Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
The Global View

We’re (Not) All Turning Japanese

By, 05/24/2013

 

Source: Getty Images News.

Japanese stocks fell about 7% on Thursday, in part based on a negative Chinese manufacturing report. No matter how big a move up or down, a single day’s move says nothing about future direction. However, in our view there are likely better opportunities elsewhere in 2013.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Trade

Solar Wars: A (Un)Renewable Hope?

By, 05/22/2013

 

The sun seems to want to set on the solar panel industry, but it remains to be seen if global governments will let it. Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images.

A few years ago, China started making quite a bit of headway in state-run alternative energy initiatives, specifically with solar panel production. However, being state-run—and China being a communist country—the funding for Chinese solar panel production came primarily from heavy government subsidies. Shortly thereafter, the US and the EU also began heavily subsidizing solar panel production, ostensibly to keep up with China—but it probably didn’t hurt that green energy was and continues to be politically popular. But as Chinese solar panels got cheaper, and US and EU firms couldn’t keep up, both nations started accusing China of “dumping” solar panels in their territory (selling them below market cost) and threatened retaliatory tariffs.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Market Cycles, Corporate Earnings

All-Time Highs … and Still Undervalued?

By, 05/21/2013

 

Stocks likely see plenty more all-time highs as investors bid up firms with the most stable earnings growth during the bull market’s latter stages. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Politics, Media Hype/Myths

The Return of the Debt Ceiling

By, 05/20/2013

A cold front obscures the view of the northeastern US from the debt ceiling. Source: Getty Images News.

The 107th debt ceiling increase sailed through Washington Sunday, despite the fact Congress wasn’t even in session.

Elisabeth Dellinger
The Global View

Lessons from Bangladesh

By, 05/20/2013

Until April 24, “Bangladeshi garment worker” probably wasn’t your first answer if someone asked you what the world’s most dangerous occupations are—miner, oil rig operator, firefighter, secret agent, North Korean tour guide or Russian NGO worker probably topped the list instead. Yet for years, unknown to many in the Western hemisphere, over four million Bangladeshi have toiled in overcrowded buildings where fire and collapse are woefully regular occurrences. The factory collapse at Rana Plaza—death toll 1,127—is only the latest in a series of avoidable disasters. But unlike the dozens of fires over the years, the deadly collapse made headlines globally, raising awareness—and everyone agrees it can’t happen again.

So, what are people doing about it?

Several European retailers—many of which had contracts with the collapsed factory—have pledged to conduct regular health and safety inspections and fund building improvements at factories they’ve contracted throughout Bangladesh and the developing world. Many North American retailers are progressing on a similar pact, and others have announced solo efforts to monitor and improve working conditions up and down their supply chain. Which is all great—Western capital and know-how can do a great deal—but it’s likely insufficient. Major retailers contract with only about one-fifth of Bangladesh’s factories. Other factories produce goods for small and independent retailers who likely don’t have the resources to conduct inspections and fund improvements—they largely have to accept the factory owners’ descriptions of building safety and working conditions on faith.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Others

Waiting for Shinzo-man

By, 05/17/2013

Hopefully Shinzo Abe says, “High five for structural economic reforms!” Source: Getty Images News

Thursday, Japanese Q1 GDP rose 3.5% y/y annualized, easily beating expectations of just 2.7% y/y and for many, validating Japanese equities’ 20.7%i climb so far this year. These gains are likely at least partly the effect of arrows one and two of Abenomics—Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “three-arrowed” strategy to end the country’s decades long economic funk. However, in our view, sustained growth—and Japanese equity outperformance—from here will likely require Japan unleash the third arrow in the Abenomics quiver: Structural economic reforms—a task that’s proven too difficult for prime ministers in the recent past, Abe included.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Politics

Icing the Gridlock Cake

By, 05/16/2013

It’s been a tough week for the Obama administration—and that’s likely a great thing for stocks.

First, political scandals are nothing new—been around since long before Julius Caesar “et tu, Bruted.” And scandals tend to be the stuff of second terms. Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica-gate. Politicians get tired and sloppy. The press honeymoon (if there was one) is long over. Folks increasingly realize the president isn’t a paragon but a mere human full of foibles. Indiscretions glossed over a few years back start getting second looks.

