Home → Fisher Investments MarketMinder Headlines → 12-2009 Archives

Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Worried about Europe? True, it could well lag in the recovery…but the fact remains that it IS recovering. And while Greece’s problems seem huge, they likely won’t hinder the eurozone’s overall recovery. See our 12/18/2009 cover story, “Big Fat Greek Deficit,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Seeking Alpha, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Does the government allocate capital poorly? Heck yes! But fact is this perspective does no good for investors seeking to forecast stock returns. See our 10/27/2009 cover story, “Not Just Debt Weight,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Barron’s , 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Unless you’re a big time trader on a big time trading desk (you’re probably not), what happens in a single month matters little for those with long-term investing goals.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Expect more Financials to see trouble in 2010. It’s not necessarily a sign of more bad times ahead, rather, a completion of the cycle. The economy will move ahead while many Financials continue to ail.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View:
What is this, a Danielle Steele novel? New bulls are typically as strong as the preceding bear was weak. This isn’t new.
Sensible Stories
By , Carpe Diem, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View: In an increasingly global world, protectionism hurts, not helps. Luckily, this trend is very small scale so far. See our 06/24/2009 cover story, “Buy Apple Pie,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Telegraph, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View:
No matter if you look at developing countries relative to developed ones, or as just stand alone, the growth rates are stellar—this rally has fundamentals behind it and will likely continue at least a while longer.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Free people and free markets have always been the best guarantors of American economic growth.” Amen–but why limit it to the US? It’s true for the rest of the globe too.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View: Markets were restored to their “animal spirits” and it’s looking like treasuries are set to experience their poorest performance in decades.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 12/31/2009
MarketMinder's View: An unintended consequence of government intervention and pay caps. See our 08/06/2009 column, “Hoopla Over Pay,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , BBC News, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Few things are more typical after a bear market than gun-shy stock investors. Inevitably, and sadly, they get left behind as the new bull charges ahead—as happened this year.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: Opinions will vary about the pace of recovery, but one thing much less debated today is whether there will be one at all. The economy and capital markets have come a long way in 2009.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Congress is likely to address the temporary lapse in the estate tax sooner rather than later.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: This is a subset of Japan’s stimulus program. Stimulus will continue into 2010 through most of the globe and bolster markets and the economy.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: The Chinese government announced it would make it easier for foreign investors to start businesses in the country—a positive sign of potentially freer markets ahead. This is part of a larger trend other developing regions like India and Brazil have been involved in for some time now.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: Emerging market equities were strikingly successful in 2009. Future growth potential in these economies will bolster the globe. It’s been an important year to think in terms of the benefits of investing and thinking globally.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 12/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Tariffs continue to cause tension—and hinder free trade—between US and China. This ruling was still small in scope, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Telegraph, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Global stock markets are in danger of hitting full bubble territory.” Why? Because they’ve gone up a lot? Just because something has risen a lot doesn’t mean it’s a bubble. It just means people fear heights—a normal part of the wall of worry stocks like to climb.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: The Fed proposes adding a new tool to its arsenal, which could be used as a potential inflation-fighting facility.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Times, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: This article is almost exactly backward. Past periods when the government has been as big or bigger than it is now as a percent of GDP have been followed by fine economies and stock markets.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: We disagree. We got the lessons. Armageddon did not arrive as widely forecasted. Fundamentally, our markets are more resilient than folks think.
