headline growth slowed in Q4’s preliminary read, we would suggest the underlying data confirm the US private sector is quite healthy, indeed.

Economic Growth Seems Plenty Durable

01/28/2015

Do recent US and UK economic data show weakening growth?  

China's Great Miss?

01/21/2015

Is a missed growth target a troubling sign for the world’s second largest economy?   

Do Investors Fear Faster Growth?

01/15/2015

An apparent freakout over the World Bank’s reduced economic forecast overlooks the elephant in the room.

This Week in Arbitrary Milestones

12/24/2014

The media reaction to some recent, largely meaningless milestones, seems like a sign of improved sentiment.

No, China Is Not Number One.

12/05/2014

What to make of recent IMF estimates that show, by one measure, China’s economy will be larger than America’s this year.  

Thankful the World Over

11/27/2014

There is much to be thankful for, not just in the US, but globally too.  

Sinking Fortunes in the Land of the Rising Sun

11/18/2014

Not even a recession can dent investors’ optimism for Japan. That’s a problem.

The Eurozone’s Emerging Market Emerges, and Other Fun Q3 GDP Factoids

11/17/2014

The common reaction to eurozone Q3 growth is a sign of the times, sentiment-wise.

US Q3 GDP Solid, Media Take Largely Skeptical

10/31/2014

The advance estimate of US GDP showed growth exceeded analysts’ estimates and continued at a respectable clip—yet media skepticism was easy to find.

The Dismal Art

09/03/2014

It’s unlikely you’d see many headlines touting the fact US GDP growth has been above average in three of the last four quarters. 

The Eurozone’s Not-So-Flashy ‘Flash’ GDP

08/18/2014

Does eurozone GDP’s Q2 stall portend a protracted slump?

Frozen: This Is Not a Kids' Movie

06/26/2014

Q1’s final GDP revision was worse than expected. What does this mean for investors going forward?

On GDP, Fed Forecasts and Tapering Tapering

03/03/2014

The downward revision to Q4 US GDP growth had a big silver lining, but how will the Fed see it?

Dissecting Germany’s GDP

02/26/2014

How should we interpret Germany’s Q4 2013 GDP?

Zero Sum Sentiment

01/31/2014

As seen after GDP’s release Thursday, sentiment is still stuck between skepticism and optimism—for every positive, folks can find a negative.

No Devil in These Details

12/06/2013

US GDP was revised up strongly. But the beat didn’t satisfy dour investors—who tried looking under the hood for something to fret about.

Gross Domestic Problem-Solving

11/08/2013

Good GDP growth is bad news—at least as most see it these days. But we found more positives than problems in Q3’s report.

China’s Reacceleration

10/21/2013

Chinese GDP reaccelerated in Q3, providing more evidence of a faster-growing world economy.

One Quadrillion and Counting

08/13/2013

What should investors make of the news Japan’s gross public debt passed one quadrillion yen in Q2?  

Out of Sight, Out of Mind?

08/01/2013

The latest buzz about US GDP seems to be concentrating on the distant past rather than the impact on the present.

Sentimental About GDP

05/31/2013

Thursday’s downward revision of US GDP likely tells us more about changing sentiment than fundamentals.

US GDP—Better Beneath the Surface

04/29/2013

US Q1 2013 GDP was better than many may presume if focusing on headline growth.

Chinese Checkers

04/16/2013

Chinese GDP slowed a bit in Q1, but the economy should still do fine overall in 2013.

A Little Bit Faster Now

04/01/2013

Fourth quarter GDP was revised higher, which is nice but presages little for the economy or markets moving forward.

Dodging the Dip

03/01/2013

Q4 2012 GDP growth was revised up Thursday, but what impact might the sequester have on future growth and the market?

It’s the (Multi-Speed) Global Economy, Cupid

02/15/2013

Japan and the eurozone rang in Valentine’s Day with data showing economic contraction, but overall global growth likely continues as the stronger bits pull the weaker along in the world’s multi-speed economy.

Some Perspective on the Dip

01/30/2013

US GDP growth took a breather according to Wednesday’s advance report. But under the hood, signs of strength remain intact.

China’s Soft Liftoff

01/22/2013

Recent Chinese data show the country isn’t without economic problems, but a hard landing doesn’t appear to be among them.

Third Time’s a Charm

12/21/2012

US Q3 GDP was revised up on higher personal spending and a downturn in imports. To us, despite headwinds and concerns (which are nearly always present), it’s likely expansion continues ahead.

Three Charts on Q3 (US GDP, That Is)

10/29/2012

US Q3 GDP accelerated in Friday’s report and, despite small fluctuations under the hood, the big picture seems similar to the recent past.

