Home → Fisher Investments MarketMinder Headlines → 10-2008 Archives

Market Misperceptions
By , The Independent, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Reporting that growth has slowed to 9% from 10.1% is hardly a “bombshell” and besides, 9% growth is still very strong.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: We don’t agree recent government actions are the same as those during the Great Depression. Though, taking no action at all can sometimes be good advice.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: We agree consumer spending is lower, but we think a government stimulus would only provide short-term effects—just like the stimulus earlier this year.
Sensible Stories
By , Barron’s, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: Investors queasy from market volatility should take comfort: “Churning is a sign of change and change is good following a long bear market.” The market may go down or up in the short term, but volatility isn’t necessarily negative—there are plenty of big up days in history too.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: Boom and bust cycles are common in financial history—they are not necessarily signs of ruin forever and always. Confidence does indeed play a role in these times, as do fundamentals.
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View:
You can’t hang your hat on one day of market movement.
Sensible Stories
By , International Herald Tribune, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: Japan’s central bank is making moves to improve liquidity and encourage lending.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: A lucid, insider argument against government intervention in the insurance industry
Sensible Stories
By , Café Hayek, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: When rules of the game are uncertain, investors and businesses hesitate to invest and take risks.
Sensible Stories
By , The Financial Times, 10/31/2008
MarketMinder's View: Bailing out the car manufacturers is throwing good money after bad.
Market Misperceptions
By , Forbes, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: A new term! We had stag-flation and now stag-deflation. We’ve gotten to the point price changes of any kind are bad for the economy. Ignore.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: We wouldn’t argue that a 0.3% decline in GDP is good but it’s not as disastrous as you might have expected reading the newspapers over the last month!
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg.com, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: James Blake or not, we agree with Buffett—now is a good time for long-term investors to hold stocks.
Sensible Stories
By , Money Magazine, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: This article says no—and we agree. For investors on the fence, this is a must read.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg.com, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: Christmas being canceled? More Armageddon-speak. Ignore.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg.com, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: The Fed is continuing to use monetary policy to ease liquidity pressures, but Wednesday’s fed funds rate cut was more of a formality. See today’s cover story, “Tooling Around,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg.com, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: Number of bartenders is now an economic indicator? We don’t think so.
Market Misperceptions
By , San Francisco Chronicle, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: A mild decline in third quarter GDP isn’t surprising—September saw the height of the financial crisis. What’s important looking ahead is how effective recent government and central banking moves prove.
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Ignore the alarmist headline, take a look at inflation in the 1970’s instead and realise it’s really not the most pressing concern right now.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: There’s a great deal of debate over Japan’s proposed plan, but here are some details to be aware of.
Market Misperceptions
By , Fortune, 10/30/2008
MarketMinder's View: Federal debt has never predicted stock market outcomes. Counter-intuitively, rising debt has portended higher stock returns.
Sensible Stories
By , MarketWatch, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View: Overcoming the “psychological experience of loss” is important for investors looking for long-term gains—selling out of stocks now will likely only lock in losses.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Monthly economic numbers are volatile and backward-looking and historically not predictive of stock market movements.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View: Though we may not agree with the assessment that short sellers are “simply bears” (some may simply be hedging) we do believe they are not to blame for the recent market turmoil and financial crisis.
Sensible Stories
By , MarketWatch, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View: Indeed, there is a lot of undue fear today. Many factors make the current bear market different from that of the Great Depression, and this article provides some details and contrasts.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View: We’re nowhere near the Great Depression but even that didn’t mark the end of the world for stock markets!
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Hold on, isn’t one of the reasons banks were in trouble because lending standards were too easy? We should be keeping government out of any industry as much as possible.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View: No, it’s alive and well! History shows bulls always follow bears, and holding a portfolio with low turnover is still the best course for long-term investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Tightening standards do not represent a “crisis” or catastrophe.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/29/2008
MarketMinder's View: Although the current market volatility is painful, in the long run stocks overwhelmingly outperform bonds.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg.com, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: Consumer confidence numbers are backward-looking and therefore not predictive of moves in the stock market.
Sensible Stories
By , BusinessWeek, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: Confusing financial policies fueled by heightened media coverage could be a contributor to the increase in investor fear and pessimism.
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View:
The tech boom should remind most of us that investor sentiment isn’t necessarily rational.