Sensible Stories
By , The Christian Science Monitor, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: “But markets are also the only reliable mechanism for sorting out this messy process quickly. In spite of the booms and busts, markets drive genuine long-run innovation and wealth creation.” Amen. Let free markets ring.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: A look into just a few of the many things worth celebrating in 2009, including stellar stock market returns.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Some good news, but we wouldn’t be surprised if hiring was still fairly slow in 2010. Employment lags the economy, which lags the market. This is normal, not a harbinger of doom.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: These comments are too US-focused. The US might be sluggish, or might not. But the global economy will likely continue following the non-US portion, particularly emerging markets. And though the US is a large single economy, it’s just a third of the world. The larger pulls the smaller, not the other way around.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: In general, we agree. It’s not likely we see the glum “new normal” popular in the media. Flat decades like we just had are rare and historically followed by much stronger decades. But forecasting more than 12 to 18 months out is fraught with peril.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Fears over free trade are foolish—time and again, we see free trade actually helps, not hurts, economies as a whole. See our 11/19/2009 cover story, “Lopsided Trade,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Der Spiegel, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: The EMU seems confident Greece’s financial problems can be solved internally—a positive sign of stability in Europe. See our 11/12/2009 cover story, “More Countries, More Problems,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The stock market sometimes moves astonishingly fast, yet much patience is required to take advantage of those swift moves.” Unfortunately, investors in “wait and see” mode have missed out on a tremendous stock market recovery since March. See our 11/17/2009 cover story, “Time and Again,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: We generally don’t put much stock in economists’ forecasts, but this is a good analysis of why the US economy is likely to fare much better than many expect in 2010.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Sydney Morning Herald, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
China has been a leader in implementing stimulus measures. The economy and stock market have reacted positively—a sign stimulus measures are working, not that a “bubble” (maybe the most overused word in finance) is forming.
Market Misperceptions
By , Washington Times, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
This article simply makes incorrect assumptions about the effects of stimulus spending. Stimulus spending is intended to jumpstart the economy when the private sector isn’t spending, and it’s helped do just that. As the economy picks up steam, stimulus spending won’t be required to sustain economic growth.
Sensible Stories
By , Greg Mankiw’s Blog, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: A cogent article examining why inflation fears are likely overwrought.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The last 10 years happened to be bookended by two recessions and big bear markets. But the world hasn’t been stagnant during this decade. To say the last 10 years were a time in which we “learned nothing” is false. The lessons learned are invaluable and will likely help make the economy even more robust in the future. See our 12/28/2009 cover story, “A Look Ahead,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN, 12/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: After some rocky procedural votes, the Senate passed their version of the health care bill. However, this isn’t over. Merging it with the House’s version will likely be tricky and take some time—anything can happen from here. See our 12/23/2009 cover story, “The Ghost of Christmas Future,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , MarketWatch, 12/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: Expect to see more profits as more banks continue to repay their government loans. An excellent sign of banks continuing progress to health.
Market Misperceptions
By , Daily Finance, 12/24/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The Dow ceased to be significant awhile ago. As a price-weighted index with only 30 stocks, it’s hardly representative of the US as a whole—so even if it hits 20,000, it’s still “ain’t what it used to be.” See our 06/02/2009 cover story, “Don’t Bow to Dow,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 12/24/2009
MarketMinder's View:
So what? Both a weak and strong currency has pros and cons. Neither is inherently preferable. Plus, historically, a strong or weak dollar has no meaningful correlation to stock market movement. Ignore, and see our 08/15/2008 cover story, “The Dollar and You,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , MSN Money, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Historically, periods of widespread pessimism have coincided with excellent times to buy stocks for the long haul.” Yep, stocks love to climb a wall of worry.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: Oy. More “new normal.” At the end of every recession and bear market, folks always assume growth going forward must be slower. And the worse the recession, the shriller those calls. It’s never different this time. As the economy recovers, business spending will pick up—that’s just how it happens after recessions.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: A look at the positives reflected by the steep yield curve, as well as other factors that may contribute to a continuing rise in stocks as well as economic growth in the year ahead. For more, see our 12/15/2009 cover story, “Yields Signs.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: There is widespread interest in snatching up commercial real-estate loans extended by failed banks (the formerly “toxic” assets), and this flurry of demand has the potential to drive the prices of the loan packages higher—all good signs!
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: In a move widely seen as a step toward a more wide-ranging trade pact between the two, China and Taiwan signed three trade agreements yesterday. Freer trade is always a net positive for the trade partners—and the world.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: Raising taxes—especially adding a VAT of 25.5%!—during a period of economic downturn (which Iceland is still struggling with) likely does more harm than good.  While it may seem like a short-term solution to curbing the deficit, it also has the potential to stall recovery on the whole.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: Not surprising. Recessions often continue to feel worse long after recovery has begun. However, investors who wait to feel better about where the economy stands are apt to miss a significant portion of the new bull market. For more, see our 8/20/2009 cover story, “Alphabet Soup Recovery.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The New Republic, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: America’s manufacturing sector is as big as the entirety of German’s economy, and continues to grow. So concerns over it shrinking are misinformed at best.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: A look at a few of the phrases that have pervaded the financial world, and society as a whole, over the past year. Most are utterly meaningless.
