Home → Fisher Investments MarketMinder Headlines → 06-2009 Archives

Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Don’t put too much stock in monthly consumer confidence numbers—they’re backward-looking. The stock market is the ultimate leading economic indicator.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Now states will get to take shots at banks for not lending enough?
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Because the market is naturally volatile, the VIX tells us nothing new. It shouldn’t be taken for a reliable indicator. 
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: This rally is sustainable and has the legs to last.
Market Misperceptions
By , Kiplinger, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Even a bumpy economic recovery is vastly better than the dire forecasts accompanying last year’s financial panic.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: “But as surely as sunrise follows night, bull markets follow bear markets.” Amen.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: Welcome signs of improvement in the housing market.
Sensible Stories
By , The New Republic, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View: This plan is losing steam, but that’s not a bad thing. For more, see today’s cover story, “The Program That Wasn’t There.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Seeking Alpha, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Bank earnings reports are unlikely to wreak havoc on global markets. Ignore.
Market Misperceptions
By , Seeking Alpha, 06/30/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We don’t think so—the greenback is alive and well. See our 06/03/2009 cover story, “Reserved Panda-monium,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , USA Today, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: The operative word being “eventual.” Inflation is a risk down the road—but not until producers have pricing power again. And how the central bank responds to that later risk will depend on those later conditions.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Speculators are frequently demonized, but in truth, they serve a useful purpose in price discovery. Trying to regulate speculators’ actions will likely just result in unintended consequences. See our 06/19/2009 cover story, “Voting and Weighing,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Smart Money, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Yes, he was an incredibly talented artist. But we highly doubt returns on “King of Pop” memorabilia will beat stocks in the long term.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Well, it’s hard to say for certain—but this article does point out many of today’s little-noticed economic positives.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Learn a lesson from the Germans—being a net exporter isn’t preferable. The US model of being a net importer is far superior.
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Instead of asking whether your esthetician is busy, look to the stock market for a clue: Historically, stocks have led economic recoveries. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: More hard evidence China isn’t bailing on the dollar any time soon. See our 06/03/2009 cover story, “Reserved Panda-monium,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New Republic, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View:
There are already calls for another stimulus before the prior one’s even had a chance to work! Stimulus takes time to make its way through the system. See our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Of course banks don’t want to sell assets at fire-sale prices. They know those assets will likely be worth much more if held to maturity, as they always intended to do. See our 03/24/2009 cover story, “Public-Private Teamwork,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSN Money, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Trying to determine who’s “more right” at any given time—stock markets or credit markets—is akin to reading tea leaves. Such analysis is faulty and backward-looking.
Market Misperceptions
By , NPR, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: Sure, it could, but inflation won’t be a concern until producers have pricing power again—which is likely a ways off. It does no good to make guesses at how to deal with conditions that don’t exist yet.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: Should this pass, we’re encouraged that Australia, after coming to their senses, overturned their own cap-and-trade bill weeks after having passed it.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: China banks are seeing an ease in lending—this is bullish!
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: A solid explanation about some of the unintended adverse effects caused by the impending cap-and-tax bill.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg , 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Another push away from the greenback? The dollar’s strength and global position needn’t worry investors. For more, see our 06/03/2009 cover story, “Reserved Panda-monium.”
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: “If history is any guide, such pervasive fear isn't bad — stocks have no problem climbing a wall of worry.” We completely agree—stocks are cheap and investors should take advantage of this opportunity.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 06/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: Folks fear budget deficits, but historically, stocks have fared very well following budget deficit high points.
Sensible Stories
By , SmartMoney, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View: Sayings like “sell in May and go away” might rhyme, but they’re bad investing advice.
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View: “If history is any guide, such pervasive fear isn’t bad—stocks have no problem climbing a wall of worry.” Well said.