The Usual Suspects in Eurozone Weakness

08/15/2012

Driven by what seem to be the usual weak spots the last few years, eurozone Q2 2012 GDP posted a slight contraction.

Three Views of US GDP

07/30/2012

Friday’s US GDP report showed continued bifurcation between America’s public and private sectors.

Dousing the Flame?

07/26/2012

Has the UK’s Olympic torch been put out before the games officially commence? By some media accounts, yes—but Wednesday’s GDP print merits further examination.

China—Choking or Choking Up?

07/16/2012

China’s GDP release Friday caused consternation among some the global growth powerhouse is choking in the clutch—but what if it’s just choking up in advance of an accelerating second half?

Deflating Chinese Inflation Concerns

07/10/2012

Chinese inflation notched a 29-month low in June, renewing hard-landing jitters—but officials’ pro-growth efforts should keep the economy afloat.  

Debatable Data Doldrums

06/01/2012

US revised GDP was released Thursday to some consternation. And a brief update on US energy industry developments.

The EU’s Great Growth Debate

05/01/2012

As Spain officially re-enters recession, EU leaders debate how to stoke growth.

’Tis But a Scratch

04/26/2012

The UK released its first Q1 GDP reading Wednesday to some disappointment. 

British Pop

04/12/2012

Recent data show plenty of pop in the British economy.  

Depictions of Growth

04/11/2012

If it’s true a picture’s worth a thousand words, how many are these two worth?

Japan, One Year Later

03/13/2012

One year after the Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, the Japanese economy is displaying its resilience.

Slow Eurozone—No Surprise

02/16/2012

Eurozone GDP for Q4 2011 came out Wednesday but probably surprised very few—thereby lessening the likelihood it surprises markets much either.

The Grass Is Greener Than Many Think

01/30/2012

Friday’s US Q4 2011 GDP report showed growth continued—and accelerated for the third quarter in a row.

Transatlantic Economics Tuesday

11/16/2011

In economic news Tuesday, eurozone GDP grew modestly, US wholesale inflation was tame and US retail sales grew again.

A Dash of Growth and a Pinch of a Plan

10/28/2011

GDP was nicely positive, and the eurozone finally seems to have a plan.

Differentiating Europe’s Periphery

09/26/2011

While peripheral Europe is often referred to collectively, this obscures the fact the issues confronted are different in magnitude, severity, potential resolutions and progress.

A Retail Pop

08/12/2011

Amid steep market volatility, it’s important to recognize the widely discussed negatives but also to balance them against material economic positives to get a clearer view.

Half Full or Half Empty?

08/03/2011

Debt ceiling dramatics came to a conclusion Tuesday, leaving many frustrated in its wake. Here’s a look around the news at what’s poking that frustration—and largely unnoticed remedies.

Across Shining Seas

07/06/2011

Isolationism has no place in economics or investment strategy.

What’s Up Is Up, What’s Down Is…Up

05/27/2011

While Q1 GDP was unchanged, dueling headlines said corporate profits both rose and fell.

A Bump in the Road

05/23/2011

Individual countries may hit economic bumps in the road to recovery, but on the whole that shouldn’t stop the positive forces propelling the global economy forward.

Mending Lending

05/04/2011

A new Fed survey shows banks are healthier and lending is improving, but profit margins may be squeezed awhile longer.

Not Running on Empty

04/29/2011

Preliminary US Q1 2011 GDP came in below expectations, but varying speeds in a growth cycle are perfectly normal.

Another Five-Year Plan

03/09/2011

China recently revealed the blueprint of its economic policies and objectives for the next five years.

When 777.7% Doesn’t Equal Growth

02/22/2011

Japanese protectionism plays a large role in the country's economic malaise. But reforms—including greater openness and free trade—could help buoy economic growth.

More With Less

02/03/2011

Growth continues to surge in the US thanks to increasing productivity.

Chinese Inflation Conundrum

01/21/2011

China's attempt to avoid overheating without imperiling growth is a timely reminder of the diversity of Emerging Markets countries.

The Many Gifts of Capitalism

12/24/2010
This holiday season, we'd like to say thanks to corporate America for gifts given all year—and their gifts are the kind that keep on giving.

Classic Divergence

12/15/2010
The Fed remained cautious in their most recent policy statement even as retail sales confirmed continued economic recovery on the verge of renewed expansion.

Astonishingly Average

12/03/2010

The eurozone is on track to post an average year of economic growth.

Five Spooky Fears Dispelled by US GDP

11/01/2010
Fears are commonplace early in economic expansion—but a clear-minded review of US Q3 GDP shows many are simply ghost stories.