Market Misperceptions
By , Real Clear Markets, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: Placing a ban on short selling won’t solve everything. It’s a legitimate market tool that’s necessary in mitigating risk.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: A decrease in oil supply is neither a good or bad thing for stocks. Oil is historically volatile and not directly correlated with long-term movements in the stock market.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: A look into the market implications of the dollar’s recent strength.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: When considering human behavior it’s useful to recall Warren Buffett’s views on when to be greedy and when to be fearful.
Sensible Stories
By , TheStreet.com, 10/28/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we don’t necessarily agree with all the recommendations here, we do think Buffett has a point—now is the time to be greedy.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: Here’s the latest on another long financial trend seeing a recent reversal. See today’s cover story, “Carried Away,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Briefing.com, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we think the risk of recession is higher today than it was months ago, the more important question for investors today is whether that risk’s been priced in. We’d argue it has.
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: This isn’t a bad thing, but as ever, good or bad, we advise against making decisions based on short-term, questionably constructed statistics.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: Markets function more efficiently without government intervention.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: This article passionately favors capitalism over intervention—and we agree. But in our view, there’s little reason to believe today’s government actions mirror those during Great Depression—if anything, they’ve very consciously avoided many mistakes made back then.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSN Money, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: After admitting he’s no Buffett, the author goes on to tell us why Buffett’s got it wrong. We happen to agree with the Oracle of Omaha—see our 10/20/2008 cover story, “Gotta Love a Cheap Buffet,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Telegraph, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View:
This doesn’t make sense. Six months ago the “strength” of sterling was cutting off growth through lack of exports, now “weakness” is the enemy. People can always be negative about currency movements.
 
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: Markets make players pay for their mistakes and reward their successes—there’s no similar mechanism in politics, hence the endless merry-go-round of failed policies.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: Predicting very short-term market direction is a fool’s errand and always has been.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSNBC , 10/27/2008
MarketMinder's View: After what seemed like eons of daily reports worrying over every little gas price uptick, this is all we get on the way back down. Commodities are volatile and will always feature sharp moves.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall street Journal, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: As for as “alternative” of energy go, nuclear is by far the cleanest and most efficient.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: We’ll wait to see if this is a good or bad thing for the markets, but here are a few details on today’s action.
Sensible Stories
By , Motley Fool, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we don’t agree with all points made, the overall message is clear—outlandish headlines should be ignored. Armageddon is not nigh.
Market Misperceptions
By , BBC, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: Airlines always seem to be in financial trouble, in good times and bad. The plight of airlines is not (and never was) an economic indicator.
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes.com, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: This is easier said than done, but markets would surely prefer a more benign Washington to an overzealous one.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Regardless of your views of the estate tax, we feel money is better spent by individuals as opposed to central planners.
Sensible Stories
By , Fortune, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: We agree today’s selling tumult has more to do with sentiment than fundamentals.
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: Free trade for all!
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 10/24/2008
MarketMinder's View: Stocks, oil, and gold have never been significantly historically correlated. Thus, the fact they are moving together now is a harbinger of little or nothing.
Market Misperceptions
By , New York Times, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Government bailout maneuvers take time—weeks and months, not just days.  Judging the banks’ behavior today is premature.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we don’t subscribe to all the research and advice in this article, investors should definitely be aware of ways their brains can blindside them.
Sensible Stories
By , BBC, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: If there’s one thing the world can always have more of, it’s free trade.
Market Misperceptions
By , Telegraph, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: A literal call for Armageddon. Ignore.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we’re wary about forecasting a recession and feel index funds make poor investments for many, we do agree now is a great time to invest in the stock market for those who think long-term.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney.com, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Did you feel stimulated after the first one? Neither did we.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: When gas prices were high, doomsayers said it spelled gloom for the economy. Now gas prices are back off their highs, and doomsayers claim it’s due to weaker demand in a bad economy (with no statistics to substantiate claim of weaker demand). Keep in mind oil prices tend to be highly volatile.
Market Misperceptions
By , Slate, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Unemployment numbers are likely to rise in the period ahead, but are still relatively low compared to other periods. Either way, employment is a lagging indicator, not a forward-looking one.
Sensible Stories
By , The Economist, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: Credit markets may be slowly coming back to life, as evidenced by The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) gradual decline. Falling LIBOR indicates credit can flow easier.
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 10/23/2008
MarketMinder's View: “…the business outlook is hardly as cataclysmic as the overheated broadcast media have painted it.” Indeed.
