Home → Fisher Investments MarketMinder Headlines → 05-2009 Archives

Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It never is. But the economy needn’t rebound sharply for stocks to do so. For more, see our 05/18/2009 cover story, “Separating Shoots from Stocks.”
Sensible Stories
By , MSNBC, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: The government’s plan for the car firms they’re buying? "Get out as quickly as possible, do what's necessary to ensure that there's a viable business plan being competently implemented and stay out of the day-to-day." Is that the right attitude? Yes! Do we believe it? Not particularly.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The consumer is dead” is a recurring fear, near ubiquitous in all recessions. After every recession comes recovery, and with it, resurgent consumer spending. The more people say it’s different this time, the more you know it’s not.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Times, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: We agree, but for a different reason. It’s likely Britain’s stress tests have the same results as America’s—they’ll show the banking system is in better shape than most fear. For more, see our 05/07/2009 cover story, “Don’t Stress the Tests.”
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: The faster GM can restructure via Chapter 11, the better off the company will be. For more, see our 05/28/2009 cover story, “Out With a Thud.”
Sensible Stories
By , Newsvine, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Just like proud parents, we’re happy to see banks and investment firms weaning themselves off the Fed’s funds—all positive signs of an easing credit market.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Slate, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: GM filing for bankruptcy is hardly bad news—it’s quite the opposite. Restructuring the auto industry is a must for a viable, healthy future for the firm.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/29/2009
MarketMinder's View: Oddly, this dreadful GDP reading is generally positive. What matters most is reality versus expectation, and the expectation was for much worse.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: Chapter 11 bankruptcy, while always trying and messy, doesn’t mean doom for the automaker.
Sensible Stories
By , TheStreet.com, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: Once-troubled Financials are finding multiple ways to raise capital.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It’s true—folks generally have always over-estimated the returns they get on their home. And, long term, the return on real estate mostly comes from leverage. But keep in mind, the index cited has a very short history and measures just a few areas.
Market Misperceptions
By , Los Angeles Times, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Wrong. Stocks are still cheaper than they’ve been in a long time. For more, see our 05/12/2009 cover story, “Too Fast, Too Furious?”
Market Misperceptions
By , Telegraph, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
No. Time will allow the massive global monetary and fiscal stimulus to work its way through the financial system, helping the economy recover.
Market Misperceptions
By , Fortune, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Undoubtedly, if commercial developers can’t get credit, it spells trouble for them. But liquidity is returning to credit markets, and the Fed has proved nimble (though stumbling occasionally) in juicing liquidity. 
Market Misperceptions
By , The Market Oracle, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Could it? Sure, anything is possible. But the VIX is inherently backward-looking, and P/E ratios—high or low—don’t indicate future risk.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/28/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Barriers to commerce are a surefire way to prolong the recession.” Exactly. Lawmakers would do well to remember the ramifications of Smoot-Hawley—and avoid trade barriers.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View: A prime example credit is flowing more freely, Bank of America is “well on its way” to meeting the approximately $34 billion in capital requirements regulators demanded in the recent stress test results.
Sensible Stories
By , The Washington Post, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View: Chrysler’s bankruptcy judge is scheduled to consider a motion to sell most of the carmaker’s assets to a new entity led by Fiat. “[This] would set up the automaker for one of the biggest and fastest bankruptcy proceedings of its kind.”
Sensible Stories
By , US News, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View: Joey Schumpeter, anyone? Increasing market share, R&D, and reallocation of employment all have the potential to yield positive results in the aftermath of a bad recession.
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View: Concern over “exploding” US debt is unfounded. Rather than an excuse as the author claims, increasing US debt has been a solution. This has been an unprecedented financial crisis, and stimulus spending will help carry us to the other side. For more, see our 02/05/2009 cover story, “On Borrowed Dime.”