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View: Most banks have had little trouble raising the funds required after the stress tests.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Folks have always moved for jobs—in good and bad times. This is nothing new—people go where the money is.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSN Money, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Inflation fears are overblown—if inflation does happen, it won’t do so until well into the future. Inflation can’t take root in a slacking economy, elevated unemployment, and low capacity utilization.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Mayors are yet another scapegoat—blamed for everything from potholes to high unemployment. Some may deserve the blame, but others may just be victims of mob mentality. Expect this to continue until the economy recovers.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View: Angry mobs are de rigueur in difficult times—people always look for someone to blame. But going after Wall Street with flaming torches and pitchforks isn’t going to fix things when many other factors contributed to the financial mess.
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Historically, stocks have bottomed and recovered well before jobs numbers. Expect unemployment to continue rising well after the stock market starts moving higher.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/25/2009
MarketMinder's View: Cap-and-trade is effectively a hefty tax that will likely hurt the economy—something we can’t afford right now. See our 03/26/2009 cover story, “Climate Control,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: Price caps on anything can lead to distortions. These employees won’t necessarily be paid more (or less), just paid differently.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Bankruptcy rates rise during recessions, just a fact of life. Creative destruction is a vital component of capitalism.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: While protectionist trends can be damaging to all parties involved, it’s unlikely these policies will cause much more than angry rhetoric—typical during recessionary periods. For more, see today’s cover story, “Buy Apple Pie.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Washington Post, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: Fears over the future of the dollar seem baseless—foreign entities continue to purchase US dollar-denominated assets (China holds close to $2 trillion). Plus, weak or strong, the dollar’s relative strength doesn’t dictate stock market direction.
Market Misperceptions
By , Wired, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Who’s to say where the best and brightest should be working? Human capital inevitably flows toward where it can get the best perceived ROI.
Sensible Stories
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: This bill rider poses a risk to businesses of all sizes across America and threatens to raise energy costs for individual consumers.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: Economic forecasts are notoriously imperfect, but it’s true there are signs of improvement.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Risk of deflation seems past, given the scope of global monetary and fiscal stimulus. And inflation won’t be a real risk until we surpass a high level of capacity utilization. Until then, producers don’t have pricing power and overall prices can’t rise.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: An important takeaway: The US is responding to its financial crisis much faster and more aggressively than Japan did.
Sensible Stories
By , The Associated Press, 06/24/2009
MarketMinder's View: Central banks worldwide continue efforts to get markets moving with additional cash infusions and support for troubled financial institutions.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View:
If the US is no longer deemed AAA, who are we no longer AAA compared to? We’re confident the US isn’t at risk of defaulting, now or in the future.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: “History suggests that over the long run it will pay to be bullish while others are stuck in a bear market state of mind.” Amen.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Pretty much the only thing this gets right is that “the federal government does a lot of stupid things.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Independent, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Maybe the economy will double dip or maybe growth is merely sluggish. Either way, stocks don’t require a steep economic recovery to boom. See our 06/23/2009 cover story, “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It’s perfectly normal for stocks to not travel a straight line upward. Read our 05/14/2009 cover story, “The Crooked Road to Recovery,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , BusinessWeek, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: Very true. Inflation won’t be a risk until producers have pricing power again—after we’ve surpassed a high level of capacity utilization.
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: Likely true. But whether the bottom is past, or sometime in the near future, the time to be bullish is now. Early bull returns are steep and fast.
Sensible Stories
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 06/23/2009
MarketMinder's View: Keep in mind, a recovery in employment will lag market and economic recovery. But “free trade is a proven job creator.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again. Jobs numbers are a lagging economic indicator—history shows unemployment numbers rise well after a market and economic recovery is underway. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , National Post, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
There is definitely a role for the government and regulation in capitalism, but that role isn’t to inhibit free markets.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Veering from a long-term strategy near the bottom of a bear market is exactly the wrong path to achieving financial goals.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: Inflation isn’t the immediate concern many fear. Getting the global economy back on track is rightly central banks’ current focus. See our 04/15/2009 cover story, “A Stimulative Spark,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: We are now seeing a few negative consequences of the “Buy America” provisions from the US stimulus package. In an increasingly global world, such trade barriers will only hurt, not help, economic and market recovery.