Sensible Stories
By , San Francisco Chronicle, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we’re hesitant to give the “all clear” signal just yet, credit conditions indeed seem to be slowly thawing.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: Excellent article detailing why gold is not a good long-term investment unless you’re prepared to wait. And wait. And wait.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: One regulatory agency watching the market is likely better than several agencies with different oversight responsibilities.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View:
What’s efficient about more government control of industry?
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: Many are being scared out of the markets right now, and we agree the “fighters” taking the opportunity to buy into this market will be the ones who ultimately profit in the end.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: The continued plight of the US Auto industry is a great example of the consequences of government intervention.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: Putting a ceiling on earnings potential is effectively putting a ceiling on innovation and incentive for profit.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: We find this an interesting use of the word “stimulus”—as in “supposed to get something going.” But the fact is economic “stimulus” packages of the past do little but provide fleeting results.
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: Humankind has survived burst bubbles before, and this time will be no exception. If history teaches us correctly, this experience will yield innovations and “human economic betterment.”
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes, 10/22/2008
MarketMinder's View: Whether in a bubble or reverse bubble, avoiding the herd mentality is key to success for most investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , Washington Post, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: High volatility is indicative of nothing more than high emotions reminiscent of most bear market bottoms, not fundamentals.
Market Misperceptions
By , Real Clear Markets, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: Another stimulus bill won’t necessarily cure any or all economic problems.  The political motives behind this initiative are worth keeping an eye on.
Sensible Stories
By , Dow Jones, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: Some pertinent details about the Fed’s plan to buy commercial paper from mutual funds.
Sensible Stories
By , IslamOnline.net, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: “No small group of men, no matter how brilliant, can do well by substituting their judgment for the judgment inherent in the marketplace.” Words to live by.
Market Misperceptions
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s preposterous to blame the “current turmoil” on one generation’s spending habits.  Anyway, baby boomers will be around for decades longer and likely keeping--and dare we say growing--their assets in stocks.
Market Misperceptions
By , Slate, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: Starbucks’ drinks are now a leading economic indicator?  We don’t think so.
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we may not agree with everything is this article, history gives us reason believe there could be a “V” shaped recovery for stocks soon ahead.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View: Not only do they always work, they work best without intervention.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/21/2008
MarketMinder's View:
True enough, but that’s no reason to denounce good news.
Sensible Stories
By , Telegraph, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s encouraging the world is acting together to stave off further financial trouble, unlike largely conflicting country policies in past crises. Here’s a summary of recent global actions—some good, others not so much.
Sensible Stories
By , Chicago Tribune, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: Government led initiatives of this size are typically easier said than done—the bigger the bureaucracy, the more room for unintended consequences and bottlenecks.
Sensible Stories
By , San Francisco Chronicle, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: A simple comparison between then and now reveals, despite the panic, we’re nowhere near the Great Depression. See our 10/8/2008 cover story, “The Benefit of Bad Memories,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: This article mistakenly poses easing restrictions as negative. Forcing banks to price long-term assets as if they were short-term exacerbated this year’s credit trouble. Though helpful, this move may be late to the game. See our 10/2/2008 cover story, “From Liquid to Antiques Roadshow,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: We dispute there are any truly reliable “leading” economic indicators, and we’re especially skeptical of said indicators over short periods. But that the result outstripped expectations illustrates many folks are overly negative currently.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: Government and regulators might find it more instructive to look in the mirror rather than at the hedge funds when trying to apportion blame.
Sensible Stories
By , Calculated Risk, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: We’re not out of the woods yet, but we’ve recently seen some thawing in credit markets.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View:
This is probably more political than it is helpful. If politicians were truly interested in sustained economic stimulus, they’d cut out the middle man (themselves) and just cut taxes.
Sensible Stories
By , International Herald Tribune, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: Now is not the time for belt-tightening—just one of many poor policy prescriptions leading up to depression in the 1930s.
Sensible Stories
By , Barron’s, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: Though we disagree energy prices played any large role in slowing the economy, we do agree things are better than most are willing to admit.
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View:
It’s not as if growth has fallen off a cliff here! 9% GDP growth is still very robust.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/20/2008
MarketMinder's View: Volatile commodity prices cause many folks to worry too much about both deflation and inflation—as shown by this year’s quick rise and fall of food and energy prices.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney.com, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View:
If higher prices were bad only months ago, shouldn’t lower prices be a good thing now? Some just can’t see good news for what it is—good!