And yet, the mere existence of scandal(s) isn’t a surefire sign of a politician’s downfall. If that were true, Silvio Berlusconi would be cooling his heels in jail, not participating as an active member of the Italian senate while he awaits yet another ruling on an appeal on his myriad crimes for which he has actually been convicted. Ulysses S. Grant has a relatively untarnished reputation as a war hero, yet served two scandal-ridden terms (the Whiskey Ring, Credit Mobilier). Woodrow Wilson “kept us out of war” but was openly enthusiastic of a creepy propaganda film, The Birth of a Nation. Harry Truman helped rebuild Europe but employed a heckuva lot of Soviet spies. Bill Clinton was impeached but not convicted and finished out his term and remains a power broker. More recently, disgraced former governor Mark Sanford returned to his old congressional seat on Wednesday. And, amazingly (or not, actually), reformed Tweeter Anthony Weiner is mounting a legitimate mayoral bid in NYC.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Others

EU Regulatory Wrangling—The Saga Continues

By, 05/15/2013

Since Cyprus’s bailout debacle in March, a question has lurked globally: Will the Cypriot model, in which uninsured depositors took a giant haircut, be the template for future bank failures in the EU?

That question was the subject of intense debate at Tuesday’s meeting of EU finance ministers, and while the group made incremental progress on a common mechanism for winding down failed banks (aka “resolution”), they still haven’t settled on who will have to take losses. Policymakers have been trying to settle this since January 2011, when the European Commission (EC) proposed establishing an EU-wide resolution scheme to keep taxpayers off the hook for future bank failures. Negotiations got a push in June 2012, when EU leaders made direct ESM bank recapitalizations contingent on a common resolution system, and Cyprus’s botched bailout added extra urgency. Now officials aim to submit a formal proposal to the EC and European Parliament (EP) in June, but they have their work cut out for them.

Everyone seems to agree banks and their investors/creditors, not taxpayers, should bear the brunt of future failures—all want to minimize moral hazard. And they largely agree the banks will take the first hit, using capital reserves to cover losses and insured deposits, with shareholders and then junior bondholders falling next. But they differ over the rest of the pecking order. Germany, Denmark, the UK and the Netherlands think uninsured depositors and senior bondholders should be equally liable for the bank’s losses. The EC and ECB think senior bondholders should take losses first, with uninsured depositors “bailed in” only as a last resort (similar to the US’s system), and Germany seems willing to compromise on this. But France thinks the supranational rules should broadly protect uninsured deposits while leaving the door open for haircuts only on a case-by-case basis.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Currencies

Latvia Likes the Euro (Lats)

By, 05/14/2013

For the last few years, there’s been a lot of talk about eurozone membership—specifically, struggling peripheral economies abandoning it. But on March 5, Latvia applied to become the 18th eurozone member in 2014. Isn’t that timing a little strange? Reading the news these days, you’d think no country wants to be part of the eurozone, never mind a country with a relatively healthy economy.

But we rather think Latvia’s bid illustrates just how hyperbolic and mistaken such discussions of the eurozone and its supposedly tenuous future are. Latvia’s seen economic boom, bust and bailout, returned to growth and yet wants to join the currency which, according to common-currency critics, is bound to fail. However, looking at Latvia’s history, we see a different tale of somewhat austere economic reform (featuring less government spending) putting a country on track for growth.

For the majority of its recent history, Latvia was either occupied or governed by the Soviet Union—not exactly known for its economic (or personal) freedoms. In fact (other than its tumultuous, war-filled early years), Latvia’s own economic history largely began in 1991 after declaring independence from the Soviet Union. A few relatively stagnant years later and Latvia’s economy was growing rapidly—becoming one of the fastest-growing European economies for almost a decade. But in 2008, while the global economy recessed, Latvia crashed hard, experiencing more than a 25% economic decline.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Corporate Earnings

Digging Into Earnings

By, 05/13/2013

Some folks seemingly fixate on slow GDP growth and suggest stocks’ rise in recent years has been “too fast” and detached from economic reality—a credit-fueled bubble, perhaps. Yet earnings tell a very different tale. And the next chapter is seemingly being written as we speak.

With 451 S&P companies reporting as of Friday, Q1 2013’s earnings season is winding down, and thus far the story is unchanged from recent quarters. While earnings growth rates may have slowed, analysts’ estimates are simply proving too dour. Of the firms reporting thus far, 67% topped analysts’ estimates—above the long-term average of 63% and matching the average over the last four quarters. The overall growth rate is 5.3% y/y—but that’s far ahead of start-of-quarter estimates predicting 1.5% growth. And actually, four years into a bull market and economic expansion, that’s pretty solid growth. After all, earnings aren’t rebounding from a low trough like they were in the bull market’s heady early years—they’re building upon record highs.

Revenues on average have been less robust in the quarter. In fact, rounded to the nearest whole number, the growth rate has been zero percent, and the percentage of firms beating has slowed to less than half.

Mary Holdener
Unconventional Wisdom

Comic: Running of the Bulls

By, 05/10/2013

HT: Thomas Perez

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Behavioral Finance, Investor Sentiment

Assessing Acrophobia

By, 05/10/2013

Hats were passed out to NYSE traders to celebrate the Dow passing 15,000. The hats also served the dual purpose of protecting from the sky potentially falling. Source: Getty Images.