All Is Never Well

10/27/2010
UK Q3 GDP doubled expectations and shows how even moderate growth can upset too-dour expectations.

An Import-Led Recovery

08/02/2010
Friday's US GDP release provided an interesting look back at the second quarter—and a trip way back to revise dated data.

Improvements for the Average João

06/11/2010
While not a brand new story, rapid Emerging Markets growth is as current as ever.

We’re Okay, Euro Okay

06/08/2010
German industrial activity shows not all is bleak in the eurozone.

Third Time’s Also a Charm

05/03/2010
The US economy expanded for the third consecutive quarter.

Underdogs Victorious

03/01/2010
The US and most Emerging Markets beating Q4 GDP expectations signals the global economy is alive and well.

This. Is. Good. News.

02/01/2010
As US GDP grew at its fastest pace in six years, the pessimism of disbelief finds reason to doubt.

A Race We All Win

01/19/2010
It's easy to think the developed nations make the world go round—but don't discount the up-and-comers.

Data Drawbacks

12/24/2009
Economic data—what's in those numbers?

Pacific Politics

12/11/2009
Japan's new leadership continues to shake things up—leaving investors wondering what's next for the country's stock market.

London Fog

10/26/2009
British GDP declined for the sixth straight quarter, fueling fears the UK may recover slower than most countries.

A Sign of Better Days to Come

10/01/2009
US Q2 GDP was revised higher—but fears about the economy and consumer spending continue to weigh on many folks' minds.

Bye-Bye, Recession?

09/17/2009
Recent talk of the end of the global recession isn't new news to investors.

A One-Two Punch

03/02/2009
Stock prices dropped today on dour news from the banking and economic fronts.

Building the Wall of Worry

02/02/2009
GDP dropped 3.8% for Q4 2008—a dismal end to the year. Economic news will likely get worse in 2009, but expect the market to improve before the economy.

Housing Wobble

01/26/2009
The heavy emphasis on the latest housing data belies its light GDP weight.

Nothing’s Shocking

10/31/2008
Thursday brought further global liquidity support and weak (though expected) preliminary third quarter GDP data.

What Recession?

08/29/2008
US GDP was revised up from 1.9% to 3.3% for the second quarter, once again surpassing dour expectations.

Chi Non Saltare…

08/13/2008
Italy's economy contracted a bit in the second quarter, but global results are far more important than any single country.

Recessionism

08/01/2008
As second quarter 2008 GDP came in stronger than expected, headlines still find reason to be gloomy.

Long Train Runnin’

07/31/2008
Investors looking for anecdotal evidence miss some hard data, like transports, which remain strong--unlikely to happen during recession.

Yes, But…

05/29/2008
Economic growth continues positive to the tune of overly dour expectations.

Inconspicuous Consumption

05/02/2008
Despite persistent fears to the contrary, consumers continue to spend.

Phantom Storms

05/01/2008
The economy grew in the first quarter, but some still question whether the country is in a recession.

Still Growing

01/30/2008
While some are swooning over the "worst economy in five years,” a sober analysis of preliminary US GDP figures released today shows an economy still on strong footing.

Housing Humdrum

01/29/2008
Though bad news from the residential housing sector continues making headlines, it won't have the long-term economic or market impact investors fear.

Wag the Dog

01/25/2008
Global stocks bounced around this week and fears emerged that problems in the US have finally spread to the rest of the world. But in the global economy, it's a mistake to assign too much power to any one country.

Nothing New

01/15/2008
Stocks took a walloping today on widely expected news tied to Financials' health and mortgage-related asset write-downs.

Imagine: The Gaia Economy

11/23/2007
Globalization has made iconic baby-boomer utopian images of world unity closer to reality than ever.

Vector Investing

09/27/2007
Large and diverse economies (such as the US) require huge dislocations to impede economic growth—most concerns like subprime and new housing supply simply aren't big enough to matter.

Good Data, Bad Information

06/01/2007
Corporate profits are beating expectations.

Dying of Old Age

03/29/2007
Economies aren't like people.

Whoop Whoop Whoop

03/07/2007
The incompetence of government-run systems cannot be overstated, and we cannot belabor that point enough.

The Flying Economy

01/08/2007
We've written before about how investors latch on to metaphors, often erroneous ones, in order to better understand economic and market concepts.

More Connected Than It Looks

12/05/2006
We've written often on this page about the importance of trade and the interconnectedness of the global economy, and how in turn these promote greater total economic growth.

Stocks Don't Look Back to the Future

10/27/2006
It's official: US GDP growth slowed in the third quarter.

Four Growthy GDP Reports

07/31/2000

Recent GDP reports show fundamental support for stocks.

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