Sensible Stories
By , The New Yorker, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Fear and uncertainty, and not necessarily fundamentals, are making lenders hesitant to lend.
Market Misperceptions
By , Guardian, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Protectionist government policies will likely hurt long-term economic prospects and limit growth.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Near-frozen credit markets are showing signs of thawing. See our current cover story, “Easing Goes It,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Breaking Views, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: A few monthly indicators show a slowdown in parts of the economy—whether that translates to a recession remains to be seen. There are hardly any foregone conclusions right now. 
Market Misperceptions
By , Forbes, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Valuations may be able to tell you if stocks are relatively cheap or expensive, but valuations alone cannot predict stocks’ performances in the short or long run.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Economists have been predicting a US recession for the past year and a half. Even if the US were to enter a mild recession, note the economy has always managed to bounce back better than ever from past ones—and in all likelihood, the worst of it has already been priced into stocks.
Sensible Stories
By , Portfolio.com, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Technology continues to make sharing market information easier and faster—and could drive interesting developments for a system powered by information.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Guardian, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Why does the economy need a “plan”? See John Stossel’s piece under our Sensible Stories today for more.
Sensible Stories
By , National Review Online, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: One danger of “temporary” government interventions in free markets? They become permanent.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: Is Warren Buffet crazy for buying stocks today? Nope, and here’s why.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall street Journal, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: “The sad thing is that there is no need to strong-arm large banks; indeed, this tactic adds risk to the financial stabilization effort.” And it is a risk that the market doesn’t need.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: This is today’s required reading—the economy as an ice skating rink.
Market Misperceptions
By , Chicago Tribune, 10/17/2008
MarketMinder's View: The value meal as an economic indicator? We don’t think so.
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Post, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we disagree with the author’s notion that tax deductions are bad, we do agree government interference generally isn’t a good thing for markets long-term.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Los Angeles Times, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: Although the current financial crisis isn’t good for the economy, many statistics and studies cited in this article are, at best, coincident indicators.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: A good explanation of what derivatives are and how they’re calculated. Please see our 10/13/08 cover story, “Ghosts of Lehman’s Debt,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: A realistic view of US economic and financial prospects for the future.
Sensible Stories
By , City Journal, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: “The Europeans overlook the fundamentals of any growing economy: it is cyclical, growth requires innovation, and there can be no innovation without trials and errors.” In short, the current financial crisis may be viewed as a learning opportunity to avoid future mistakes. Capitalism is indeed brutal when it cleans house, but that’s only evidence it’s working.
Market Misperceptions
By , Seeking Alpha, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: Doom and gloom abound in this article. Rather than try to exactly time the bottom (nearly impossible), this is a good time to buy stocks at cheap prices in anticipation of the longer-term, brighter future.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s difficult to predict exactly what the consequences of government intervention other than to say if we use history as a guide, there definitely will be some.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: If it’s not clear already, note how politicized the “rescues” have become. That’s a bad thing.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: So, let’s get this straight—knowing the last “bailout” had only fleeting positive effects, the political choice is to do it again!?
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Fear of a recession is nothing new and as such is not what moved the markets yesterday.
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 10/16/2008
MarketMinder's View: We’ve always said in times of market uncertainty (like now) certain innate features of your mental wiring can be your worst enemy. Here’s a scientific look at how the brain reacts to unpredictable occurrences like market volatility.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View:
It’s interesting to note the comparisons to the Great Depression when the US has experienced only quarter of contraction---and that was the 4th quarter of 2007! The US hasn’t even experienced a recession, much less a Depression.
 
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: Though this will concern many, now is not the time for belt tightening—contracting fiscal and monetary policy was a major error leading up to the Great Depression.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: We agree these “drastic steps might have been avoided had the Treasury and FDIC acted sooner.” See today’s cover story, “Follow the Leader,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Financial Times, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s instructive to recall we’ve had many financial crises in the past and have always emerged from them.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: The extreme volatility of late demonstrates a short-term departure from fundamentals—just like you’d see in a bubble. But long-term, stocks should still beat all
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: High (remember the evil speculators?) or low (impending economic doom), oil prices just can’t win. But oil’s price trends aren’t predictive of much but oil’s natural volatility.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: The risk of recession is certainly elevated as long as financial markets remain locked up. But a handful of monthly indicators don’t make a convincing case.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s far too soon to say “all clear,” but it’s worth noting Libor has lately eased a bit and not headed the other direction.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Politics, 10/15/2008
MarketMinder's View: We need only go as far back as Sarbanes-Oxley to dispel the myth that regulation is always the answer.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: More federal action to ensure the stability of America’s banking system. Here’s a good overview of the plan.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: The financial services turmoil won’t precipitate the end of the America as we know it.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: Don’t get us wrong—there were some dumb moves made as the crisis unfolded, but scapegoating accomplishes little save new restrictions on the already law-abiding and competent.