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View: There won’t be many winners in this situation, as evidenced by the failure of a proposed debt-equity swap, but it still looks like Chapter 11 bankruptcy is the inevitable route to reorganization.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The US housing industry is in the doldrums, no doubt—but this isn’t a complete picture. Existing home sales are up, mortgage lending is up, and mortgage interest rates are down. Most importantly, the housing industry does not have to recover in order for the stock market or broader economy to recover first.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View: While inflation could be a concern some years down the road, a simple glance at long-term interest rates—the best market indicator for future inflation—reveals this story is hyperbole.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/27/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Investors would be wise to steer clear of complex investment vehicles they don’t understand. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Exactly backward. If this is like every past recession, unemployment will keep rising even after economic recovery is underway. The recovery leads employment, not the other way around.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Patience is a virtue. We can’t expect the vast stimulus to have immediate impact—the effects of such spending takes time. See our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Daily Finance, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: A few reasons why the FDIC won’t be tapped out of funds anytime soon. For more, read our 05/26/2009 cover story, “Extreme Makeover: Bank Edition.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Times, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
California’s problem isn’t its deficit. Its problem is unfriendly tax policies chasing productive people—and their tax revenue—from the state. For more, see our 05/19/2009 cover story, “Tarnished by Taxes,” for more
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Could the economy double dip? Sure, but don’t make the mistake of thinking the economy must rebound sharply for stocks to do the same. See our 05/18/2009 cover story, “Separating Shoots From Stocks,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: Yet another example of unintended consequences—the wealthy fleeing high-tax states.
Market Misperceptions
By , Money News, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The relative value of a currency has nothing to do with a nation’s deficit. America has had periods of both a strong and weak dollar during deficits. And the UK currently has a bigger deficit as a percent of GDP, yet the pound is stronger. No linking feature here.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: An additional $2.15 billion stimulus was announced in efforts to boost Hong Kong’s economy. The wall of global stimulus continues growing.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/26/2009
MarketMinder's View: Undoubtedly, some reform is needed to upgrade our rickety regulatory bodies, but it will be tempting for politicians to overreach. This will be an unfolding story to watch. For more, see our 05/15/2009 cover story, “Regulatory Redux.”
Sensible Stories
By , InvestmentNews, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: As increasing stability returns to credit markets, money fund firms are seeing a decline in investors’ concerns regarding the safety of their investments, and pulling out of the Treasury’s guarantee program. Investors are now ready to forgo the cost to their returns levied by the program’s insurance.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: During an economic downturn, especially one of this magnitude, banks will fail—the FDIC is in place for this reason. This is not a cause for concern, as private equity firms are already stepping in to pick up the pieces.
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Yes, there is room for regulatory improvement in London’s substantial finance industry, however “diversifying the economy away from finance, not reinforc[ing] its overly strong comparative advantage” is not the answer. Let free enterprise decide where capital should be allocated.
Sensible Stories
By , Morningstar, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: “History tells us that the stock market will likely be up 50% by the time economic improvement is obvious.”
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View: S&P’s downgrade of the UK’s triple-A outlook doesn’t necessarily mean the US is next, but even so, it doesn’t much matter. For more, see today’s cover story, “Small Potatoes.”
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Partially blaming credit cards for the economic downturn seems like a stretch, and although increased transparency will benefit consumers, this bill doesn’t hold much else. No need to fear significant market disruption. For more, see our 05/21/2009 cover story, “Political Pavement.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
California’s budget is admittedly in dire straits, but contrary to this author’s hypothesis, the country’s economy can and will recover despite it. For more, see our 05/19/2009 cover story, “Tarnished by Taxes.”
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
On the contrary, Chapter 11 bankruptcy is the next logical (and inevitable) step for GM, and the only one that allows for comprehensive restructuring of the faltering firm.
