Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast Emerging Markets Update-June 2017

By, 06/23/2017

In this podcast, Communications Group Manager Naj Srinivas speaks with Research Analyst Scott Botterman about recent developments within Emerging Markets and our current outlook.

0:50 – MSCI announces Chinese A shares to be included in Emerging Markets index

Christo Barker
Into Perspective

Victory to En Marche!

By, 06/19/2017
Ratings74.357143

The fourth and final round of French national elections concluded over the weekend, clearing a major milestone in the year of falling political uncertainty. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist La République En Marche! party and its ally, the Democratic Movement (MoDem), gained a clear majority in the National Assembly after winning 61% of the seats (350 of 577) in the second round of the French parliamentary election. (Exhibit 1)

At a surface level, this result technically reduces political gridlock in France. However, the En Marche party is itself an exercise in gridlock, as it is essentially a blend of center-left and center-right politicians. It includes lawmakers that defected from both of the traditional Socialist and Republican Parties. A centrist coalition likely pursues more moderate policies aimed at incremental change rather than broad, sweeping legislation with the potential to really shock markets. For example, the party’s primary policies likely include reforming labor laws, cutting corporate taxes, reducing a bloated civil sector and promoting entrepreneurship. Yet none of the proposals unveiled thus far appear terribly radical. Labor market reforms, for example, appear to dance around third rails like France’s 35-hour workweek. Plus, En Marche is also just over a year old, and over half of its National Assembly members haven’t held any political office before. How well these political novices work with the old guard—and how well the center-right and center-left can agree on policy details—will be worth monitoring, but intraparty gridlock likely creates additional hurdles to legislation.

While one could argue French gridlock could dash hopes for big pro-business reforms, potentially setting up stocks for disappointment, Macron’s relatively watered-down agenda is already widely known. Moreover, having less potential for radical legislation means less chance for new laws to create winners and losers, which reduces one source of risk for markets.  

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: Energy Sector - June 2017

By, 06/13/2017
Ratings303.516667

In this podcast, Communications Group Manager Naj Srinivas talks to Research Analysts Luis Casian and Brad Rotolo about the Energy sector’s recent developments and our current outlook.

00:56 - Major Energy stories
01:48 - OPEC vs. US production
03:50 - What could cause oil to venture out of its recent norm near $50?
05:30 - Recent globalized nature of oil production
07:03 - Technological improvements in fracking
09:15 - Natural gas byproducts
10:13 - US production meets demand

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: Market Update - May 2017

By, 05/15/2017
Ratings623.830645

In this podcast, we talk to US Private Client Services Vice President Erik Renaud about some recent client questions on the market and our current outlook. Topics include all-time market highs, Trump Administration tax and trade policy, European elections and bear market causes. We also discuss some of the economic fundamentals supporting Fisher Investments’ bullish outlook.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: A Re-Introduction to The Ten Roads to Riches

By, 05/11/2017
Ratings754.06

In this podcast, we talk to Content Analyst Elisabeth Dellinger about the recently released second edition of The Ten Roads to Riches.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: Adviser’s Corner - April 2017

By, 04/28/2017
Ratings393.871795

In this podcast, Fisher Investments' US Private Client Services Vice President K.C. Ellis discusses our clients’ common questions from around the country, including retirement planning, homegrown dividends and dollar cost averaging.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: 2017 Market Outlook

By, 03/13/2017
Ratings203.925

In this podcast, Fisher Investments’ Investment Policy Committee discusses their views on capital markets and the economy in 2017.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Reality Check

Market Insights Podcast: Talking Trump and Trade

By, 02/15/2017
Ratings373.27027

In this podcast, we interview Content Analyst Elisabeth Dellinger on recent talk of protectionism, border taxes and trade.

Scott Botterman
Into Perspective

2017: The Year of Falling European Political Uncertainty

By, 01/31/2017
Ratings724.159722

Falling uncertainty gave stocks a tailwind in 2016 as investors moved past the Brexit referendum and US presidential election. By year end, persistent skepticism gave way to budding optimism, and the proverbial “animal spirits” stirred. This year, it should be continental Europe’s turn. France, Germany and the Netherlands all hold national elections, while Italy is expected to call snap elections as well. Many fear populist, non-traditional, anti-EU parties on both the far right and left are on the rise and will grab national power. Though these parties are gaining in polls and winning local elections, they still lack the political infrastructure to meaningfully impact policy or make the market’s most-feared scenarios—like another country’s exit from the EU or even the eurozone—a reality. Thus, when the “worst-case” scenario doesn’t come to pass, the likely result is relief.

European politics are factionalized and scattered. In the US, the two-party system dominates, with minor third party movements cropping up occasionally. But in the parliamentary system—used often in Europe and elsewhere around the globe—there is room for more parties and more platforms. Lately, parties with minority support have popped up across Europe, forcing fragile coalitions and muddying the legislature’s ability to take decisive policy action. This feature alone screams more gridlock than widely imagined, reducing legislative risks for stocks.

Italy

Ben Thistlethwaite
Reality Check

Infrastructure Isn’t Always Industrial Grade

By, 01/23/2017
Ratings1274.03937

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election, many attributed Industrials stocks’ rise to expectations for increased US infrastructure spending—one of Trump’s big campaign promises. However, that doesn’t make it wise to pile into infrastructure-related sectors solely based on Trump’s pledges. It’s still too soon to say exactly what the administration focuses on as the new president formally takes the reins, but expectations for an outsized infrastructure impact have likely outpaced reality.