Sensible Stories
By , BBC News, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: This was a better result than feared: “Greece remains in the A zone, so that reduces the risk of Greek bonds not being eligible for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) funding even after the end of 2010.”
Sensible Stories
By , Carpe Diem, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: The yield curve—the difference between short- and long-term interest rate on government bonds—is at a high. The steep yield curve is generally a good forward indicator for bank profits and economic growth. For more, see our 12/15/2009 cover story, “Yields Signs.”
Market Misperceptions
By , MoneyWatch, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: That this piece wavers about its own policy prescription is evidence of just how tough monetary policy is. No doubt, the Fed can/should be critiqued, but the bottom line today is Financials are in recovery mode—thanks in part to huge monetary stimulus efforts.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: The US economy is stronger exiting 2009 than most believed possible—this in turn is compelling economists to raise forecasts for Q4 and into 2010.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: Protectionist measures like this hinder competition and discourage free trade. Let’s hope it remains relatively small and contained, as it has so far.
Market Misperceptions
By , New Zealand Herald, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: Ah, one of our all-time favorites: The Global Misery Index. Mostly based on inflation and unemployment levels, it’s no surprise the reading is higher now than last year for many major economies—unemployment typically rises after a recession peaks.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: Regardless of where you stand on bonuses, investors should be thankful for banks’ relative return to health and newfound freedom from the dole—it’s been vital to the 2009 market recovery.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: Just as the Fed innovated hugely to pump money into the system at the height of the crisis, so too is it capable of innovating when it comes time to take money out. But the appropriate time for that is at least months away.
Sensible Stories
By , Carpe Diem, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The US manufacturing sector is alive and well, and the US is still the largest manufacturer in the world.”
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: Although the downward revision to third quarter GDP was more than analysts expected, it still indicates Q3 economic growth. Additionally, continued inventory declines (a detractor to GDP) are a bullish signal for the future.
Sensible Stories
By , Carpe Diem, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Few people realize this is true. Manufacturing employment has been shrinking because more efficient manufacturing processes enable firms to make more with less manpower. But US manufacturing is alive and healthy. See our 12/08/2009 cover story, “Skip the Double-Dip,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Much like “sell in May and go away” and other silly sayings, the “Santa Claus rally” is nothing but a stock market myth. What stocks do over exceptionally short periods doesn’t indicate anything about longer-term performance. Right now, there are plenty reasons to be bullish about stocks that have nothing to do with a jolly, bearded guy doling out presents (insert Bernanke joke here).
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Because hiring new, permanent employees is expensive, it’s one of the last things firms do after recession. As the economy improves, they first extend overtime hours and hire temporary workers—exactly what we’re seeing now. Eventually, they’ll hire full-timers, and the unemployment rate will improve. Expect stocks to move higher before meaningful improvement in employment data. See our 11/09/2009 cover story, “Unemployment’s Jab No Knockout,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: “What some see as imbalances can also be described as a system of capital and goods in constant motion.” In other words, supply and demand—on a global scale.
Sensible Stories
By , Los Angeles Times, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Excellent advice for investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Many pundits remain pessimistic about the economy. That’s a good thing. When expectations are low, it’s far easier for results to exceed them, pushing stock prices higher. We’d be really worried if the so-called experts saw nothing but good times ahead. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Weaker banks failing in tougher times is nothing new—and their demise won’t affect the ongoing bull much, if at all. See our 05/26/2009 cover story, “Extreme Makeover: Bank Edition,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Good news for continued recovery. See our 12/15/2009 cover story, “Yield Signs,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 12/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Nope, not surprising at all. We’ve long said banks wouldn’t be happy with TARP’s compensation restrictions—so it’s no surprise they’re going to great lengths to get out from under them. See our 01/22/2009 cover story, “Strings Attached,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: This flies in the face of two popular notions: Foreign demand for US assets is dying and real estate can never recover.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: We wouldn’t agree with everything here, but this is spot on: “investors swayed by the general pessimism have been missing out on extraordinary gains in risky asset prices since early this year.”
