November Italy industrial production
Eurozone December industrial production
Germany and Italy December CPI
UK December CPI and PPI
US December PPI and retail sales
US November business inventories
US January Empire State manufacturing survey
Independently, regional manufacturing surveys say little about overall US or global economy. Their results often tend to reflect short-term conditions driven by local industries rather than national trends. So whatever the result here, it’s worth taking with a grain of salt.
Japan November machine orders
Congress votes on a $51 billion Hurricane Sandy Aid package
US December CPI, industrial production
US January housing market index
China Q4 GDP, December industrial production and retail sales
Following China’s leadership transition mid-November, Q3 GDP grew 7.4% y/y in line with expectations and just slightly below the 7.6% pace a quarter earlier. Following better-than-expected export trade growth in December, overall loan growth for the year clocked in at 8.2 trillion yuan (versus the unofficial target of 8 trillion), and December M2 growth clocked in at 13.8%, its likely growth hits the government’s full year target of 7.5%.
US December housing starts
US weekly jobless claims
Overall, the general trend of improvement in employment data continues. Recall, ADP private payrolls rose 215k in December, driven by medium and large business growth and easily beating expectations of 140k. The BLS employment situation report confirmed that result, showing payrolls rose 155k vs. expectations of 152k. Overall growth was led by private payrolls, while government payrolls saw losses due largely to cuts at the local level. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 7.8% due to 192k people reentering the workforce. That the labor market continues to chase economic growth shouldn’t be a surprise. Growth begets the need for hiring, and contractions beget the need to reduce headcount. That’s why, through history, recessions tend to start at or near cyclical unemployment lows. Low unemployment doesn’t prevent economic contractions—it’s a symptom of past economic strength. The reverse is true after recession—employment gains can take some time.
US weekly Fed balance sheet and money supply
US January Philadelphia Fed survey
Japan November tertiary index
New Zealand Q4 CPI
UK December retail sales
US January consumer sentiment