| An Optimal Debt Level for Countries Is NOT Zero
Many investors fear government debt, believing economic performance would improve if a nation had little or no debt. But basic economics and history teaches this isn’t so. Just as corporations can responsibly use leverage to grow and increase profits, so can developed nations. When a government incurs debt, capital is eventually passed to private corporations and individuals who use it as they see fit, and our economy benefits. Further (as we can check history to see), even at higher levels of debt as a percent of GDP, America has experienced healthy GDP growth and market returns. By contrast, when America has had lower relative levels of debt, economic growth hasn’t been as robust.
Asset Allocation Is the Most Important Decision
In its simplest form, asset allocation is the decision to hold stocks, bonds, or cash—and in what percentages—in a portfolio. Asset allocation historically has influenced portfolio returns more than any other single factor; potentially upwards of 90 percent of portfolio performance.
Average Returns Aren’t Normal. Normal Returns Are Extreme.
Yearly market returns rarely meet long-term market averages. Rather, they are most often extreme. Though US stocks have historically averaged about 10% yearly over long time periods, only rarely does the US stock market post an annual return of about 10%—and the same is true for global stocks.
Source: Global Financial Data
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