Sensible Stories
By , BBC News, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: While Europe undoubtedly has more banking challenges ahead of it, things have stabilized greatly in contrast to last year.
Market Misperceptions
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Calling the stimulus plan the “costliest fiscal failure in US history” is overblown. Of course government spending is inefficient, but unprecedented stimulus played a key role in jumpstarting the economy.
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: Maybe it will be M&A, or something else. But all that corporate cash will be used one way or another, boosting business activity. See our 12/17/2009 cover story, “Cash Rich,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Economist, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: “But if London is to maintain its status as a financial hub, it needs to attract foreign financiers, not drive them away.” Amen.
Market Misperceptions
By , Washington Post, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: The absolute debt level feels high, but relative to the size of the economy, it’s manageable. For more, see our 10/27/2009 cover story, “Not Just Debt Weight.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Economist, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: At what point might these folks be comfortable? After stocks are up 100% instead of just 70% from the bottom? Wall of worry waiters get left behind in bull markets.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: Looks like markets will dance with Ben for another term. For more, see our 12/4/2009 cover story,” The Devil You Know.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: The bar brawl for banking regulatory authority will be important for investors to watch as 2010 develops.
Market Misperceptions
By , Asia Times, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: China has grown tremendously and is blazing the trail for global recovery. For more, see our 12/14/2009 cover story, “Country Matters.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: Japan continues its highly accommodative monetary policy.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Consumers are more resilient than most believe—this insidious notion crops up after every recession and is nothing new. See our 8/17/2009 cover story, “The Report of the Consumer’s Death Is an Exaggeration,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Telegraph, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Whatever happened to good old economic growth? Isn’t that a good way to revive general prosperity too?
Market Misperceptions
By , The Street, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
No doubt, more banks will fail in the new year—that’s the normal hangover of a credit bust. But these features are very well known and reflected in stock prices today. The banking industry will recover, albeit slowly, and the economy and stocks are very likely to recover faster banks.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: Signals of economic revival continue.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: "Confidence in our financial system has improved, credit is flowing, and the economy is growing." See our 12/03/2009 cover story, “Exits in Sight,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNBC, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Pessimism typically floats in the air during nascent bull markets, nothing new here. Stocks love a wall of worry to climb.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The offer highlights the eagerness of financial institutions to expand in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region.” Global growth continues, and companies are beginning to deploy their ample capital. See today’s cover story, “Cash Rich,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , International Business Times, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The supply of the dollar is hardly putting a damper on US Treasury investments—foreign investors are still very much interested in US debt and treasuries, not to worry.
Market Misperceptions
By , Los Angeles Times, 12/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Weekly and even monthly employment reports will be erratic and aren’t good indicators of future stock returns coming out of a recession—employment revival tends to lag.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: Yep, what we expected.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It isn’t just the US and UK bashing bankers. While this may make some feel better, it has little impact, doesn’t address what caused the credit crisis, and won’t prevent asset bubbles from forming. Price caps, even on salaries, just cause distortions.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The change in tone among analysts from a year ago is remarkable, when trading desks around the world were shaken by the worst financial crisis since the crash of 1929.”
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: Recoveries in the labor market take a while, but layoffs have slowed, temporary jobs have picked up, and productivity has surged—all signs an employment recovery (albeit a slow one) is in the fore. Though the economy doesn’t need improving employment to begin recovering, this likely confirms economic recovery is well underway.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: An interesting look at specific factors boosting the economy over the past six months—and why the trends are likely to continue.
Market Misperceptions
By , Washington Post, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Keeping firms under the government’s thumb doesn’t translate to a successful recovery in any industry. Banks are eager to repay TARP funds because they are adequately capitalized and ready to return to business.
Market Misperceptions
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Just thinking it through for a minute, you realize the US isn’t in a remotely similar situation to Dubai and Greece. Relative to history and other developed nations, America’s current debt level isn’t alarming.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: Inflation fears are still premature, despite yesterday’s producer price report—some inflation is precisely what the expansionary economic policies of the past year aimed for. For more, see today’s cover story, “A Buck for the Barber.”