Market Misperceptions
By , USA Today, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Setting finite milestones to indicate the beginning of a bull market is ineffective at best. If there were certainties in the forecasting business, we’d all be winners.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/22/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The world has not been turned on its head, rather, investors just weathered a severe bear market. This does not mean all previously held investing beliefs must be thrown out the window.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Yes, things are still tough. But that doesn’t mean markets can’t recover. Stocks historically bottom and rise before employment does. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: Capitalism at work. The strong survive and absorb the smaller, weaker institutions—leading to a more robust and stable industry down the road. See our 05/20/2009 cover story, “Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: An important opinion on the dangers of upending law and capital structure.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Los Angeles Times, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’ve said it before: Higher taxes will incentivize businesses and higher-income residents to move to lower-tax states. Even so, California’s budget woes will have little, if any, impact on the US economy and stock market. See our 05/19/2009 cover story, “Tarnished by Taxes,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , International Business Times, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: And why shouldn’t they? TARP has too many restrictions to be a viable, long-term option for banking competitiveness and profitability. See our 01/22/2009 cover story, “Strings Attached,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Newsweek, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Monetary and fiscal stimulus needs time to make its way through the system—premature criticism is just that: Premature. See our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/21/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Human beings find uncertainty more painful than the things they’re uncertain about.” Markets work similarly. See our 03/04/2009 cover story, “Washington Waffles,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View:
One thing here is correct: “Analysis is a better context than catalyst.” Other than that, focusing on price levels is arbitrary at best. Markets move on supply and demand pressures, not shapes formed by some technical indicators.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View:
States that raise taxes to close budget deficits will likely find themselves in a worse hole as productive folks flee to friendlier environs. For more, see our 05/19/2009 cover story, “Tarnished by Taxes.”
Sensible Stories
By , The Telegraph, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View: The BOE is contributing to the wall of global monetary and fiscal stimulus that should prove bullish for the world overall.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View: One reason? “Politicians can only make political decisions, not economic ones. They are, after all, first and foremost in the re-election business. Because of the need to be re-elected, politicians are always likely to have a short-term bias.”
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View:
For good or for bad, always ignore the VIX. It’s inherently backward-looking and faulty. You only know if it’s formed a peak or trough with long hindsight, and the peaks are always relative—not very useful.
Sensible Stories
By , Los Angeles Times, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View: Perfectly good customers paying for others’ faults? As we’ve said before, this is just another example of unintended consequences hard at work.
Sensible Stories
By , USA Today, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’d have to agree with Californians on this one—increased taxes create an environment unfriendly to employers and employees. For more, see our 05/19/2009 cover story, “Tarnished by Taxes.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The Times , 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View: Not great news. But, keep in mind, markets move ahead of the economy.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/20/2009
MarketMinder's View: In efforts to increase private capital after its stress test results, BofA participated in a successful share sale—a positive showing banks aren’t in as dire shape going forward as many fear.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNN Money, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“One hurdle to putting Fannie and Freddie back on firm financial footing is the many vacancies in their executive ranks. Hiring has been slowed by compensation concerns, the agency said.” Hmm. Maybe top talent doesn’t want their pay dictated by the government? Just a possibility.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Ignore the VIX—it’s inherently a backward-looking, faulty indicator.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The fact is, the recession’s end won’t show up in “official” data until long after it’s over, and it will take longer still to “feel” as though it’s over. But that won’t keep the market from rising, because historically, stocks lead the economy. See our 05/18/2009 cover story, “Separating Shoots from Stocks,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: Inevitable—and the best option.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Ah yes! The law of unintended consequences at work. Because Congress wants to tell credit card companies how to run their businesses, everyone ends up paying more. Well done, Congress.
Sensible Stories
By , Morningstar, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: Economic recoveries are never perfectly linear. Nor are market recoveries. See our 05/14/2009 cover story, “The Crooked Road to Recovery,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , ABC News, 05/19/2009
MarketMinder's View: Goldman and Morgan Stanley have officially requested permission to start repaying TARP funds. Whether they’ll be “allowed to” is a development worth watching.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Smart reform yields more information, not more regulation.” Agreed. Introducing overly onerous regulation won’t improve financial markets or prevent another crisis.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: “People, investment capital and businesses are mobile: They can leave tax-unfriendly states and move to tax-friendly states.” Exactly why more taxes do not equal more money for state coffers.
Market Misperceptions
By , MSNBC, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Yes, but when is bankruptcy ever easy? Chapter 11 bankruptcy gives US automakers the best chance at reviving this faltering industry. See our 03/31/2009 cover story, “Tick Tock, Autos,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Anyone making stock market forecasts a decade into the future is telling you more about what they don’t know than what they know. Ignore.
