Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction shows what makes the best forecasters successful.
Pundits flip-flop on stock buybacks but still don’t see reality.
Department stores’ recent woes aren’t a sign the US economy is headed for recession.
No, stock market returns aren’t headed for a low plateau.
Energy stocks have outperformed lately, but they still face many headwinds.
While growth was slow in Q1, it isn’t a harbinger of worse to come.
Markets often send distress signals long before the bad outcomes materialize.
It’s almost impossible to call market lows, and it’s not necessary to do so to reap stocks’ growth over time.
We expect the bull market to continue in 2016, with sentiment the big swing factor.
Whether or not stocks rise around the holidays isn’t important or predictive.
Answer: With Caution.
Forecasting Fed moves is an exercise in futility, as two financial writers illustrated Thursday.
Fundamentals point to continued low oil prices.
Beware forecasts that simply extrapolate the year’s start forward.
A retrospective on 2014’s false fears.
Instead of focusing on these short-term, myopic forecasts, investors should look to the longer-term trend.
Whether you think they’re too sunny or sour, the Congressional Budget Office’s latest debt forecasts probably won’t match reality.
June’s jobs report was Yankee-Doodle dandy, but it doesn’t mean a thing for stocks.
Does it matter that stock ownership, by one measure, was at near-record lows 18 months ago?
The Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio is above its long-term average, but this doesn’t mean poor stock returns are in store.
Nate Silver has written one of the best books on forecasting I’ve ever read.
A graphical look into market history shows all-time highs don’t predict future market results.
As the bull market matures, what categories of stocks likely lead, and why?
The IMF’s and other groups’ updated economic outlooks dominated headlines—a sure sign of a slow financial news day.
We expected 2011 to be the pause that refreshed the bull market. So what should 2012 have in store for investors?
With January’s returns positive thus far, the “January effect” seems to have vanished from consciousness.
Markets seemed to cheer Germany’s Wednesday court ruling supporting recent eurozone bailouts—but what does that tell you about stocks’ longer-term outlook?
Conclusions drawn from demographic data about the future of equity market demand sources seem initially compelling but break down under further scrutiny.
China is likely poised to avoid a hard landing and continue growing, but that doesn’t mean Chinese stocks are set to soar.
Before understanding if a double dip is likely, it’s important to understand what one actually is.
A primary risk to investors is overemphasizing something old or wrong.
If it’s risks you’re assessing, it’s a mistake to stop at headline news.
The OECD’s biannual report Wednesday indicated global recovery’s on track, though threats remain. What should investors take from such forecasts?
Economic growth and positive market returns continued in Q1 2011. But what of investor sentiment?
As the media bemoans an increasing prevalence of “Black Swans,” it’s worthwhile to consider the definition and whether it’s truly applicable to recent events.
US economic growth is accelerating faster than most of the developed world—boding well for American stocks.
The eurozone is on track to post an average year of economic growth.
|Technical indicators frequently grab investors' attention—but let's use recent history to assess their success. |
|Forget technical indicators, patterns, signals, lines in the sand, etc.—none are consistently reliable predictors of stock market direction.|
|A recent OECD report significantly raised global economic growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011—despite European debt woes. |
|Markets finished January in the red, but that doesn't tell investors much about the year.|
|What are the experts saying about 2010? And what should investors do about it?|
|Time and again, market timing proves to be an attractive—but elusive—pursuit.|
|As earnings season looms, stocks should continue their "V” recovery, with sentiment outweighing fundamentals.|
|Investors shouldn't fear the CBO's deficit prediction—it matters little to stocks. |
|Beware extrapolating past stock returns to predict future ones. |
|Investors seem discouraged by the World Bank's dour economic forecast, but even "official” forecasts don't really mean much for stocks.|
|Some traditional stock valuation metrics are quickly approaching long-term averages. But compared to investment alternatives, stocks are still very cheap.|
|Markets are discounters of known information, so they can be jolted by surprises. |
|Markets falling to previous lower levels doesn't necessarily portend poor returns ahead. |
|Those seeing negative economic data today should remember the stock market prices in future expectations.|
|Investors can use history to help frame future expectations. |
Some folks fear July's surprisingly good durable goods result will be fleeting. Though this is unlikely, weakness in a given country or sector won't necessarily change strength overall.
|Investing based on how you wish you could have six months ago is typically a good way to make a larger error.|
|Analysts play an important role in capital markets' evolution. However, their end result—ratings, estimates and price targets—should be taken with a grain of salt. |
|Many of the market gurus have made their 2008 stock market predictions. Before making your own, we'd advise some critical thinking and skepticism.|
|We're outright bullish on stocks for 2007.|
|We like anomalies, especially anomalies that few know about.|
|January is a stressful month for stock investors.||
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