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: The automaker is set to repay the $6.7 billion in quarterly installments. It’s generally positive news, though US automakers won’t likely be as vibrant as they once were—not for years and perhaps not ever.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: Thawing structured debt markets would be a huge step toward reviving credit markets—as investor interest in structured debt grows, loans will be easier to get.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Maybe. Of course, recession is always a risk. And we agree hurling insults at bankers isn’t productive. But the US and world economies are already in recovery mode. There are much bigger forces at play here than political bickering.
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: We would agree—people are quick to classify “bubbles” and are constantly looking for the next bubble to burst. That said, one way to look at it is “since all trades balance, bubbles quite simply don't exist.”
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: Wells Fargo is set to join its competitors in repaying “bailout” funds—a sign big banks are on much healthier footing than they were.
Market Misperceptions
By , Washington Post, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Folks love fretting debt. But past periods when we had debt as high or higher didn’t lead to economic or market ruin. Interest rates remain very low, which means we can easily afford our debt. Debt’s not bad. In fact, debt’s so good, right now our government is actively trying to get banks to issue more of it to people like you and me because they know credit helps our economy grow.
Market Misperceptions
By , ABC News, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Or maybe a resurgence in demand for some goods has more to do with a recovering economy and little to do with the much villainized “banker bonuses.” Consumer spending overall is much more resilient than people think.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Dubai fears continue in headlines, but the market has clearly moved on. For more, see our 11/30/2009 cover story, “Much Dubai About Nothing.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Minyanville, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Seems like no one will ever tire of this fear, even though it’s quite normal for recoveries to be jobless for some time. Firms will start hiring once sales rebound, not the reverse. Growth leads to jobs. It’s a bit irrational to expect firms to hire before they’ve seen profitability return.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: The US is holding steady in one part of its monetary stimulus.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: Citi is the last big bank still tied to TARP. Just a year ago, it seemed unfathomable big banks overall would be in such a relatively healthy position.
Market Misperceptions
By , Los Angeles Times, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
No, we’re not. Banks being able to pay back TARP loans is a good thing—it’s evidence Financials are now on surer footing and want to shed the restrictions that came with government money. All good things. See our 12/10/2009 and 01/22/2009 cover stories, “TARP Controversy” and “Strings Attached,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Some always think more regulation equals higher chance of avoiding financial crises like last year’s. That’s simply wrong—bubbles, booms, and busts are just normal. Trying to regulate our way out of them likely just leads to more distortions. See our 01/05/2009 column, “Deregulation…Regulation…What’s the Difference.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Slate, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Trade isn’t at peak levels right now—common in recessions. It doesn’t mean the world is ”deglobalizing”—rather countries still acknowledge the many benefits of free trade continue signing new trade agreements. See our 11/19/2009 cover story, “Lopsided Trade,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: This is good news for Dubai, certainly. But note, Dubai’s problems have little affected stocks globally. For more, see our 11/30/2009 cover story, “Much Dubai About Nothing.”
Sensible Stories
By , BusinessWeek, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: A simpler tax code and fewer taxes would be a good thing for everyone—higher and complicated taxes cause confusion and discourage private sector job-creation and spending in general.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Historically, all economic recoveries experience high and even growing unemployment—initially. Then, when firms start seeing profits, they start hiring again, in that order. See our 11/09/2009 cover story, “Unemployment’s Jab No Knockout,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Carpe Diem, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: Sure looks like a bull market to us! See our 11/02/2009 cover story, “Fall Classic,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: “All it will do is drive the global banks out of London and wind up putting the government in an even deeper fiscal hole.” Well, it’s not likely all banks will up and leave, but price caps in general, even on salaries, are just silly and don’t do what people want them to do. They just create distortions.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: First, note, periods of high budget deficits have historically been followed by great stock returns and strong growth. Don’t fear the deficit. And second, because deficits aren’t to be feared, it’s silly to reduce productivity by taxing our way out of them.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: “While the debate over excessive compensation started on Wall Street, it shouldn’t end there.” Sure! Except, who will they decide earns too much next? Pro athletes? Movie stars? Doctors? Accountants? You? There’s no evidence that price caps—even on salaries—do any economic good and will only lead to distortions.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: 2018? Why not 2020? 2037 perhaps? Long-term forecasts—bullish or bearish—are fraught with peril. There’s no way to predict what forces will impact stocks 3 years from now—let alone 5, 10, or more. Plus, historically, stocks tend to rise much more than fall. If you’re thinking long term, odds favor being bullish.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: At the risk of sounding like a broken record, unemployment always lags economic recovery. It’s simply sound and rational finance to ramp up hiring only after sales improve. Not before. Growth leads to jobs, not the reverse.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: Positive news abounds as the world regains its strength.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: China continues to flourish, leading the global economic revival.