Market Misperceptions
By , San Francisco Chronicle, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: We’d advise strong caution in heeding the prognostications of surveys—too often they feature huge assumptions and broad estimates.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: Perception of reality, not reality, often dominates in times of mania and panic. For more, see our 10/9/2008 column, “Simple Choices.”
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney.com , 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s to be expected the Financials-heavy New York City would suffer, but one city’s problems don’t spell doom for the whole economy.
Sensible Stories
By , SmartMoney, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we don’t agree with every point made, the fact is stocks are cheap by almost any possible valuation metric.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View: Fed Chairman Bernanke discusses the tools set in place to protect the US economy. Like the plan or not, it’s worth knowing his views.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Financial Times, 10/14/2008
MarketMinder's View:
It’s funny how as soon as the market has a good day we start looking for the next disaster that will bring us to our knees.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: Financial crises and government intervention does not mean capitalism is dead.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: It just goes to show, you never know—late last week, many were worried Morgan Stanley would go under over the weekend. They’re not out of the woods yet, but fresh capital should help—as will a near 90% run up in its stock price on Monday.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: No equation yet invented can account for human behavior. And we might add that technical gauges, no matter how brilliant, still rely on a very limited set of historical data.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNBC, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: Maybe…maybe not! Many will weigh in on the topic over the next days. We could be there already or there may be some more downside from here. But it matters less when the exact bottom comes, and more that investors are in stocks when it arrives—the bull bounce will be big and fast when it does happen. 
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View:
There is no comparison between the threats to the global economy in 1933 and in 2008. 
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: Today’s most visible news items? Sure. Driving today’s rally? Impossible to tell. Recent market activity underscores that short-term market movement in tumultuous times is mostly inscrutable.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: Here’s a rundown of recent and pending coordinated global action to stem the crisis.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: We don’t agree with every point in this article, but the broader message is right on: Now is exactly the wrong time to shun stocks.
Sensible Stories
By , Calafia Beach Pundit, 10/13/2008
MarketMinder's View: This is a great summary of the widely unheralded yet vital development that likely drove Friday’s big intraday stock market recovery.
Sensible Stories
By , Reason Magazine, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: Some government interventions of late have been good, and others bad—it will take time for all consequences to shake out. But we do agree usually the least invasive methods are the best.
Sensible Stories
By , USA Today, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: In our view, this is a good resolution to the dispute since Wells Fargo’s offer doesn’t ask for government aid or intervention. It’s an unappreciated bullish factor that banks are fighting over what most consider valueless assets.
Sensible Stories
By , The Financial Times, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: Shutting down markets cannot possibly improve investor confidence.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: Short answer: No. Many factors contributed to the current woes Europe is experiencing—placing the blame entirely on America is called scapegoating.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: A level-headed and contrary view about a mostly healthy economy in the midst of a financial crisis.
Market Misperceptions
By , International Herald Tribune, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Talk of a coordinated bailout or whether or not this proposal does get passed, global efforts to aid in a financial crisis such as this tend to backfire.  It’ll be quite a feat to get all G-8 nations to agree on an appropriate plan and unlikely to happen. 
Market Misperceptions
By , New York Times, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: We don’t see how the government’s direct ownership of banks can be perceived as a positive thing for the market.
Market Misperceptions
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: We’ve seen claims we are in a recession many times before.  Whether or not GDP ends up negative in the coming quarters has yet to be determined, but the fact is it hasn’t done so yet—globally or in the US.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View:
A stimulus package, just like the last one, will not have change anything.
Sensible Stories
By , USA Today, 10/10/2008
MarketMinder's View: We agree fear is fueling the panic—the underlying values of most assets have been unduly punished.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View: Unless you really think the markets are destined for armageddon, now is not the time for long term investors to pull out of equities.