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“The stock market has run out of reasons to rally, at least for now.” Not necessarily. With dour sentiment as pervasive as it is, a lack of news can be cause for a market rally.
Sensible Stories
By , TheStreet, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: Banks wanting to repay their TARP loans should be allowed to do so. Investors are already well aware which banks are healthy enough to repay TARP funds and which aren’t. See our 03/17/2009 cover story, “The Inscrutable Federal Mind,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: Fleeing stocks simply because they’ve done poorly is a classic fight or flight response to recent turmoil. Be careful of falling prey to this behavioral misstep.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The reality is that crises are more often caused by bad regulation than by deregulation.” Yep. See our 01/05/2009 column, “Deregulation … Regulation … What’s the Difference?” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View: A cogent article describing why the current economic downturn is not a “1930 redux.”
Market Misperceptions
By , SmartMoney, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The official declaration of recessions’ beginnings and ends can be inconsistent and have little meaning for the stock market.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/18/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The investing environment is never pristine. Investors waiting for “sure signs” of economic improvement will likely be waiting until well after the stock market has begun recovering. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Economic Indicator,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Taiwan News , 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: Although brutal, keep in mind the size of Russia’s economy relative to the world is very tiny. 
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: This isn’t a surprise—expect unemployment to continue rising. Historically, this is typical in the early stages of new bull markets.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: Increased regulation is not always the best solution, but in this case, we’d have to agree with more transparency. See today’s cover story, “Regulatory Redux,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Yahoo Finance, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: Not only is this fear mongering, but it also fails to realize stocks tend to rally ahead of the economy, not with it.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: ECB’s decision to buy covered bonds is innovative and is yielding positive results as the wall of global stimulus continues.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Guardian, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: The Eurozone would likely benefit from increasing their stimulus efforts and catching up to the rest of the developed world. See our 5/8/2009 cover story, “Fashionably Flaky,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: As indicated by interbank lending measures, it appears the influx of government policy measures is working to thaw credit markets.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/15/2009
MarketMinder's View: TARP funds are being allocated to six qualifying insurers, relieving investors’ tension over the future of the healthcare industry. Necessary or not, it’s more evidence the government is willing to provide a backstop wherever necessary to ensure stability.
Market Misperceptions
By , Associated Press, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Regulation is never perfect, but increased transparency here would be beneficial.
Market Misperceptions
By , SmartMoney, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Will there be another bubble one day? Sure—almost certainly. Are we in it right now? Probably not. Hard to see how anyone is needlessly exuberant about any asset class.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: Restructuring’s painful but necessary—and a far better alternative than sending good money after bad. See our 03/31/2009 cover story, “Tick Tock, Autos,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Seeking Alpha, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: Are things less than ideal right now? Undoubtedly. Are we irrevocably becoming the USSR, with thousands likely to “starve or freeze to death in their own homes”? We feel safe saying no.
Sensible Stories
By , Dow Jones Newswires, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: It will be interesting if any smaller banks sign up for the TARP funds, having witnessed what their larger brethren had to go through.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: “We have a very long downward path to follow before we get anywhere near the pain associated with the Great Depression.” Very true.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Sure. The renminbi could replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. Just as soon as it develops a bond market, grows its stock market by a factor of 10, gets rid of capital controls, and removes its currency peg.  After it does all that, then we can talk. See our 03/25/2009 cover story, “Short One Alien Invasion,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The New Zealand Herald, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View: Increasing global free trade is the right move—helps improve the global economy in aggregate.
Market Misperceptions
By , BusinessWeek, 05/14/2009
MarketMinder's View:
While we agree flaws exist in the bankruptcy code, we still think Chapter 11 bankruptcy, rather than liquidation, is a better option for insolvent firms.
Sensible Stories
By , Seeking Alpha, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View: Maybe the bull market has begun, or maybe we’ll retest previous lows. Trying to perfectly time a bear market bottom is futile. But it is true that “rallies such as the current one have been sustained before, repeatedly. Historically, the stock market has begun its recovery several months before the end of a recession.”