Sensible Stories
By , CNBC, 12/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: As usual, reports of the death of US consumers have been greatly exaggerated.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: The BOE decided to keep monetary stimulus measures firmly in place—which makes sense as they lagged the world a bit in initiating stimulus measures. For more, see our 12/03/09 cover story, “Exits in Sight.”
Sensible Stories
By , MSN Money, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’d caution against 10-year forecasts. However, it’s likely the next year or so at least sees a strong continuation of the current bull market.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New Republic, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: Should the government create jobs or lower the deficit? How about neither? The private sector is vastly better at creating jobs. Letting them do that increases overall wealth, which leads to higher tax receipts and a lower deficit (if the deficit bugs you). Done and done.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: Not quite right—the world is actually heading back to growth mode. Particularly in China, which is leading the world in recovery.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: Both were overhyped and likely to have little to no market impact. For more, see our 12/9/2009 cover story, “A Grecian Knot.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The Treasury’s standing by their decision to further extend TARP. We think the work has already been done. Mostly, this is likely an attempt to recapture some political capital and, though unnecessary, probably doesn’t have major market impact. For more, see today’s cover story, “TARP Controversy.”
Market Misperceptions
By , International Business Times, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: Lots of errors in this. How can someone say stocks have poor yields when they’ve been up so much since March? There’s no fundamental reason to think dividend-paying stocks are any better or safer than non-dividend paying stocks. The truth is, dividends or no, now is a great time to be bullish on stocks overall.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Big banker pay is a popular point to attack. And while taxing it may make some feel better, it won’t prevent another asset bubble from happening. Bubbles are a natural feature, not the result of someone making too much money. So tax away, but let’s not pretend it’s some systemic improvement. 
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: Relying on one technical indicator (e.g. trading volume) to indicate when and if the stock market rally is going to fail is short-sighted. There are many factors at work determining the market’s direction—don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It’s not surprising many Americans “feel” like the economy’s still in recession—that sentiment is likely to continue for a while. However, that doesn’t mean recovery isn’t underway—it’s beginning to show in official data. Sentiment typically lags by a lot.
Market Misperceptions
By , MoneyWatch, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“I just think that investors…are tired right now and need a break. Let’s admit it—this has been an exhausting year and we’re all entitled to refuel.” Good thing people get tired and stocks don’t.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: As a leader in the global economic recovery, China is preparing to scale back a number of its accommodative policies. However, leaders wisely remain cognizant of potential economic challenges ahead and will maintain many other stimulative measures.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: While overall market impact is probably minor, locations unfriendly to employers and employees lose to those more friendly. And moves like these likely chase talent away from an industry that desperately needs to retain it.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Businesses unexpectedly added to inventories at the wholesale level in October, breaking a string of 13 consecutive declines.” As retail sales start to recover, businesses will need to restock shelves left bare by months of inventory cutting—a good step toward recovery.
Market Misperceptions
By , MoneyWatch, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
There are numerous reasons why annuities are usually rotten options for some investors. Try this one: You’re paying the insurer (a lot!) to disperse your own money back to you.
Market Misperceptions
By , Portfolio.com, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: While debt concerns for some countries may rattle markets (e.g. Greece), America is still among the world’s very best credit risks, if not the best. If you want something safer with deeper markets than the US, where are you going to go?
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 12/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: No one expected TARP to be perfect. The program achieved its chief priorities: Halting the panic and stabilizing financial institutions. Imperfectly, sure, but all government programs are inherently faulty and inefficient.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: An interesting look at mergers and acquisitions this decade.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
If you’re waiting for a risk-free investing environment, it’ll be awhile. As in, forever. Fact is, there are always risks.