Sensible Stories
By , SmartMoney, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: “In short, the economy is trying to right itself but has a few more months to travel before real growth arrives.” Stimulus takes time to work, but the stock market will discount an economic recovery before it happens. For more, see our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The stock market doesn’t move in a straight line. Market pullbacks are normal after such a rapid rise. See our 06/16/2009 cover story, “Trial by Volatility,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 06/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The IMF just raised its forecast for global economic growth. Which organization is correct? If past faulty forecasts are any indication, neither will be right on the mark. Expect the stock market to shrug off imprecise forecasts and rise in expectation of better economic times ahead.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: Pushing to cap executive compensation won’t fix what ailed Financials. It will just push talent to other fields with no compensation caps. Long term, that would be worse for Financials. This is Economics 101.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal , 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: California’s current tax structure is death by a thousand cuts. A flat tax, so long as it lowers the tax liability on productive people to entice them to stay, will go a long way towards fixing what ails the Golden State.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: This is how capitalism functions. Price caps—even on salaries—create dangerous market distortions. Banks have to pay to retain top talent and help foster a globally competitive financial industry.
Market Misperceptions
By , Business Week , 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: Buybacks may have stalled, but as long as borrowing costs remain low, it’s likely firms will return to buying back shares to boost their earnings per share. Plus, it reduces share supply—an overall positive for broader markets.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The tragic losers of ‘Buy America’ are free trade agreements and potential job growth in the American economy.” Exactly. Bottom line—protectionism hurts those it aims to help.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: No, this isn’t a review for the latest James Bond film. As amazing as this story is, it rather shoots down fears the dollar is becoming irrelevant—when was the last time we saw €134 billion worth of bonds being counterfeited?
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View:
This is silly. Other nations don’t want us telling them what to do, any more than we want them telling us what to do.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: As we’ve said in the past, expect unemployment to keep rising. It typically lags market recovery. Falling unemployment isn’t required for a new bull market to begin.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: More participation in China’s “free” market, such as it is, is definitely a positive for the country.
Market Misperceptions
By , Yahoo! Finance, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
There are more differences than similarities between now and the 1930s. See our cover stories, “One War at a Time” (06/05/2009), “Fool’s Errand” (04/02/2009), and “Patience With Punches” (01/14/2009), for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , SmartMoney, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
These are all lagging indicators. Want to know whether an economic rebound is in the making? Then look to the stock market. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , International Business Times, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Debt ratings tend to be more reactive than predictive—note these downgrades came long after the financial ills of 2008. That’s near useless for stock investors.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: More transparency? A good thing. See today’s cover story, “Regulator Rubik’s Cube,” for more on planned financial regulations.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: History shows too much government involvement typically causes more problems than it solves.
Market Misperceptions
By , Yahoo Finance, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Theories about insider trading have never been reliable forward-looking stock market indicators.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Inflation is not an issue...it’s difficult to see how inflation can pick up for the balance of the year.” It’s too soon to worry about inflation—an issue that could be months, if not years, away.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSN Money, 06/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
When the recession “really” ends is of little relevance to stock investors—stocks discount the future, so a recovery will be priced in long before the data say so.
Sensible Stories
By , The Australian, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: While the economic situation of late has been admittedly better in Australia than in many other countries, it never hurts to remember: “Recessions happen.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Barron’s, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Assuming risk aversion is back based on a couple days of market returns? While a dip in the market is possible, if not expected after such a long positive run, that doesn’t mean “fear is back.” For more, see our 06/16/2009 cover story, “Trial by Volatility.”
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: While higher inflation remains a risk down the road, it doesn’t appear to be rearing its head any time soon.
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Buying gold bars from vending machines? If this really makes you feel safer about your investments, then perhaps a trip to Germany is in order.