Already moderating his promises a bit, Trump has lowered his infrastructure spending plan from the campaigned $1 trillion to $550 billion—roughly 3% of GDP. Now $550 billion worth of spending could be impactful if spent all at once (and presuming it didn’t crowd out private investment in the process). However, it’s likely spread out over many years—muting its stimulative power—and probably wouldn’t start until 2018, just in time for midterms. It’s also unrealistic to expect an infrastructure bill—or any bill— to pass through Congress undiluted or without bringing up other political landmines like raising taxes or deficit spending. In other words, there is a lot of potential for gridlock to get in the way.

Updating infrastructure has benefits, but the economy doesn’t need a massive infrastructure bill to keep growing—the private sector has done fine driving most of the growth this expansion. Past infrastructure spending bills haven’t moved the needle because they require years of planning, and spending typically gets bogged down across myriad national government agencies—not to mention conflicts with state and municipal needs. Consider the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which lacked readily available projects and drove little meaningful revenue for Industrials companies. And 2015’s five-year, fully funded (by the Fed’s dividends) $305 billion Highway Bill has thus far had a muted effect, going almost unnoticed.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: How to Read the Modern Financial News

By, 01/19/2017
Ratings363.458333

In this podcast, we talk to Content Group Manager Todd Bliman on how investors can navigate the modern financial news media.

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

MarketMinder Podcast: November 2016 – Assessing Global Macro Drivers

By, 12/12/2016
Ratings74.357143

MarketMinder’s editorial staff sits down with Fisher Investments Capital Markets Analyst Brad Pyles. (Recorded 11/17/2016)

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

MarketMinder Podcast: November 2016 – Energy Update

By, 12/12/2016
Ratings204.15

MarketMinder’s editorial staff sits down with Fisher Investments Capital Markets Analyst Brad Rotolo. (Recorded 11/3/2016)

Austin Fraser
Into Perspective

A Political Update From Korea

By, 12/08/2016
Ratings404.0875

From Brexit and Trump to Italy, Brazil and the Philippines, 2016 has been a year of political upheaval and theatrics. And it isn’t over yet. South Korean President Park Geun-hye is embroiled in an influence peddling scandal that has outraged the country and likely numbered her days in office. She has offered to step down from office in April 2017—10 months before her term is slated to end—but lawmakers in the National Assembly instead introduced an impeachment bill, which gets a vote Friday December 9. While Park’s political fall looks inevitable, Korea’s political issues needn’t derail its other positive drivers. For global investors, whether or not you own any Emerging Markets stocks, this is another lesson in the importance of thinking long-term and not getting hung up on short-term events.

The movement against Park appears more about her actions (which you can read all about here), not a broader distaste with the government or the state of society. After decades of chaebol (Korea’s huge, family-run mega conglomerates/corporate fiefdoms) dominating political decisions and the economy, corruption has emerged as the societal cause du jour (see this summer’s draconian corruption bill), and Park appears a victim of the times. The scandal also coincides with some economic softness, as a slowdown in global trade hit export-oriented businesses hard. In response, the country’s largest sectors—which account for a fifth of GDP and employ nearly 15% of the workforce—have undergone significant corporate restructuring. More recently, scandals at several chaebol only further weighed on sentiment.

South Korea has also faced some geopolitical uncertainty in recent months. Besides long-running issues with North Korea, which has made progress in its nuclear program, new tensions with China have arisen as South Korea recently deployed an advanced US missile system. In addition, Donald Trump’s victory made many call into question the future of Asia’s trade relationship with the US given his campaign rhetoric and dismissal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. There is also a potential domestic political headwind, as the legislature’s opposition party favors tax hikes, with eight different proposals put in the supplementary budget bills. With one of the world’s stronger fiscal positions (40% debt to GDP), such a move makes little economic sense, but the negative fallout is likely short term. 

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Recent Research

Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast Emerging Markets Update-June 2017

By, 06/23/2017

In this podcast, Communications Group Manager Naj Srinivas speaks with Research Analyst Scott Botterman about recent developments within Emerging Markets and our current outlook.

read more
Christo Barker
Into Perspective

Victory to En Marche!

By, 06/19/2017
Ratings74.357143

The passing of Sunday’s French parliamentary elections adds to Europe’s streak of falling political uncertainty.  

read more
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: Energy Sector - June 2017

By, 06/13/2017
Ratings303.516667

In this podcast, Communications Group Manager Naj Srinivas talks to Research Analysts Luis Casian and Brad Rotolo about the Energy sector’s recent developments and our current outlook.

read more
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: Market Update - May 2017

By, 05/15/2017
Ratings623.830645

In this podcast, we talk to US Private Client Services Vice President Erik Renaud about some recent client questions on the market and our current outlook.

read more
Fisher Investments Editorial Staff
Into Perspective

Market Insights Podcast: A Re-Introduction to The Ten Roads to Riches

By, 05/11/2017
Ratings754.06

In this podcast, we talk to Content Analyst Elisabeth Dellinger about the recently released second edition of The Ten Roads to Riches.

 

read more

Global Market Update

Market Wrap-Up, Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Below is a market summary as of market close Tuesday, June 27, 2017:

  • Global Equities: MSCI World (-0.5%)
  • US Equities: S&P 500 (-0.8%)
  • UK Equities: MSCI UK (+0.1%)
  • Best Country: Austria (+1.8%)
  • Worst Country: Israel (-1.0%)
  • Best Sector: Financials (+0.6%)
  • Worst Sector: Information Technology (-1.5%)

Bond Yields: 10-year US Treasury yields rose 0.07 percentage point to 2.20%.

 

Editors' Note: Tracking Stock and Bond Indexes

 

Source: FactSet. Unless otherwise specified, all country returns are based on the MSCI index in US dollars for the country or region and include net dividends. S&P 500 returns are presented including gross dividends. Sector returns are the MSCI World constituent sectors in USD including net dividends.