Sensible Stories
By , MarketWatch, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Some important questions to ask and answers you should expect to receive from your money manager.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
This is a prime example of spinning benign news negatively. It’s good that a bank is repaying TARP funds—another sign of stabilization.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Globe and Mail, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We highly doubt the United States’ or Britain’s triple-A credit ratings are going anywhere. For more, see our 11/13/2009 cover story, “Downgraded.”
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: The Fed Chairman believes we are in “very good shape” and expects to even turn a profit on some bailout funds. This seemed inconceivable just a year ago.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: The wall of global stimulus continues—though we wish Japan wouldn’t have dragged its heels so much.
Market Misperceptions
By , American Thinker, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“If drastic measures are not taken soon our national debt will be a burden owed to foreign interests for every future generation for the rest of the twenty-first century.” This is way overblown. Ignore. For more, see our 10/27/2009 cover story, “Not Just Debt Weight.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Emerging markets ain’t what they used to be. Today’s “emergers” are really more like “semi-developed”—with their own engines of internal demand and burgeoning middle classes. The frontier markets today are actually more like what emerging used to be. Got it? (Just read the article.)
Sensible Stories
By , Telegraph, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: Well, of course they would. This isn’t hard—if you make doing business more expensive, businesses will find a friendlier place.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Gold’s best year in three decades has yet to match the returns of an interest-bearing checking account for anyone who bought [gold] during the last peak in January 1980.” Yep. For more, see our 09/10/2009 cover story, “The Bling Fling.”
Market Misperceptions
By , CFO.com, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Doomsayers exist, always. Fact is, the most recent recession has far more differences than similarities with the Great Depression. Because global governments and central banks reacted quickly providing a wall of fiscal and monetary stimulus, it’s likely recovery is underway.
Market Misperceptions
By , Seeking Alpha, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Up or down, someone’s always decrying the dollar’s movements as impending doom for stocks. Fact is, the stock market’s performance is little tied to the dollar’s fate.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Street, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View:
First, all economic recoveries are jobless recoveries—at first. Firms will hire once demand for their products rises, not the other way around. Second, the trade gap historically doesn’t predict economic health or stock market movement. See our 11/19/2009 cover story, “Lopsided Trade,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Kudlow’s Money Politics, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: Positives to note about jobs numbers.
Sensible Stories
By , WalletPop, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: A cogent article describing the risks and unintended consequences of over-regulation. We’re all for more competition, but just breaking up the big boys doesn’t necessarily get us where we want to go.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 12/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: There were a lot of panicked headlines over the Dubai crisis, but note: Stocks didn’t seem much bothered and continued rising. Simply, Dubai’s debt problems are relatively small, globally. See our 11/30/2009 cover story, “Much Dubai About Nothing,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Well, 10% unemployment still ain’t great, but is an improvement. But it’s worth noting that stocks began recovering nine months ago. Employment has always been a poor stock market indicator.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It seems no one is interested in investing in Venezuela’s banks. Go figure.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Ultimately, this is a classic “it’s different this time” perspective. For more, see our 11/17/2009 cover story, “Time and Again.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
As the economy continues a nascent recovery, it behooves the Fed to keep policy accommodative. Once stimulus efforts take full effect, rates will likely rise. See today’s cover story, “The Devil You Know,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Doubts flourish over Sarbanes-Oxley—parts of this onerous law are being challenged in the Supreme Court. Worth keeping an eye on.
Sensible Stories
By , Los Angeles Times, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: As the big US banks regain strength, they’re paying off their TARP money—a positive signal of stability.
Sensible Stories
By , MarketWatch, 12/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Comparing the US economy to Germany’s or Zimbabwe’s is ludicrous—current conditions hardly measure up. For now, inflation remains a potential future concern, not a certainty.
Market Misperceptions
By , USA Today, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
A few bumps in the road to recovery are typical during a bull market—expect a few more along the way. This is normal activity, not something to fear. 
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The early economic reports about holiday shopping are confusing, contradictory, and useless.” We would agree. Ignore instant play-by-plays on holiday shopping. These early reports (surveys mostly) don’t say much about overall economic health. See our 11/25/2009 cover story, “Black Friday X’s and Os,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Minyanville, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Actually, compared to stocks, gold has historically had miserable returns in the long run. For more, see our 9/10/2009 cover story, “The Bling Fling.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Morningstar Inc., the research firm known for its mutual-fund analysis, is now wading into the controversial realm of credit ratings.” This is something to be watchful of.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: The eurozone is in full growth mode and reported readings above the neutral level for October and November.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Fears the FDIC is underestimating losses and is in need of a little handout from taxpayers abound. But we hardly think the FDIC will run out of cash anytime soon. For more, see our 09/03/2009 cover story, “FDIC Out of Cash?”
