Forecasting

No, Slowing Buybacks Aren’t Bearish Either

05/31/2016

Pundits flip-flop on stock buybacks but still don’t see reality.

The ‘Retail Recession’ Label Doesn’t Fit

05/13/2016

Department stores’ recent woes aren’t a sign the US economy is headed for recession.   

The Long and Short of Long-Term Forecasts

05/11/2016

No, stock market returns aren’t headed for a low plateau.

Don't Believe the Energy Hype

05/09/2016

Energy stocks have outperformed lately, but they still face many headwinds.

Don’t Fret the Q1 US GDP Slowdown

04/29/2016

While growth was slow in Q1, it isn’t a harbinger of worse to come.

Listen to Markets' Signals

03/01/2016

Markets often send distress signals long before the bad outcomes materialize.

There Won’t Be an All-Clear Signal

02/23/2016

It’s almost impossible to call market lows, and it’s not necessary to do so to reap stocks’ growth over time.

Feeling Sentimental in 2016

01/13/2016

We expect the bull market to continue in 2016, with sentiment the big swing factor. 

Does Kris Kringle Make Stocks Jingle?

12/24/2015

Whether or not stocks rise around the holidays isn’t important or predictive.

How to Approach the Season of S&P 500 Forecasts

12/03/2015

Answer: With Caution.

The Fruitless Folly of Forecasting the Fed

09/04/2015

Forecasting Fed moves is an exercise in futility, as two financial writers illustrated Thursday.

Energy Stocks Are Running on Empty

08/18/2015

Fundamentals point to continued low oil prices.

The Missing Lesson: Unfriend the Trend

06/26/2015

Beware forecasts that simply extrapolate the year’s start forward.

The Year in False Fears

12/30/2014

A retrospective on 2014’s false fears.

Priced Targets

12/03/2014

Instead of focusing on these short-term, myopic forecasts, investors should look to the longer-term trend. 

Adventures in Forecasting: CBO Edition

08/28/2014

Whether you think they’re too sunny or sour, the Congressional Budget Office’s latest debt forecasts probably won’t match reality.  

Jobs Report Dandy, Analysis a Dud

07/04/2014

June’s jobs report was Yankee-Doodle dandy, but it doesn’t mean a thing for stocks.

Going Against the Flow?

06/10/2014

Does it matter that stock ownership, by one measure, was at near-record lows 18 months ago?

Smoothed O"PE"rator

10/08/2013

The Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio is above its long-term average, but this doesn’t mean poor stock returns are in store.

Book Review: Signals, Noises, Foxes, Hedgehogs, and Bayes

08/30/2013

Nate Silver has written one of the best books on forecasting I’ve ever read.

A Peek at Prior Peaks

04/15/2013

A graphical look into market history shows all-time highs don’t predict future market results.

Big Takes the Stage

08/09/2012

As the bull market matures, what categories of stocks likely lead, and why?

Forecaster Faceoff

07/17/2012

The IMF’s and other groups’ updated economic outlooks dominated headlines—a sure sign of a slow financial news day.

After the Pause

02/02/2012

We expected 2011 to be the pause that refreshed the bull market. So what should 2012 have in store for investors?

January Jonesing

01/24/2012

With January’s returns positive thus far, the “January effect” seems to have vanished from consciousness.

Market-Moving Myopia

09/08/2011

Markets seemed to cheer Germany’s Wednesday court ruling supporting recent eurozone bailouts—but what does that tell you about stocks’ longer-term outlook?

The San Francisco Fed’s Generation Gap

08/25/2011

Conclusions drawn from demographic data about the future of equity market demand sources seem initially compelling but break down under further scrutiny.

Fisher Investments on China’s Three Pillars

07/13/2011

China is likely poised to avoid a hard landing and continue growing, but that doesn’t mean Chinese stocks are set to soar.  

Defining Double Dip

07/07/2011

Before understanding if a double dip is likely, it’s important to understand what one actually is.

Not So Breaking News

06/27/2011

A primary risk to investors is overemphasizing something old or wrong.

Below the Radar

06/20/2011

If it’s risks you’re assessing, it’s a mistake to stop at headline news.

On Economic Calls and Data

05/26/2011

The OECD’s biannual report Wednesday indicated global recovery’s on track, though threats remain. What should investors take from such forecasts?

Checking the Inner Gut Strategist

04/04/2011

Economic growth and positive market returns continued in Q1 2011. But what of investor sentiment?

Black Swans or Gray Pigeons?

03/17/2011

As the media bemoans an increasing prevalence of “Black Swans,” it’s worthwhile to consider the definition and whether it’s truly applicable to recent events.

America Express

03/02/2011

US economic growth is accelerating faster than most of the developed world—boding well for American stocks.

Astonishingly Average

12/03/2010

The eurozone is on track to post an average year of economic growth.

A Recent History of Technical Analysis’ Recent History Lessons

10/18/2010
Technical indicators frequently grab investors' attention—but let's use recent history to assess their success.

Un-charted Territory

08/26/2010
Forget technical indicators, patterns, signals, lines in the sand, etc.—none are consistently reliable predictors of stock market direction.

Projecting on Growth

05/27/2010
A recent OECD report significantly raised global economic growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011—despite European debt woes.

Flipping the January Argument on Its Head

02/02/2010
Markets finished January in the red, but that doesn't tell investors much about the year.

Onward

12/29/2009
What are the experts saying about 2010? And what should investors do about it?

Time and Again

11/17/2009
Time and again, market timing proves to be an attractive—but elusive—pursuit.

A Strong Second Six

09/30/2009
As earnings season looms, stocks should continue their "V” recovery, with sentiment outweighing fundamentals.

CB-Uh-Oh?

08/27/2009
Investors shouldn't fear the CBO's deficit prediction—it matters little to stocks. 

Bangladeshi Butter Indicator

08/11/2009
Beware extrapolating past stock returns to predict future ones.

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

06/23/2009
Investors seem discouraged by the World Bank's dour economic forecast, but even "official” forecasts don't really mean much for stocks.

Too Fast, Too Furious?

05/12/2009
Some traditional stock valuation metrics are quickly approaching long-term averages. But compared to investment alternatives, stocks are still very cheap.

No Surprise Here

04/14/2009
Markets are discounters of known information, so they can be jolted by surprises.

Odds Are

02/26/2009
Markets falling to previous lower levels doesn't necessarily portend poor returns ahead.

What You See May Not Be What You Get

12/29/2008
Those seeing negative economic data today should remember the stock market prices in future expectations.

Days of Future Past

12/09/2008
Investors can use history to help frame future expectations.

Durably Good

08/28/2008

Some folks fear July's surprisingly good durable goods result will be fleeting. Though this is unlikely, weakness in a given country or sector won't necessarily change strength overall. 

What Now?

07/22/2008
Investing based on how you wish you could have six months ago is typically a good way to make a larger error.

Analyzing Analysts’ Analysis

04/23/2008
Analysts play an important role in capital markets' evolution. However, their end result—ratings, estimates and price targets—should be taken with a grain of salt.

Groundhog Day 2008

12/18/2007
Many of the market gurus have made their 2008 stock market predictions. Before making your own, we'd advise some critical thinking and skepticism.

Overseas Opportunity

02/07/2007
We're outright bullish on stocks for 2007.

The Sweetest Year

01/25/2007
We like anomalies, especially anomalies that few know about.

T.G.H.

01/11/2007
January is a stressful month for stock investors.

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