The Dow crossed 15,000 earlier this week and headlines (seemingly on cue) bemoaned the disconnect between market highs and what’s so far been seemingly just ok economic growth. Others, too, chimed in with arguments justifying fears of new market highs and bubbles. Of course, we’ve panned the price-weighted Dow as a poor proxy for broader markets myriad times, but what of the S&P? It surpassed its past highs recently too—and broke through 1600 days later. Scary! But should it be?

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Media Hype/Myths, Behavioral Finance, Investor Sentiment

Market May I?

By, 05/09/2013

May’s upon us, and so are numerous articles debating the benefits of “sell in May.” In the earliest form we can find, the saying went, “Sell in May, and go away; come again on St. Leger’s Day.” It originated in London—then the economic center of the world—at a time when markets would virtually shut down in the summer, while brokers and other financial professionals vacationed. Supposedly, the end was tied to a mid-September horse race (the St. Leger’s Stakes). As a result, trading volumes were much thinner. Thinner volumes can mean less liquidity, and less liquidity can mean tougher price discovery—hence, more volatility. But nowadays, liquidity isn’t much a problem at any time of the year, thanks to new technologies and growing markets. Yet “sell in May” continues to garner headlines.

The old adage that may have started with May as an exit and St. Leger’s Day as a reentry point has evolved to mean … well … we don’t exactly know what. You see, adherents seem to have many different ideas of the timing. And “sell in May” itself doesn’t lay out when the actual selling should occur—May Day? May 31? Or sometime in between? Even if an investor figures out when to sell, there’s conflicting advice about when to buy back in. Some advocate September, others October, some a strict six months and still others November.

Ultimately, this debate stems from claims summer(ish) average returns are worse than winter(ish) returns. And there’s a grain of truth to that: returns from May to October have been slightly lower than returns the rest of the year … but, even with big down years dragging down the averages for some months, cumulative returns in each half of the year were positive. Taken on a monthly basis, only average returns for September are negative, and not by much. (And that fact is skewed by a few big bad Septembers dragging down the average. A function of math, not calendar causation.)

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Interest Rates

Rational Rates

By, 05/08/2013

File this under: Who’da thunk it two years ago? Portugal auctioned 10-year debt on Tuesday at rates likely to be around 5.5% (the yield 10-year notes are fetching in the secondary market). This is a full 120 basis points lower than the prior 10-year auction—over two years ago. Spreads over German bunds are also skinnier: 4.2% compared to a whopping 16% in January 2012.

All terrific news for Portugal. The 10-year auction means Portugal has successfully raised debt at every maturity it currently issues. Even better, Portugal is done financing itself for 2013 and may start auctions to cover 2014 needs.

The news isn’t being met with cheers on all fronts. Portugal isn’t the only low-rated issuer enjoying relatively lower rates—the same is generally true across all forms of low-rated debt. And some argue low rates on “junk” might foster a dangerously blasé attitude toward risk.

Recent Commentary

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
The Global View

We’re (Not) All Turning Japanese

By, 05/24/2013

Japanese stocks swooned Thursday, highlighting what’s been, in our view, mostly an unsustainable, sentiment-driven rally in the country’s markets. For long-term, goal-oriented investors, we believe there are better opportunities outside the land of the rising sun right now.

read more
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Trade

Solar Wars: A (Un)Renewable Hope?

By, 05/22/2013

Over the last few years, it seems governments have been putting more energy into protecting the solar panel industry than the panels themselves produce.

read more
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Market Cycles

All-Time Highs … and Still Undervalued?

By, 05/21/2013

Stocks don’t need gangbusters economic growth in order to keep marching higher.

read more
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Politics

The Return of the Debt Ceiling

By, 05/20/2013

If no calamity or even remotely negative consequence ensued from suspending the debt ceiling for three months, why should it return?

read more
Elisabeth Dellinger
The Global View

Lessons from Bangladesh

By, 05/20/2013

What’s the best way to prevent another catastrophic factory collapse?

read more

Global Market Update

Market Wrap-Up, Thur 23 May 2013

Below is a market summary (as of market close Thursday, 05/23/2013):

  • Global Equities: MSCI World (-1.2%)
  • US Equities: S&P 500 (-0.3%)
  • UK Equities: FTSE 100 (GBP) (-2.1%)
  • Best Country: US (-0.3%)
  • Worst Country: Japan (-4.9%)
  • Best Sector: Energy (-0.5%)
  • Worst Sector: Financials (-2.0%)
  • Bond Yields: 10-year US Treasurys fell 0.02 to 2.02%.