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: More countries are looking for an exit from stimulus—a positive sign this recovery has legs. For more, see our 12/3/2009 cover story, “Exits in Sight.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Smart Money, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Global recovery is thriving—Dubai World’s troubles won’t have a significant impact on world growth. For more, see our 11/30/2009 cover story, “Much Dubai About Nothing.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“The chances of a relapse into recession seem to be rising.” This analysis says another recession is coming because the stimulus was too small and its impact fleeting. Except, the stimulus money isn’t even half spent, and it ignores the massive amount of cash being deployed globally.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: The Fed does its first test of reverse repos to withdraw monetary stimulus. This is worth keeping an eye on—particularly since other nations are feeling confident enough to begin enacting their own exits.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: Japan’s central bank continues to demonstrate a commitment to policy flexibility as its economy struggles toward recovery.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: In the wake of the Dubai World debt crisis, it’s evident the global financial system is in much better shape than a year ago—but minor disruptions could still occur. “Fortunately, the last week has suggested that the world economy might now be able to handle any one of these problems. Dubai was a stress test, and the financial system passed.”
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
True, equity returns haven’t been rosy over the past 10 years. Does that mean we’re due for lousy returns in the next 10? Absolutely not. Periods of lackluster returns are frequently followed by periods of strong returns.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: As financial institutions recover, the need for additional emergency funding is waning. This is a positive for broader market stability.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: It took months of debate for the House Financial Services Committee to vote in favor of a financial reform bill—a key legislative priority for the administration. But similar to health care reform, the Senate provides a much larger stumbling block for the bill. The longer it takes to reach a final compromise, the more moderate the bill’s provisions likely become.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: China continues to lead global economic recovery: “Two surveys suggest that China's crucial manufacturing sector is continuing to expand on the back of the government's stimulus policies, and on some recovery in private demand.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
An extreme example of too much government involvement in the economy.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Stamping out growth because it may, at some point, form a bubble is dangerous business. True bubbles aren’t so easy to spot, and the Fed hasn’t been particularly good at seeing them.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 12/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Despite claims to the contrary, a tax on financial transactions would be borne by more than just a few Americans. Raising financing and investing costs is hardly a solution to economic woes.
Market Misperceptions
By , International Business Times, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Of course, it’s always true economies face future potential problems. The question is whether they manifest. Right now, the world is in recovery mode and looks to continue on that path.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Short selling isn’t the villain many believe it to be—it provides liquidity and leads to more efficient pricing in the markets.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Post, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The stock market is a leading indicator. Unemployment numbers have likely already been priced-in and won’t drag the market down as being suggested here—jobs tend to recover after the broader economy, not the other way around. See our 11/9/2009 cover story, “Unemployment’s Jab No Knockout,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Yahoo! Finance, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Consumers are more resilient and in less peril than most believe. See our 8/17/2009 cover story, “The Report of the Consumer’s Death is an Exaggeration,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: “China’s manufacturing grew last month at the fastest pace in five years…helping Asia to lead the recovery from the global economic slump.” This has been the story since the recovery began, and continues.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The tagline of this story reads: “As housing goes, so goes the economy—and it's not going great.” This simply isn’t true. Residential construction today accounts for less than 3% of US GDP growth.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Monetary stimulus continues and is a positive. But note that those late to the game (namely, Japan and the UK) have largely lagged in recovery so far this year.
Sensible Stories
By , Yahoo! Finance, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: AIG is paying back a $25 billion portion of the bailout it received last fall—continuing a trend of financial system stabilization and return to profitability.
Market Misperceptions
By , SmartMoney, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Introducing Mr. and Ms. Doom! No news yet from the Vatican on whether their missives will replace the Book of Revelation anytime soon.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 12/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Manufacturing remains on the rise and is expected to stay on such a path into 2010, along with the broader economy.