Sensible Stories
By , Slate, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View: It just might, and it certainly should. Bankruptcy, while never neat and clean, is preferable here.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Everyone hates higher taxes. And higher corporate tax rates can make us less competitive globally. But in the past, tax rate moves don’t necessarily correlate to stock market direction. You must think globally. See our 04/08/2009 cover story, “To the Tax Mobile,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Barron’s, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Folks who bemoan they’ll never recoup bear market losses are making a cognitive error—assuming future returns will be similar to long-term equity averages. But long-term averages can be deceptive. Bull market returns must be higher to make up for bear markets. See today’s cover story, “Throwback to High-Waters,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View: Credit markets do indeed show signs of coming back to life.
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View: What matters is reality versus too-dour expectations. See our 5/11/2009 cover story, “A Medium Rare Market,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The government needs to figure out what it wants to do—punish banks or goad them into lending. You can’t do both at the same time. Restricting pay likely just deters talented candidates from the industry all together. What good does that do for the future of financials?
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Aren’t ratings given on a bit of a curve? If America loses its Triple A rating, who does it lose it relative to?
Market Misperceptions
By , US News, 05/13/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Of course the stress tests were rather silly and don’t ensure anything. However, the current yield curve environment is a profitable one for banks.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: We would agree raising taxes on the rich or anyone else in this environment is the wrong prescription for economic growth.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Times, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“The bulls may be running again, but wary investors should think hard about just how long their upward charge might last.” The start of a new bull market is rarely widely acknowledged as such until the market recovery is well underway.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The financial crisis had more to do with policy missteps in the last 18 months than monetary policy in last six years.
Sensible Stories
By , Real Clear Markets, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: Want more job growth? Lowering corporate tax rates is a great place to start.
Sensible Stories
By , Fortune, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: Regulators can’t simultaneously try and help financial firms and burden them with onerous restrictions.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The economy and the stock market aren’t the same thing. The stock market will move higher well before the economy shows signs of complete recovery.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’d hardly call investors irrationally exuberant these days. In fact, most remain skeptical of the market’s recent rise. There’s likely a long way to go before exuberance sets in.
Sensible Stories
By , Time, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: A quick move into Chapter 11 would save valuable time and taxpayer dollars.
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: As we’ve said repeatedly, “There may be surface similarities on some dimensions, but there are far more differences than there are similarities.”
Market Misperceptions
By , NPR, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
A widening trade deficit shouldn’t concern investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The first 90% of this article lists fairly detailed reasons why stocks are rallying only to finish with no details on why the rally won’t last. Ignore the last 10%.
Sensible Stories
By , ABC News, 05/12/2009
MarketMinder's View: We can’t be sure the recession is over, but there are definitely signs of recovery.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
We’ve seen unprecedented, massive global stimulus—and that’s bullish. Doomsayers bicker that it’s either too much or not enough, but government stimulus is always messy and never perfect. The US and European governments have acted swiftly and appropriately, in our view. See our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“It turns out that about 75% of the value of shares is actually based on dividends that will be paid more than eleven years from now”? Really? Eleven years from now? Not thirteen? Or 12.63? Stock prices are determined by supply and demand—nothing more.
Market Misperceptions
By , CNBC, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: If this is indeed a “bear market rally,” it’s one of the biggest in the S&P 500’s history. Even if it is, trying to time a bear market bottom is foolhardy. It’s better to just wait it out—full bull market returns swamp late stage bear vicissitudes, and early bull gains are sharp and steep.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Many banks have said they will pay back TARP funding as quickly as possible in order to avoid strict regulations on their activity…imposed by the government.” Doesn’t surprise us. See our 01/22/2009 cover story, “Strings Attached,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Times, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: “There is a double-dip risk, though not if the world economy returns to robust growth, something even a gloomy IMF expects during the course of next year.” It’s true—the economy is more resilient than most fear—and it’s how the economy performs relative to expectations that matters. See today’s cover story, “A Medium Rare Market,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , The Times, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’ll only know if the bear market is officially over after more time passes, but either way, now is indeed a great time to get in or stay invested.