Sensible Stories
By , BusinessWeek, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: A direct explanation of S&P’s position on the US government debt rating.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: The nation’s major banks continue to line up to pay their way out of TARP. The institutions’ increasing financial independence from the government is a positive sign.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: Not much new in the report on a regulatory overhaul—but the announced plans are light in details. Our regulatory system could benefit from streamlining, though even the perfect plan won’t be implemented smoothly.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Mortgage rates, though rising somewhat recently, remain historically low.
Market Misperceptions
By , Smart Money, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Waiting until you feel “secure” economically to get back in the stock market? It may be a while. You risk missing out on significant returns, as economic recovery historically lags that of the stock market. Clarity in markets is always expensive.
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 06/17/2009
MarketMinder's View: History shows we can’t rely on those industries that led into the bear market (housing and financials) to lead us out.
Sensible Stories
By , Yahoo Finance, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: There’s no way we can ever regulate away the natural cycles of capitalism nor should we ultimately want to.
Market Misperceptions
By , Credit Writedowns, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Today is almost nothing like the Great Depression. For more, see our 05/11/2009 cover story, “A Medium Rare Market.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Post, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: Capitalism returns? It never went away!
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: The global economy is taking steps in the right direction as the wall of stimulus continues.
Market Misperceptions
By , International Business Times, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
This is extremely over-bearish and highly unlikely. Ignore. For more, see our 06/01/2009 cover story, “The Name Is Bond.”
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’ve said it often—dollar moves don’t matter much for global investors nor do they predict future moves in asset prices like stocks.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
A pullback is expected after this kind of run in the market, not something to be feared as the end of the recovery. Such declarations run aplenty in times like today. For more, see today’s cover story, “Trial by Volatility.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Post, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The Obama administration said yesterday that it will seek to overhaul the business of selling investments made from mortgage loans.” Keep your eye on this as details unfold later this week.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 06/16/2009
MarketMinder's View:
More gloom and doom forecasts from Dr. Doom himself.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: A reminder that central banks globally can react quickly to changing dynamics to help mitigate inflation when the time comes.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’ve said it before: Fears nations will start dumping their dollar-denominated assets are overblown. See our 06/03/2009 cover story, “Reserved Panda-monium,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , SmartMoney, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Day-to-day moves can give most investors motion sickness. Stocks may be falling today, but could be rising just as sharply tomorrow. Though difficult, long-term investors should remain invested and ignore daily market gyrations.
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: “History has shown that when the bear is roaring loudest, or even just after it has quieted down a bit, is the time to invest.” Waiting until you’re “sure” it’s a bull market can mean missing some big early bull returns.
Market Misperceptions
By , Daily Finance, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: Could the economy double dip? Sure—it might. But stocks don’t need a sharp economic recovery to have big returns. See our 05/18/2009 cover story, “Separating Shoots From Stocks,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , BusinessWeek, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: There’s no reason to fear today’s slightly elevated Treasury yields. Historically, Treasury yields usually rise ahead of economic recoveries. See our 06/12/2009 cover story, “A Fire Sale Four,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/15/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Waiting for unemployment to improve before turning bullish could prove costly. Historically, stocks bottom and begin rising before the economy, and both typically improve before unemployment. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: Oil prices and gold—two things to ignore when investing in the stock market. Neither are reliable indicators.
Market Misperceptions
By , Kiplinger, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: Sure, these may be positive signs for consumers, but we’d hardly call crowded movie theaters an economic indicator.  The stock market is the leading economic indicator.