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View:
We don’t place much faith in IMF forecasts, especially when they describe a global recession as positive growth of 2.5%!
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View: A good breakdown of the differences between the events now and those leading to the Great Depression.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View: In the absence of the ban on short selling, the market will be freer to perform based on the laws of supply and demand and not arbitrary rules.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View: While we may not know the results of any action or inaction just yet, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on discussions nevertheless.
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Post, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View: “This financial chaos has ruined our sleep but left our physical and human capital unscathed. We have the same productive capacity today we had a year ago. And if our capital hasn't changed, we've suffered no overall capital loss.” It isn’t clear yet whether Uncle Sam is doing more harm than good, but we agree with anything negating thoughts of a depression.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/09/2008
MarketMinder's View: We agree: Today’s action is reminiscent of a true panic than an appraisal of reality. Today’s economic landscape isn’t rosy, but it’s far from Armageddon.
Sensible Stories
By , The Telegraph, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: A convincing argument in favor of stocks right now.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: When shouldn’t you “expect volatility for oil prices?” Never. Commodities are by definition volatile and almost completely unpredictable in the near term.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: People are acting under the notion of “It’s Different This Time”---the four most dangerous words of investing.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s always instructive to look back at what might have been similar problems in the past. Japanese style deflation was not one of them.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: Over the last several weeks, fear has pushed through quick, dramatic policy decisions with little debate—many of which we may later see as having severely worsened the crisis.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Telegraph, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Remember 1929 – Government intervention prolonged, not solved, the issue.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: Maybe this is a good sign, maybe not. Investors shouldn’t lend much credence to monthly indicators no matter their direction.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: Coordinated global monetary policy is one major capital markets improvement since the 1930s. See today’s cover story, “The Benefit of Bad Memories,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , RealClearMarkets, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: We also worry about a misguided, mostly myth-based legislative backlash—in response to the unintended fallout of the last misguided, mostly myth-based legislative backlash.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSNBC, 10/08/2008
MarketMinder's View: Believing government is a better asset manager than private sector professionals is preposterous—we believe such action at best muddles things, at worst is reckless.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/07/2008
MarketMinder's View: Putting both the Great Depression and the potential demise of capitalism in perspective.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/07/2008
MarketMinder's View: The Fed is continuing to take unprecedented and aggressive steps to provide liquidity.
Sensible Stories
By , Fund Strategy, 10/07/2008
MarketMinder's View: Global growth may or may not slow in the coming months, but it’ll likely avoid a Depression-like contraction.
Sensible Stories
By , Yahoo Finance, 10/07/2008
MarketMinder's View: We think using less-invasive tactics (like lowering rates among others) may be more effective policy prescription than large-scale government intervention.
Market Misperceptions
By , Los Angeles Times, 10/07/2008
MarketMinder's View: Comparisons to the Great Depression abound—but today’s leaders have increased awareness and more targeted policy prescriptions. We don’t currently see depression as likely.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/07/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Recession is not yet a foregone conclusion. Though more logistically challenged, European leaders are taking active, concerted steps to shore up financial systems. See yesterday’s (10/7/2008) cover story, “An Uncertain Panic,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: “I would say shares are as cheap as I've seen them in my lifetime of managing money…” Outstanding.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: We applaud the Fed using its traditional powers to target panicked lenders and wonder why they weren’t exercised more vigorously earlier.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: Some banks will likely fail. It’s the market’s way of cleaning house. But the ultimate fallout remains unclear, and we think it’s far too early to make such matter-of-fact statements.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney.com, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: It makes perfect sense that a time of uncertainty would breed such fears, but public opinion polls aren’t great forecasting tools. We have yet to see negative growth and that we might soon be in recession is very much debatable. In any case, “we're a long, long way from a depression."
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: The US federal government’s recent erratic behavior has likely made a bad situation much worse.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: With most of the media so focused on the US, it’s easy to forget the global picture.
Sensible Stories
By , The Telegraph, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: “Events need to be put in context and investors need a historical perspective.” – Absolutely.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: When folks are most fearful, markets tend to hit bottom. Currently, the risk of missing a big bull bounce back outweighs the risk of some more downside from here.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View: The financial landscape continues to experience massive changes under inconsistent government intervention. Here’s a good summary of the Wells Fargo/Citigroup dispute over troubled Wachovia.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Telegraph, 10/06/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Ok, we know we’re experiencing challenging times but this sounds like the end of the world! We’ve pulled through far greater turmoil than we’re experiencing now.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Calling this the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression is simply wrong. You only need look at global GDP figures to realize that.
