Finance Theory

Volatility (or Lack Thereof) Isn’t Predictive


Low or high, volatility is a distraction.

America’s Pristine Balance Sheet


Scouring through the US’s balance sheet finds little to worry over.

Book Review: Philosophy’s Stake in Finance


Emanuel Derman’s Models.Behaving.Badly is perhaps the best contemporary work of financial philosophy.

Listen to Markets' Signals


Markets often send distress signals long before the bad outcomes materialize.

The Happy Medium


Chasing hot technology and super long-term investment opportunities might sound exciting, but it’s often a fool’s errand.

It’s a Big World After All


US stocks have been hot lately, but a global portfolio remains vital.  

Nobody’s Fool


It’s a mistake to heavily weight hypothetical past returns when performing due diligence.

Corrective Action


Understanding and separating the negatives from the positive realities can help guide your investing decisions.

Half Full or Half Empty?


Debt ceiling dramatics came to a conclusion Tuesday, leaving many frustrated in its wake. Here’s a look around the news at what’s poking that frustration—and largely unnoticed remedies.

Judge Not

Economic decisions aren't only about money and prices—judging what makes good economic sense can be subtler than many believe.

Don’t Fear Failure

Investors fearing bank failures shouldn't—failures make way for progress.

Passive Manipulation

The headlines are full of funky new "economic” indicators, but they can be just as misleading as old-fashioned statistics.

Constructive Destruction

Stock buybacks hit a record in 2007 for S&P 500 companies, removing an enormous amount of share supply from the market.

Don’t Get High on Someone Else’s Supply

The law of supply and demand is Econ 101 basics. But few consider it when analyzing stock markets.

Not Quite to the Nines

Investors tend to justify beliefs by searching out patterns where there are none and assigning meaning to the meaningless.

Unfathomable Miscellany

We like unfathomable things—they're the stuff good investments are made of.

Foxy Investing

Many centuries ago, the Greek poet Archilochus wrote: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.

OMG! Big Telecom Returns

Editor's Note: Today's commentary is written in half English, half Texting language.

To Seek The Grail

"Whoso pulleth out this sword of this stone and anvil is rightwise king born of all England.

Knowing and Understanding


- What I cannot create, I do not understand.

- Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.

Go Global

If you're like most investors, you probably shy away from global investing, preferring to focus on the S&P 500 and US stocks and mutual funds.

Disciplinary Action

There's a lot of talk in the popular press these days about an "imminent" US recession and the tired old legs of this bull market.

Asymmetric Investing

It's pretty rare that anyone finds an investment that can't go down.


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