Sensible Stories
By , Smart Money, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The whole notion of a czar dictating how free individuals can interact and trade is so unmistakably contrary to the American principles of liberty and individual rights.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Real Clear Markets, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: Now we’re creating a depression index? We think it’s safe to say this is a bit outlandish.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: “None of this will encourage the entrepreneurial spirits we need for a buoyant economic recovery.” Amen.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: As we’ve said before, the Dow isn’t a good indicator of US stocks or the economy. For more, see our 06/02/2009 cover story, “Don’t Bow to Dow.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Vanity Fair, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Many countries may conclude not simply that unfettered capitalism, American-style, has failed but that the very concept of a market economy has failed, and is indeed unworkable under any circumstances.” Capitalism is far from dead, but such alarmist rhetoric commonly surfaces in times like these.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: The wall of global stimulus continues to have a positive effect—a bullish sign for the global economy.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: A healthy appetite for US Treasuries remains. See today’s cover story, “A Fire Sale Four,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , NPR, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Most worry this will adversely affect consumption, the largest component of GDP, but it’s been proven time and time again household wealth doesn’t drive consumption.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Independent, 06/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: Fears of a diminishing greenback are unfounded—the likelihood of the renminbi replacing the dollar is slim to none in the foreseeable future.
Market Misperceptions
By , Kiplinger, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
All lagging indicators. Historically, the stock market has bottomed and begun recovering before the economy—and there’s no reason to expect this time to be any different. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: More proof Chapter 11 bankruptcy isn’t an automatic death knell for struggling firms.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New Republic, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Are we seeing a Google indicator in the making? This likely is a coincident indicator and unproven to boot. Ignore.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’re not quite sure if this is satirical. In case it’s not, it’s silly to assume banks are paying back TARP funds so they can throw wild parties. Getting out from under the government’s thumb is the right move for shareholders, customers, and employees.
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: “But history has shown that when investors begin to panic and flee from stocks, it’s a pretty good time to be thinking about getting into equities.” Well said—bull markets climb a wall of worry.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: Although the market is up a good amount since the bottom, stocks are still relatively cheap, and long-term investors should still see this as a prime buying opportunity.
Market Misperceptions
By , BloggingStocks, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We have a better idea: How about letting people keep their own wages and funding their own retirement funds? The “social security liability” is one that goes away with a simple vote from Congress.
Market Misperceptions
By , International Business Times, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Nothing to worry about here. Other countries like China and Japan are still buying US Treasuries instead of acting on unfounded fears the US might default on its debt. See our 06/03/2009 cover story, “Reserved Panda-monium,” for more. 
Sensible Stories
By , The Motley Fool, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: The longer this rally continues, the more likely we’re in the middle of a new bull market, not a bear market rally. See our 06/09/2009 cover story, “Fear of Heights,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Washington Post, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
And what purpose will this serve other than driving talent from firms that really need it? And possibly pushing some public firms to go private?
Sensible Stories
By , Associated Press, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: It’s premature to be looking for the end of the recession, but there are certainly signs of improvement. And remember, the market leads the economy, not the other way around.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
First, mortgage rates are still historically low, which is a positive for both home buyers and sellers. Second, rising mortgage rates don’t historically predict stock market movements.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: A mixed bag for Citi. It’s good they can raise capital. But it’s largely accounting trickery since they’re converting preferreds the government held anyway, and the conversion further dilutes swampy shareholder value. Either way, it’s evidence Citi isn’t the systemic risk once feared.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
So, as banks are proving their strength by paying back TARP, we should be concerned we’re losing a sense of urgency toward improving the economy? But aren’t banks capable of paying back TARP a positive economic development? This argument just doesn’t add up. Ignore.
Market Misperceptions
By , Motley Fool, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
There are a lot of baseless myths about gold—but these aren’t them. Gold is, first and foremost, a commodity and not money in the sense we understand it today. And, as currency, gold is indeed a barbarous relic. Our fiat money system makes vastly more sense than pegging currency value to a commodity whose supply is finite and has other industrial uses.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: “China, the world's largest holder of official foreign exchange reserves, has no intention of abandoning the dollar.” There you have it—more evidence China’s not dumping the greenback any time soon. For more, see our 06/03/2009 cover story, “Reserved Panda-monium.”