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: “But we do know that the free market has a long-run track record of creating prosperity—even with the occasional crash.” Free markets are usually best served left to themselves, without unnecessary government intervention.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: A lagging indicator—especially that of employment—shouldn’t be extrapolated to mean the economy is headed for “the worst recession in at least a quarter century.”
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: It’s important to note banks have begun fighting over purchasing these assets—this is less a rescue than a bidding war.
Sensible Stories
By , Times Online, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: Whatever we’re talking about we have an innate ability to exaggerate the truth!
Sensible Stories
By , Wall Street Journal, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: Here are a few details on today’s bailout bill passage.
Sensible Stories
By , Briefing.com , 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: “Any attempt to draw comparisons between the current economic environment and the Great Depression is utter nonsense.”
Market Misperceptions
By , CNNMoney.com, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: A prediction of retail sales (yet another lagging indicator) with little evidence to support its claim. Ignore.  Retailers are lowering prices.  Since when is this a bad thing? (Or, put differently—when have retailers ever NOT competed aggressively during the holiday season for business?)
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/03/2008
MarketMinder's View: Why are we not surprised?
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: “The government needs the power to use public capital to defend and stabilize the financial system. In that sense, we are really bailing out ourselves.” As we’ve said before, government intervention is not necessarily a positive thing. Free markets should be the deciding body for everything. 
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: Ignore. Weekly numbers—particularly a lagging indicator like employment —should never be considered leading market indicators. 
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: A good, balanced perspective: Credit is tighter today, but remains widely available to qualified borrowers across most strata.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: “The lessons of past financial inflection points are that we must let the markets reallocate capital from less efficient to more efficient uses.” The fact is, down times are part and parcel to the creative destruction cycle—a very good and worthy thing in the long run.
Market Misperceptions
By , Times Online, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View:
You might expect at least some comment on Global GDP Growth here, but since that’s still running between 3-4% it wouldn’t really back up the story would it?
Market Misperceptions
By , Forbes, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: It may look and feel like Armageddon today, but the fact is most parts of the financial system—and the broader economy—are functioning and will continue to do so.
Sensible Stories
By , Briefing, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: “These may be unprecedented times, but so was every other major crisis that precipitated some scary-looking selling activity. In each of those instances, the stock market recovered and new wealth was created.” We couldn’t agree more.
Sensible Stories
By , YahooFinance, 10/02/2008
MarketMinder's View: We said this bill was likely to become hyper-politicized. See our commentary “Politicizing the Rescue Plan” (9/29/08), for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: Trying to separate pain from business and economics can prevent evolution of useful responses.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: The bailout bill’s future may hinge on Senate approval. Here is a good place for up-to-date details.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: This article contains a lot of speculation but few facts. Consumer sentiment typically lags the real economy (or is at best coincident) and doesn’t always correlate with consumer spending. Note that consumer spending has been positive most of this year while sentiment has simultaneously tanked.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: “The most amazing paradox of 2008 is the continued growth of the U.S. economy and the sorry state of the U.S. financial markets.” Indeed.
Sensible Stories
By , Forbes.com, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: “Owning a mortgage-backed security in this environment is like owning a pointy hat and a black cat in colonial Massachusetts.” No one wins when financial decisions become politicized.
Sensible Stories
By , New York Post, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: Government intervention in free markets can prolong and exacerbate uncertainties, and delay failures of nonviable companies.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: Large, strategic M&A deals continue, signaling that despite some credit constraints, there are still firms with ample capital and confident outlooks.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: Computational modeling in markets is an interesting development and may be able to highlight broad themes. But simulation of human behavior—not matter how “lifelike”—cannot account for actual human responses or extraneous events. Policies based on computational modeling will surely run into these problems.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: Well there’s a plan that doesn’t cost $700bn.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: Governments around the world continue to intervene in financial institutions—and it’s important to stay informed on these events. See today’s cover story, “Study Abroad,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View: We fail to see how this is less cumbersome or hazardous than the bailout bill as it stands—in fact, simply “paying off” delinquent loans would probably cause greater long-term dislocations in housing and financial markets than before.
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 10/01/2008
MarketMinder's View:
Congress failing to agree the ‘bailout’ does not push us any closer to Great Depression II.