Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—March 18 - March 22

In the US, the March S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 52.5 and 51.7, respectively. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index increased 0.1% m/m in February—beating expectations. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left the fed-funds target range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.5%.

In the UK, the March S&P Global Flash UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.9 and 53.4, respectively. February retail sales were flat m/m and fell 0.4% y/y, beating expectations. Consumer prices rose 3.4% y/y in February while core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) increased 4.5% y/y, both slightly below estimates. The Bank of England kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%. In the eurozone, the March HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 45.7 and 51.1, respectively. February final consumer prices rose 2.6% y/y while final core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) increased 3.1% y/y.

In China, January-February industrial production rose 7.0% y/y. Retail sales rose 5.5% y/y in January-February—above forecasts. In Japan, the March Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI was 48.2. February consumer prices rose 2.8% y/y while core-core consumer prices (excluding fresh food and energy) increased 3.2% y/y. January industrial production fell 6.7% m/m and 1.5% y/y. February imports rose 0.5% y/y while exports rose 7.8% y/y. The Bank of Japan lifted its key short-term interest rate target range to 0.0% – 0.1%. While abandoning negative interest rates could be welcome news for businesses, we don’t think it significantly alters Japan’s economic fundamentals. For more, please see our 3/19/2024 commentary, “BoJ Takes a Small Step in the Right Direction.”

The Week Ahead:

The US releases its third estimate of Q4 2023 GDP. The UK releases Q4 2023 trade data and its second estimate of Q4 2023 GDP. The US releases February preliminary durable goods orders and new home sales. The eurozone reports February money supply (M3). Japan releases February preliminary retail sales, unemployment, trade and industrial production data. China reports March manufacturing and services PMIs.

Tip of the Week:

US financial markets and Fisher Investments’ offices will be closed on Friday, March 29 in observance of Good Friday.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.