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: We wouldn’t agree with everything here, but it’s true rising long-term rates can be a good sign. Keep in mind, a lot of effort has been put into unlocking frozen credit markets, and a steeper yield curve just gives banks more incentive to lend. For more, see our 05/04/2009 cover story, “Chucking Darts.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: The government has decided to discard their plan to cap salaries for TARP firms, but will still cap bonuses. To stay competitive, TARP firms will simply increase salaries as a way around the restrictions. But will reducing performance-based incentives be the right move? Price controls always lead to distortions.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It’s true—sharply increased money supply means inflation is a greater risk. And the Fed will likely have to increase rates later to soak up excess liquidity. But inflation won’t become much of a risk until economic recovery is well underway. And how the Fed deals with down-the-road inflation will depend on down-the-road overall conditions. It’s too early to speculate now.
Sensible Stories
By , CNBC, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View: We won’t know for sure for some time. Recessions aren’t officially dated until long after they’ve passed. But with the stock market surging since March, it’s believable stocks are pricing in a recovery in the fore.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We can play the finger-pointing game forever. Fact is, historically, deficit high points have been followed by great stock returns in developed markets. Don’t fear deficits.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Curious Capitalist, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Probably not and not for a while. But why be surprised? Unemployment is a lagging indicator at the end of bear markets. Don’t be surprised if unemployment keeps rising even as the market surges. It’s not unusual, and it won’t hinder recovery.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Folks think stashing cash in the proverbial mattress makes them safe. Untrue. First, saving in low-yielding instruments can mean getting ravaged by inflation. Second, sometimes the proverbial mattress isn’t so proverbial.
Market Misperceptions
By , Fortune, 06/10/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We disagree. Paying back TARP removes government strictures, which ultimately is better for customers and shareholders.
Market Misperceptions
By , Fortune, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Debt’s a favorite target. But it’s silly to extrapolate government debt to a personal liability. Think about it—the cost for the government to borrow is historically low right now. And, periods following deficit high points historically have been overwhelmingly positive for stocks.
Sensible Stories
By , Los Angeles Times, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: A very positive sign—ten of the nation’s largest banks are in a position to repay TARP funds.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
If the government were really interested in the healthy functioning of Citi, they’d leave off the inconsistent futzing we saw in 2008 that led to heightened uncertainty and aggravated the crisis.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money , 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: When times are tough, folks inevitably want to decry “excess profits” as somehow bad. But remember, profit motive is what drives innovation, which turns into the new, the better, the cheaper, the faster—whether you’re talking about cool electronics, financing for a home, or life-saving medical discoveries.
Market Misperceptions
By , Yahoo Finance, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
First, oil prices were too low, and that was bad. Now, they might be too high, and that’s bad too? Fact is, historically, there’s no meaningful correlation between oil prices and stock market direction.
Sensible Stories
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: Cap-and-trade is a tax on business. And we all know if you tax something more, you get less of it. Do we really want less American business and ingenuity?
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
If you haven’t been in the market the past three months, your portfolio has definitely missed a significant upswing, but it’s never too late to take advantage of the future bull market upside.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSN Money, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View: This is mind-bogglingly bad advice. Even if your employer doesn’t match, you still contribute to your 401(k) with pre-tax dollars, and it still grows tax deferred. The 401(k) should be the first stop for your savings!
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 06/09/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Because they revealed so much last time? Another round of tests will likely prove quite unproductive.
Sensible Stories
By , Daily Finance, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Perhaps, but it will be almost entirely the government’s fault. This is what happens when you set price controls (wages, in this case).