Sensible Stories
By , Bloomberg, 05/11/2009
MarketMinder's View: And why not? See our 03/31/2009 cover story, “Tick Tock, Autos,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Unemployment has certainly risen—and it will likely continue rising even as the market does. Historically, at the end of a bear market, unemployment lags market and economic recovery.
Sensible Stories
By , BusinessWeek , 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Some news stories spin this as a negative, but falling inventories can mean merchandise is being pulled off shelves due to increased demand—this is bullish.
Sensible Stories
By , Reuters, 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Betting against the latest upsurge in US stocks is likely to be a losing proposition even for the balance of May.” In this and any year, seasonal myths about stock returns don’t hold water. See our 05/06/2009 cover story, “Pop Quiz, Hotshot,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , EU Business, 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Free trade will help spur economic relief for the EU and China.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: It looks like banks are good and ready to leave the government’s nest.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: “The best that can be said about the stress tests is that they're over. Now the most urgent task is to get back to a financial system free of government guarantees, public capital and political control.”
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/08/2009
MarketMinder's View: Will the recession linger on for another year or even two? Possible, though historically unusual. Still, today’s steep global yield curve makes a very profitable environment for banks—all good news. 
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: A good perspective (albeit from a former politician, mind you) detailing the pros and cons of government involvement in labor negotiation—without implementing ill-conceived legislation.
Sensible Stories
By , The Times, 05/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: Late to the party, but finally here. Europe further joins the monetary stimulus party.
Market Misperceptions
By , Investor’s Business Daily, 05/07/2009
MarketMinder's View:
A collection of overly dour views managing to put negative spins on better-than-expected results. Ignore.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/07/2009
MarketMinder's View:
On balance, markets have yawned at the results of the stress tests—the details of which mostly leaked days ago. See today’s cover story, “Don’t Stress the Tests,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/07/2009
MarketMinder's View:
In our view, government action has been swift and will be stimulative for the economy—precisely what is needed right now. 
Sensible Stories
By , The New York Times, 05/07/2009
MarketMinder's View: An explanation of the stress tests straight from the Treasury Secretary.
Sensible Stories
By , CNNMoney, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View: We hate to say “told you so,” so we won’t. Instead, see our 03/31/2009 cover story, “Tick Tock, Autos,” for more. Chapter 11 is the right road.
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Maybe the bear is over, maybe it isn’t. But when bull markets get underway, it’s very common to see plenty of folks calling it a bear market rally for months and miss the fast, initial sharp bull market surge.
Sensible Stories
By , TheStreet.com, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View: If the government’s going to insist on bank stress tests, we’d prefer more openness and less wishy-washiness. See our 04/16/2009 cover story, “The Government’s Learning Curve,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View:
A month ago, media headlines proclaimed this downturn would never end. Now, it’s that the recovery will dissatisfy. Where’s the joy that a recovery may soon be underway?
Market Misperceptions
By , Reuters, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View:
In other news, almost half of Americans think the worst is over! Surveys are dangerously deceptive—don’t buy into them.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View:
It doesn’t matter if the bottom looks like a V or W—you can’t know until well after the fact. By then, you’ve missed the initial surge, and historically, bull market beginnings are fast and steep. Don’t miss out by trying to perfectly time the bottom.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View: “Fewer companies will keep their headquarters in the US, especially small or mid-sized firms that can slip away without becoming a political target.” Exactly—and this will hurt the US in the long run.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/06/2009
MarketMinder's View: Stimulus programs are always awkward and unwieldy. But this unprecedented wall of global stimulus will eventually hit the economy and goad recovery. See our 01/14/2009 cover story, “Patience With Punches,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Tools like Monte Carlo simulation are intended to assign probabilities to outcomes. No tool can predict the future with certainty. Those expecting otherwise were using these tools incorrectly to begin with.
Sensible Stories
By , CNN Money, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: A good illustration of how long it takes to actually get stimulus spending going. Fortunately, current stimulus programs include plans for immediate, medium-, and long-term spending.
Sensible Stories
By , Morningstar, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: A positive light in some recent economic data.