Market Misperceptions
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It’s much too early to tell! Fiscal stimulus is always imperfect and takes time—longer than folks assume—to work its way through the system. See our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Post, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Though TARP repayment doesn’t necessarily signal all is well, it’s a positive development some big banks can now repay the government.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’ve said before having one regulatory body will likely be more efficient than several different ones with overlapping jurisdictions and fuzzy mandates. And it could eliminate political posturing, allowing for better oversight. Will it eliminate all future crises? Never! But in general, simplification is a good idea. See our 12/12/2007 cover story, “Simplify, Simplify,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Times, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’re all for letting the market dictate prices—including salaries. Capping pay creates distortions and likely drives talent elsewhere with no salary caps.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The road to recovery is never a smooth, paved highway. There have always been, and always will be, bumps and potholes, but recovery will happen. Remember, bull markets climb a wall of worry.
Market Misperceptions
By , Real Clear Markets, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’re utterly confused how there can be deflation and inflation at the same time. With all the recent global monetary stimulus, inflation is the greater risk, but not until we surpass a high level of capacity utilization. That’s a concern for a few years down the road.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The skeptics will likely be skeptics for a long time if they continue looking at indicators like earnings and consumer sentiment. Remember, the stock market is the ultimate leading indicator. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: True, debt-backed government stimulus is clumsy, but global stimulus initiatives—monetary and fiscal—will ultimately have a positive impact. See today’s cover story, “One War at a Time,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: We are all for increased transparency, but you cannot simultaneously punish and help Financials recover. Banks are proving healthier than most fathomed a few months ago and are able to raise capital without the aid of government programs like PPIP—a good thing. Let’s not hamstring a recovery before it’s done.
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: The Baltic Dry Index is a useful, but often overlooked, coincident economic indicator—right now it’s reflecting a strong recovery ahead.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: Activism at the FDIC is evidence US Financials still have a great deal of regulatory uncertainty to deal with.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSNBC, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: While it’s a possibility current monetary policy may increase inflation in the future, for now rising rates may just indicate investors’ returning risk appetite. For more, see today’s cover story, “One War at a Time.”
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: Expect unemployment to rise as stocks stage a recovery—employment data is a lagging economic and market indicator. For more, see our 03/09/2009 cover story, “Employing Sound Judgment.”
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: A global recovery is well on its way, and developing markets are reflecting this with outsized stock market returns versus the developed world so far this year.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Let’s learn from our European friends: “It's not a good idea to add a somewhat-bad tax like the VAT on top of a really bad tax system.”
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: And why wouldn’t they? Taxing offshore profits will just encourage big companies to do what’s best for their shareholders—move operations overseas to save money. See our 05/05/2009 cover story, “The Taxman May Cometh,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Exactly why the government should allow willing and able banks to repay the loans. See today’s cover story, “Banks and the Temple of Doom,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Guardian, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: The BOE and ECB’s decision to keep rates steady could be a positive sign—officials see no reason to lower rates any further since it appears fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts so far are beginning to show positive results.
Market Misperceptions
By , VOX, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Some doomsayers are still making comparisons to the Great Depression, but there are more differences than similarities. For more, see our 04/02/2009 cover story, “Fool’s Errand.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’re uncertain as to what qualifies the IMF to be the world’s tax man, global super-regulator, or the chief decision-maker on which currency—real or pretend—the world must accept as reserve currency. 
Market Misperceptions
By , Kiplinger, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
A total mixed bag. While it’s true investors should keep a long-term focus and not “get caught up in day-to-day or minute-to-minute nuttiness,” it’s madness to suggest asset allocations based on what just got done happening. Markets look forward—so should investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Sure. All these things could happen and inflation ratchet higher. But there’s nothing we can do now to fight down-the-road inflation. How the Fed will (and should) act will be driven by these later economic conditions. But that won’t become an issue until we surpass a high level of capacity utilization—hardly a concern when the latest official data says the world is still largely in recession.
Sensible Stories
By , Dow Jones Newswires, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Very bullish sign since it means “banks have been able to raise capital without having to sell bad assets.”
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Very short-sighted. States that jack up taxes will likely see an exodus of productive people and a dwindling tax base. See our 05/19/2009 cover story, “Tarnished by Taxes,” for more. 