Market Misperceptions
By , Financial Times, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View:
The dollar is the dominant global currency for good reason. Dollar weakness shouldn’t be a concern for global investors.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“The stock market doesn’t have any more of a clue about what will happen than the rest of us.” We disagree. The stock market leads the economy. It did prior to this economic downturn, and it will before an economic recovery takes hold.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Times , 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View:
“The recession has helped to create a surge in the number of people reporting criminals to claim rewards from Crimestoppers.” And what’s wrong with this? Rewards have been used as an incentive for as long as we can remember, with or without a recession.
Sensible Stories
By , Financial Times, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: This is not only positive for banks, but “it suggests confidence among investors is growing and that the global economy is past the worst of the financial crisis.”
Sensible Stories
By , CNBC, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: Some strategists are beginning to believe this rally has legs, but most are still skeptical. This is bullish.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Motley Fool, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View:
You know what’s ridiculous? Everything about this argument.
Sensible Stories
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/05/2009
MarketMinder's View: Some details about what’s on Mr. Obama’s agenda. See today’s cover story, “The Taxman May Cometh,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , MarketWatch, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: History says otherwise. In fact, “V” bottoms are characteristic of new bull markets.
Sensible Stories
By , Foreign Policy, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: During this recession, the focus should be on expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, not on cutting deficits. See our 1/28/2009 cover story, “Mountains of Money,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
There’s no need to hide your hard earned money under the mattress. On the whole, banks have largely stabilized and governments worldwide are working to ensure they stay that way.
Market Misperceptions
By , FOX News, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
This is a mild negative for markets, but already widely expected, and thus likely priced in. Increasing taxes during a recession doesn’t encourage consumers to spend more or businesses to expand.
Sensible Stories
By , SmartMoney, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: We’re on track to fix some key problems plaguing the economy, and with pessimists calling this a “sucker’s rally” (and keeping their money on the sidelines), now is a great time to be in the market.
Market Misperceptions
By , The New York Times, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Concerns over the rising government deficit are misplaced. Increased spending is integral to boosting the economy during recessionary times. See our 4/23/2009 cover story, “Packing on the Pounds,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , Bloomberg, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: An overly-dour look at the future of home prices in America.
Sensible Stories
By , The New Zealand Herald, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: “First-quarter earnings so far from across the market are coming in better than expected—largely as a result of a very low bar.” Markets respond to changes in relative expectations—that earnings are far better than expected is bullish.
Sensible Stories
By , Kiplinger, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: Open global trade is a key component for economic recovery.
Market Misperceptions
By , Time, 05/04/2009
MarketMinder's View: It’s unlikely a GM Chapter 11 filing will be any more damaging to the economy than Chrysler’s. Simply because one automaker has entered Chapter 11 doesn’t mean it’s not the correct route for another. Ultimately, big US autos need to restructure.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Business Insider, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
This economic and market downturn is dramatically different than the Great Depression and Japan’s “Lost Decade,” so don’t expect this market recovery to look the same as it did during those periods.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Overly dour sentiment today is positive for stocks looking forward. See our 11/04/2008 cover story, “The Ultimate Leading Indicator,” and 04/29/2009 cover story, “The Baby-Talk Indicator,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , MSN Money, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Don’t wait for good economic news for the stock market to turn. Stocks will rise in expectation of better times ahead. Market recoveries often begin amid dour news.
Sensible Stories
By , US News, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: While it may be too soon to declare a new bull market, signs—like cash on the sidelines and overly dour sentiment—indicate a new bull is in the works.
Sensible Stories
By , SmartMoney, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: Best way to deal with swine flu fears? Wash your hands of germs, but don’t wash your portfolio of stocks. See our 04/28/2009 cover story, “This Little Piggy,” for more.
Sensible Stories
By , Daily Finance, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View: More government indecisiveness likely means continued uncertainty surrounding financial stocks. See our 03/04/2009 cover story, “Washington Waffles,” for more.
Market Misperceptions
By , The Wall Street Journal, 05/01/2009
MarketMinder's View:
Chapter 11 bankruptcy isn’t easy, but it’s the best prescription for this ailing automaker.