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
When politics are involved, shenanigans always ensue. But this change is a good thing, not a dubious thing.
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The exceptional policies used to deal with extreme circumstances are working.” We agree—a combination of fiscal and monetary policy was essential to addressing this financial crisis and economic downturn.
Sensible Stories
By , The Street, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: Banks have had no trouble raising capital in recent weeks, and their relative stability appears to be a welcome sign to investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , Telegraph, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Germany is the minority in the case of monetary and fiscal policy response to the economic crisis, and has lagged (along with most of Continental Europe) other global leaders in acting to stave off further decline.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: As banks make haste to raise sufficient capital to repay TARP loans, the government is preparing to announce who’s ready to go it on their own. The sooner the better.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Aside from risking the competitiveness of US companies, we’re not sure what this will accomplish.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
While high inflation is possible a couple years down the road, this is sheer hyperbole.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View: The notion of “Buy American” sounds patriotic, but ultimately hinders free trade and promotes isolationism—very bad things for the entire global economy.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/03/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Drawing a comparison between last year’s stock market performance and this year’s relies on a few well-timed coincidences, and doesn’t in any way portend what will transpire in the months to come.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Perhaps. But the economy needn’t recover sharply for stocks to do the same.  Read our 05/18/2009 cover story, “Separating Shoots from Stocks,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money , 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: Contrary to common fears the dollar is doomed—looks like the dollar will stick around as the global currency for quite some time. For more, see our 03/25/2009 cover story, "Short One Alien Invasion."
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: Banks are finding it much easier to raise capital—signaling things are not as dire now as was feared for Financials.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
And they’ll likely go higher still. But unemployment lags at the end of a bear. Expect to see markets recover first, then the economy, then employment.  For more, see our 03/09/2009 cover story, “Employing Sound Judgment.”
Sensible Stories
By , Newsvine, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: Chapter 11 reorganization, though never neat and simple, is GM’s best opportunity to restructure and rebuild.
Market Misperceptions
By , Telegraph, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Just as fears in the 1980s that Japan would “own” all of America turned out to be unfounded, so too will fears China will dominate America.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Street, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Unemployment is a lagging indicator at the end of bear markets—the market prices in the data well before the economy.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Street, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Sure, it could be. Stocks don’t appreciate in a straight line. But stocks don’t rise based on definitive signs of economic improvement—they rise in anticipation of economic improvement. Stocks lead the economy, not the other way around.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 06/02/2009
MarketMinder's View: The longer and higher this positive run goes, the more likely it’s a bona fide bull and less likely it’s a bear market rally. See our 05/27/2009 cover story, “Choose Rubber,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Inflation may be a future threat. But not until we surpass a high level of capacity utilization—which isn’t much of a concern when the economy appears to officially still be in recession. 
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Ultimately, so what? The Dow is a price-weighted index, and all price-weighted indexes are inherently flawed and misleading.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Gas prices are not correlated with economic or stock market movement. Folks want to think higher gas prices push stocks down, but gas and oil rose together the entirety of the last bull market, and stocks and oil both dropped a lot during the bear. There’s nothing predictive here.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Motley Fool, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Yes, the economy is still on “shaky ground.” But there are positives, and bull markets climb a wall of worry. Investors choosing to sit out and wait for stability will likely miss out on the steep, initial gains of a new bull market. See our 05/27/2009 cover story, “Choose Rubber,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Stocks never advance in a straight line. Just because one month’s gains are not as high as another’s doesn’t mean they can’t keep rising—there’s no historical precedent for this claim.
Sensible Stories
By , Times, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Ultimately it is, though like all bankruptcy reorganizations it will be messy and imperfect. See our 03/31/2009 cover story, “Tick Tock, Autos,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , USAToday, 06/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Bankruptcy “gives a company the opportunity to reduce costs by disposing of leases, contracts, employee benefits and, in some cases, court judgments or class action lawsuits.” A much better alternative to completely going out of business.